Wait a minute: Mulcair's NDP says Andrea Horwath's NDP beat Christine Elliott?

Oh dear. I think the federal NDP has mixed things up terribly.

Check out this invitation from the federal NDP to a rally featuring NDP leader Thomas Mulcair in the riding of Whitby-Oshawa, where a by-election is underway — they vote on Monday — because of the death of former finance minister and MP Jim Flaherty. I have bolded the important bits:

Dear [Name redacted by Akin]
With just one week left until voters go to the polls in Whitby-Oshawa, Tom Mulcair will be in town for a special campaign rally – and you’re invited to join.
Here are the details – RSVP today:
WHAT: Whitby-Oshawa campaign rally with Tom Mulcair and NDP candidate Trish McAuliffe
WHEN: Wednesday, November 12th at 6:30pm
WHERE: 1540 Dundas Street East, Whitby
RSVP here: https://action.ndp.ca/page/event/detail/ndpeventvnementdunpd/wrbj
The riding of Whitby-Oshawa is traditionally a Conservative stronghold – but just a few months ago New Democrats won this seat provincially.
Now we’re fighting to repeat that victory federally and elect Trish McAuliffe, a strong local leader ready to get to work for you and your family in Whitby-Oshawa.
Join Tom Mulcair and Trish McAuliffe at a special campaign rally this Wednesday

See you there,
Canada’s New Democrats

Here’s the problem: The provincial riding of Whitby-Oshawa has been held by Progressive Conservative Christine Elliott since 2007. Elliott, as you may know, is the widow of Flaherty. In Ontario right now, federal ridings map identically on to provincial ridings. So Whitby-Oshawa has been the Elliott-Flaherty stronghold for a while now.

Now, the NDP did have some success nearby this year, taking the provincial riding of Oshawa, next door to Whitby-Oshawa, in this spring’s Ontario election. Jennifer French was the winning New Democrat, knocking off Progressive Conservative Jerry Ouellette who had held the riding since 1995.

But Whitby-Oshawa for the NDP? Well, McAuliffe was on the ballot in the 2011 general election. She finished 2nd to Flaherty though it was not close. Flaherty got more than 58% or more than 38,000 votes cast. McAuliffe got 22% or 14,000 votes. The Liberal candidate, Trevor Bardens, was third with 9,000 votes or 14%.

The Liberals, though, are mildly bullish about their chances in Monday’s by-election if only because once upon a time they held this riding. That was Judi Longfield, who was MP from here from 2004-2006 when Flaherty took over.

But an NDP victory here? Hasn’t happened yet.

The vote is on Monday.