New Democrats this weekend elected Thomas Mulcair, the MP for Outremont, to be Jack Layton’s successor.
With that election, the slate of leaders who will present themselves to the Canadian electorate in 2015 for prime minister is four-fifths complete. Mulcair will lead the New Democrats. Stephen Harper (one assumes) will lead the Conservatives. Elizabeth May will lead the Green Party and Daniel Paillé will lead the Bloc Québecois.
So far, the question of who will lead the Liberals in that election is yet to be decided.
So for now, we have four men and one woman.
If the next general election is indeed held on Oct. 19, 2015, Mulcair will be within a week of turning 61. Harper will be 56. Paillé will be 65. May will be 61.
Should the Liberals stick with interim leader Bob Rae, they will be running a male candidate who is 67.
Now if the Liberals are thinking that their path to return to power will take at least two elections — I think there is no reasonable way to think there is a path back to power for them in 2015 — and for arguments sake let’s assume the 44th general election is in 2019, Rae would be 71.
Will this be something the Liberals and Rae himself is considering as they now ponder their leadership situation? Just for the sheer sake of presenting something significantly different to the electorate, might a female leader who is now at least younger than Harper and perhaps not even 50 make more sense?
It seems to have made sense to many other political parties in other Canadian jurisdictions who were looking for “renewal” as a first step to hold on to power or achieve power.
The Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta, in power for decades and led mostly by middle-aged or older men, and knowing that unless it can convince voters there that it can in fact renew itself it may not win power, chose a woman, Alison Redford, who just turned 47. Her chief opponent will be another woman — an all-female battle that is a first for Canadian politics in senior jurisdictions — named Danielle Smith, who will turn 41 on April 1.
Further west, in British Columbia, the Liberal Party of British Columbia, also in power for a very long time and facing a “renewal” issue chose a woman, Christy Clark, to replace Gordon Campbell. Clark is 46. Her chief challenger is New Democrat Adrian Dix who will be 48 at year-end.
In Ontario last fall, Dalton McGuinty, at age 56, saw his majority reduced to a minority as Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak, who was 43 at the time of the election, and New Democratic Leader — a woman again — Andrea Horwath, who was 48.
Saskatchewan’s Premier Brad Wall is a youthful 46. He was 38 when he won the leadership of the Saskatchewan Party, which was, at the time, a relatively new entity of the right in provincial politics and was searching for ways to overcome long-time NDP governments. (When Wall beat New Democrat Lorne Calvert, Calvert was 58.)
Looking east, Newfoundland and Labrador’s Progressive Conservatives, long in power under Danny Williams, looked a little ‘renewed’ by choosing a woman, Kathy Dunderdale, who, at age 59, became her province’s first female premier.
All of which is to say: There are any number of factors that party members would likely consider as they look to renew their party under a new leader. But looking around the country, many parties facing renewal issues, chose someone younger or of a different gender than their predecessor.
The federal New Democrats this weekend were not so much interested in renewal (as I judge it, anyhow) but interested in power. And for that goal, choosing a new leader of the same gender and roughly the same generation seemed less of a problem. They certainly had choices on their leadership menu who were younger and of a different gender than their last leader.
And so we come back to the federal Liberal party, a party which, for nearly a decade has been struggling with renewal issues and, for nearly a decade, has been replacing one leader after another with one of roughly the same age and of the same gender.
Are they ready to do that again and send a 67-year-old white guy into battle into 2015 against an incumbent who is 12-years his junior?
The fix is in and Bob Rae will be appointed leader next year. Yes there will be a race but not really. First of all there is nobody in that moribund caucus who is capable of leading a one man band. The stalwarts of the party who have any credibility have left i.e. Frank McKenna and John Manley and are certainly not interested in coming back to lead what is left of the party.
However, there are problems with a Rae candidacy and the Conservatives offered a shot across the bow of the Liberal party in essence telling them what they have to look forward to if they go with Rae. Rae is old. He is arrogant and smacks of the old school. He has a ton of baggage that hangs like an albatross around his neck and the Libs will be taking an awful chance if they appoint Rae. Ontarians have long memories and so does the rest of Canada.
It’s fine and dandy to have equality, but shouldn’t it be the person the most capable of doing the job that should be chosen? All the females who are in power right now haven’t faced an election. Christy Clark has a strong chance of losing in B.C. (to my great despair as I do not support the NDP in B.C. They almost ruined us). I have nothing against females (I am one) but I attach much more importance to ability than gender. I agree age is important. A younger person has more energy, but a middle-age person has more experience. I say 50-60 is not too old.
I do not care about whether or not their are women leading a party, but they can sometimes offer a refreshing change. Rae’s age is a factor — to some extent with respect to assuming office — but where are younger people to get experience in Opposition if he is at the helm for the next eight years. This is not particularly forward looking, as it is important that younger people be given a chance to grow in the job.
hollinm: “Rae is old. He is arrogant and smacks of the old school.”
There are many things you can say about Rae and his policies, beliefs, and so on, but if you know anything at all about him you really can’t call him “arrogant”. Listen to his speeches – no, not the sound bites, the full speeches. It won’t hurt, they are usually quite good, spoken off the cuff without telepromters. Feel free not to agree with him, but arrogant? Really, you can’t justify that if you’ve spent any time at all listening to him beyond the attack ads. He knows the background of the topics he talks about, and will debate respectfully – in town halls even lets opponents (and even hecklers!) speak and will respond to them in an intelligent way.
I know that politics today is about attack and not respect, but that’s still no reason you shouldn’t spend time listening – even if you don’t agree.
And no, I don’t think Rae should be leader – Marc Garneau would be my choice. Also a person of reason and balance.
Kathy Dunderdale faced an election and won a large majority.
Doesn’t the new leader also have to be a Quebec Francophone? There’s a pretty unmistakable trend there going back as far as Laurier. Garneau’s got that going for him.
I am hoping Rae will step down and actively help the LPC recruit someone like Mark Carney as the new leader. The Liberals need a solid leader like Mark whom is not a career politician and has already lead Canada economically.