Polls galore

A couple of new polls are out for everyone to chew over for those trying to figure out when the next federal  election campaign might happen.

Here’s the national picture from SES Research:

• Conservative Party – 33%
• Liberal – 33%
• NDP – 17%
• BQ – 10%
• Green Party – 7%

SES polled 913 Canadians by phone between February 2nd and 8th, and says the national results are accurate to within 3.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

And here’s the view from Leger Marketing. Their sample is a little bigger and, as a result, their margin of error is a little smaller:

• Conservative Party – 33%
• Liberal – 27%
• NDP – 12%
• BQ – 7%
• Green Party – 6%

Leger polled 1,500 Canadians between January 30 and February 4, 2007 and says that their results are accurate to within 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

Now both pollsters took a look at support in the two most populous provinces, Ontario and Quebec. These results are less accurate but here they are nonetheless. (N=Number of people survedy; MoE=equals margin of error, 19 times out of 20, the number in parentheses () indicates the change since pollster’s last survey)

SES:

Quebec (N=234, MoE ±6.5)
BQ – 39% (-11)
Liberal – 27% (+2)
Conservative Party – 20% (+8)
NDP – 8% (-2)
Green Party – 6% (+2)

Ontario (N=262, MoE ±6.1, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal – 38% (-6)
Conservative – 36% (no change)
NDP – 19% (+3)
Green Party – 8% (+3)

Leger:

Quebec (N=337, MoE ±not provided)
BQ – 31%
Liberal – 32%
Conservative Party – 24%
NDP – 6%
Green Party – 5%

Ontario (N=500, MoE – not provided)
Liberal – 35%
Conservative – 40%
NDP – 16%
Green Party – 8%