Apparently you would not. And, because of that, The Conference Board of Canada — an independent economic think tank based in Ottawa – concludes that food manufacturing may in fact be a recession-proof industry. It believes that profits for food manufacturers in 2009 will come close to the record-high levels of profits made in 2008:
“Demand for everyday products such as food is not particularly sensitive to economic conditions, so the food manufacturing industry in Canada is expected to come through the economic turmoil without suffering too much,” said Valerie Poulin, Economist.
Food is one of the most overlooked components of the Canadian economy. Food and beverages are the single largest component of retail sales, and food processing is the largest component of Canada’s manufacturing sector in terms of jobs.
Food processors may be affected by changing tastes and diets, and consumers may choose cheaper products over premium ones, but total food consumption is not expected to drop significantly due to the recession. Production of food products is expected to decrease by less than 1 per cent in 2009. Profits are expected to fall from their peak of $4.6 billion in 2008 to $4.3 billion this year and remain close to that level throughout the next four years.
I think the problem is that we would eat the same amount, but perhaps make less healthy choices. In good economic times, it may not be a stretch to buy a $5 container of rasberries, but in tough economic times people will choose cheap junk food instead.
This problem was raised recently by the Heart and Stroke Foundation in its study on the affordability of food in Canada. I blogged about it here:
http://www.phdinparenting.com/2009/02/24/affordability-of-healthy-foods/
Annie