As all the campaigns hunker down this long weekend and prepare for the final push to election day on May 2, we are starting to see some seat projections pop up. I must confess: I find it difficult to put a lot of faith in seat projection projects simply because I believe it difficult to trust some of the underlying regional and metropolitan data upon which such seat projections are based. For example: Has anybody got a really good poll sample for Saskatchewan? I think many pundits and campaigns themselves are assuming that, except for Ralph Goodale in Regina, it's likely going to a Tory wash through that province. My gut though tells that some Conservatives are going to find themselves in some very tough battles with the NDP in that province particularly if the Liberal vote in that province collapses. If you look at vote totals in past elections for many races there, particularly around Saskatoon, the Conservatives have benefitted from coming up the middle between a split Liberal-NDP vote. If opposition to the Conservatives coalesces around the NDP, I'd say watch out …
Still, seat projections are a kind of catnip to political junkies. So with that preamble, here's a few.
The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy has a strengthened minority Conservative government:
- Conservative: 149
- Liberal: 68
- NDP: 52
- Bloc Quebecois: 39
- Green/Other 0
Here's the calculations from Fair Vote Canada, which has a whopping Conservative majority and a wholesale diminution of the BQ, published this morning on the front page of The Ottawa Citizen:
- Conservative: 201
- Liberal: 53
- NDP: 48
- Bloc Quebecois: 4
- Green/Other: 0
Eric Grenier's (fascinating) ongoing project at ThreeHundredEight.Com also has a strengthened Conservative minority today:
- Conservative: 150
- Liberal: 76
- Bloc Quebecois: 45
- NDP: 36
- Green/Other: 0
For your reference here's the seat total at dissolution of the 40th Parliament:
- Conservative: 143
- Liberal: 77
- Bloc Quebecois: 47
- NDP: 36
- Independent: 2
Fair Vote Canada is making no seat projections. We have a new online tool at http://FairVote.Ca into which you can put any numbers you want and the tool will attempt to show you the discrepancy between what our current voting system would produce compared to a proportional voting system.
The numbers discussed were generated using the latest Ipsos-Reid poll, which shows the Conservatives at 43% and the NDP and Liberals tied at about 25%. If you accept the poll results, the projection is valid. These numbers would generate a Conservative landslide.
But it's just one poll on one day. Other polls released on the same day show the Conservatives at 36-39%.
Wayne Smith
Executive Director
Fair Vote Canada
Around Saskatoon, there was only one close race in 2008!!! Saskatoon Humbolt – Conservative won by over 8000 votes with 54%, Saskatoon Wanuskewin Conservatives won by over 10000 votes with 57 %, Blackstrap – Conservative won by over 10000 votes again with 54 %. How does any slip in Liberal votes to the NDP give the NDP any seats in Saskatchewan?