Races to watch: British Columbia and the North

Some quick observations on B.C. and the Arctic ridings:

BRITISH COLUMBIA

BURNABY-DOUGLAS
BURNABY-NEW WESTMINSTER

Early in the campaign, Conservatives were boasting about knocking out NDP incumbents Peter Siksay in DOUGLAS and Peter Julian in NEW WESTMINSTER which, frankly, surprised me. I don't think the Tories are boasting any more. There will likely be gains in B.C. for the blue team but in these two ridings, Orange stands tall.

ESQUIMALT-JUAN DE FUCA
The Green vote nationally could be in the high single digits but in this riding, held by Liberal Keith Martin, it could be as high as 15 per cent. Even worse for Martin, Green voters could be mostly former Liberals. That could help Conservative Troy DeSouza squeak threw here in a riding with a big military component, thanks to CFB Comox.

FLEETWOOD-PORT KELLS
Conservative incumbent Nina Grewal has won twice here but last time she squeaked by Liberal Brenda Locke with less than 1,000 votes. If Liberals are finally finding their feet in B.C. and are looking for a win, Locke is back to take on Grewal.

KAMLOOPS-THOMPSON-CARIBOO
Conservative incumbent Betty Hinton is retiring and Cathy McLeod steps up to see if she can take her place. The NDP, though, think they're poised for a steal here with Michael Crawford.

NORTH VANCOUVER
RICHMOND

In NORTH VANCOUVER, former mayor and Liberal incumbent Don Bell should be fine. And in RICHMOND, former cabinet minister Raymond Chan should be fine, too. Should be. But the numbers at one point weren't looking good for either Bell or Chan. But then, in RICHMOND, Conservative candidate Alice Wong has been caught saying some oddly reactionary things and that might help Chan. But the Tories are at the gates in both ridings and pounding hard.

SAANICH-GULF ISLANDS
The incumbent here is Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn. Sources tell me he's in trouble. Sources tell me he's not. Yes he is. No he's not. And so on … What I do know is that some polls before the debate had Lunn at 38 per cent. But here, the NDP candidate ceased to campaign (though will still be on the ballot) after it emerged that he emerged from his clothes a few years back in front of a few teenaged girls. So, if the NDP and Green decide to support Liberal Briony Penn, she's in. Penn has a Ph.D but is notable in B.C. political circles for riding topless on a horse, a la Lady Godiva, during a protest in Vancouver once. I bet this will be one of the last races to be declared on Tuesday night.

SURREY NORTH
The ghost of Chuck Cadman still haunts this campaign in the form of accusations by Liberals that Cadman was offered a bribed to vote with the government in late 2005. Harper, himself, is suing the Liberals for slander. Meanwhile, Cadman's widow Dona is running for the Conservatives in a seat where there is no incumbent, thanks to the retirement of NDP MP Penny Priddy.

VANCOUVER CENTRE
This could be the wackiest race of the entire night and, in my view, the one riding that actually could elect a Green MP. Here we have incumbent Liberal Hedy Fry battling Green party deputy leader Adriane Carr, former provincial Liberal cabinet minister turned Conservative candidate Lorne Mayencourt and UBC professor and pundit Michael Byers. According to one party's independent polling before the debates, all four were at 24 per cent. Someone could win this thing with 27 per cent. As they say in sports betting, pick 'em!

VANCOUVER QUADRA
WEST VANCOUVER-SUNSHINE COAST-SEA-TO-SKY COUNTRY

In QUADRA, Joyce Murray just eked out a byelection victory for the Liberals a few months ago but she may not have the seat for long. This, along with SUNSHINE COAST, are the best chances the Conservatives have to win a seat in Vancouver proper. SUNSHINE COAST is held by Blair Wilson who was elected as a Liberal, got tossed from his caucus after some personal finance irregularities surfaced, and, after sitting as independent for a spell, decided to become the first-ever Green Party MP. Wilson never actually took his seat in the House of Commons as a Green since he crossed during the summer recess. And he likely won't ever get the chance to sit in the Commons again. Until Wilson, this riding had been Tory John Reynolds' fiefdom. It goes back to the blue team Tuesday.

THE NORTH

YUKON
Liberal Larry Bagnell is beloved in the Yukon. Not only will he win again, but, word has reached the rumour mills in Ottawa that he's getting married. Congrats! Whoops — word reached the rumour mills about a summer too late! Larry got married last summer. The big news is that he's about to be a dad.

NUNAVUT
It's a long flight up and back to Iqaluit, the biggest settlement in this eastern Arctic riding, but three leaders have made the trip in this campaign. Liberal MP Nancy Karetak-Lindell is retiring and everyone, it seems, is gunning for this one. The Conservatives have a former provincial health and finance minister running for them and, my sources tell me, Leona Aglukkaq is the first Inuit woman to make cabinet if the Tories are elected. (Would she be the first Inuit of either gender? Looking that up …) Meanwhile, the Liberal candidate Kirt Ejesiak is widely seen as very capable as is the NDP candidate Paul Irngaut. Oh — and I'm told it's the first time we've seen an all-Inuit race here.

WESTERN ARCTIC
Dennis Bevington is the NDP incumbent but, here again, the Conservatives think they have cabinet material if Brendan Bell can win. Bell is a former finance minister in the territorial government.

Technorati Tags:
elections