Tag: forum

Liberals held dominant lead at start of New Brunswick campaign

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In this photo, displayed at federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s Flickr feed, Brian Gallant addresses a rally in Fredericton. A new poll from Forum Research says Gallant stands a good chance of being New Brunswick’s premier.
Click here to see more photos of Trudeau’s visit to Gallant’s rally in Fredericton.

Brian Gallant’s New Brunswick Liberal Party held a commanding lead over incumbent Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward as the province’s 38th general election opened,  the first public domain poll of the campaign concludes.

The poll, done by Toronto-based Forum Research  and released Saturday, said Gallant’s Liberals had the support of 46% of voters compared to Alward’s PCs at 31%. The New Brunswick NDP, led by Dominic Cardy, was at 15% while the New Brunswick Greens led by David Coon were at 7%. Continue reading Liberals held dominant lead at start of New Brunswick campaign

About those by-election polls …

Abacus Data is Sun News Network’s polling partner and David Coletto is Abacus’ CEO. Tonight, on Battleground on Sun News Network, Coletto and I take a look at the work the only polling firm active in the recent by-elections did. That firm was Forum, whose polls we’ve reported on from time to time.

While Forum polls seemed to be pretty close to getting the vote right in Bourassa and Toronto Centre, it wildly over-estimated the Liberal vote in Brandon Souris and seriously over-estimated the Conservative vote in Provencher.  For serious number crunchers, Eric Grenier goes over this at his site –– but here, Coletto and I wonder – could these polls have had an effect on the results?