Polls: Ipsos-Reid gives Liberals narrow lead on eve of election

Ipsos-Reid, in a poll released Saturday, has the Liberals slightly ahead on the eve of a general election:

“According to the latest Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News, the governing Liberal Party, with 34% of voter support (-2 points from a poll conducted last week), holds a slim lead over their chief rivals, the Conservatives (30%, +3 points). Meanwhile, the NDP at 16% (unchanged) and the Green Party (5%, -1 point) hold steady. And in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is up 9 points and now hold 59% of federal votes in this province versus 23% for the federal Liberals (-5 points).

But Ipsos believes the Liberals are vulnerable:

Forty-two percent of Canadians (up 3 points from 39% last week) agree with the statement that “I'd be comfortable voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to form the government in the next election because we'll probably have another minority government which will keep them in check”.

This poll was conducted Nov. 22 to Nov. 24. A thousand Canadians were surveyed. Ipsos says this poll is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

If you win one of these, I guess you ought to brag a bit …

The other night in Toronto, I won a Gemini award for Best Reportage.

Gemini

That’s the publicity shot on the left. The one on the bottom is a snap, taken by the official awards photographer, as I delivered my thank you speech. That’s Global National anchor Kevin Newman standing off to the right. He was the presenter of the award in this category.

 CTV also won big. My show, CTV News with Lloyd Robertson, won the Gemini for Best Newscast and CTV’s weekly newsmagazine show W5 won the Gemini for Best News or Information Series.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gemini thank you

Ramping up

OK, we’re back.

Very shortly, though, this blog will be moving to CTV’s site.

I’ll be on the bus with Conservative leader Stephen Harper for the first two weeks of the campaign and then I’ll spend a week with NDP leader Jack Layton. (left) If CTV has plans for coverage beyond week three, they haven’t told me.

Jack Layton - NDP LeaderFor those readers from another country, let me give you the backstory:

Canada has a parliamentary democracy based on the British system. The government is formed by the party with the most MPs in our House of Commons. Right now, the Liberal Party of Canada is the governing party and Paul Martin is the Prime Minister. He was elected in June 2004. The problem for Martin, however, is that he was elected with a minority government. That is: The combined votes of all MPs from political parties that are not Liberals is greater than those from MPs who are Liberals.

And so after about a year-and-half of a relatively shakys minority government, Martin has lost the “confidence” of the House of Commons, i.e. the MPs who are not Liberals. On Monday, at about 6:30 pm Ottawa time, those MPs will vote ‘no confidence’ in Martin’s government. Martin will do what prime minister’s are supposed to do when their government fails to win the confidence of the House: He will ask the Governor-General to dissolve Parliament and call a general election.

And so, on Tuesday, we will be on the campaign trail.

No one’s quite sure, yet, when the election will be but the best political gossip has it pegged for Monday January 23.

 

General elections and religious holidays

If Prime Minister Paul Martin's government is defeated, it will be up to Martin to pick a date for the next general election.

The favourite guess among the political chatterboxes is MONDAY JANUARY 16. A second choice is MONDAY JANUARY 9. There is some talk about MONDAY JANUARY 3 but many discount that. Recently, some have speculated about MONDAY JANUARY 23.

Martin now says if the politicians force him into a January election, it will stomp on various religious holidays.

Many academic and other organizations routinely account for religious observances as they plan their institutional calendar. The University of Toronto, for example, circulates an annual memo  cautioning administrators to avoid scheduling exams, etc. on religious observance days.

Here, then, is a list of holidays, religious and otherwise, between now and the end of January culled from that list and a variety of other sources. Let me know if you see something that's incorrect or missing:

  • November 24: Guru Tegh Bahadur’s Martyrdom (Sikh)
  • November 24: Thanksgiving (USA)
  • November 26: Day of Covenant (Bahai)
  • November 28: Ascension of Abdul-Baha (Bahai)
  • December 8: Feast of the Immaculate Conception (Roman Catholic)
  • December 12: Feast Day – Our Lady of Guadalupe (Roman Catholic)
  • December 21: Yule Winter Solstice (Wicca)
  • December 25: Christmas (Roman Catholic, Protestant, Eastern, Greek and Russian Orthodox)
  • December 26: First Day of Hanukkah (Jewish)
  • December 26 -January 2: Kwanzaa
  • January 1: New Year’s Day
  • January 2: Eighth Day of Hanukkah (Jewish)
  • JANUARY 3: POSSIBLE FEDERAL ELECTION DAY
  • January 5: Guru Gobind Singh’s Birth (Sikh)
  • January 6: Feast of the Epiphany (Roman Catholic, Eastern, Greek and Russian Orthodox)
  • January 6: Christmas (Armenian)
  • January 6: Feast of the Epiphany (Christian)
  • January 8: Waqf al Arafa (Islam)
  • JANUARY 9: POSSIBLE FEDERAL ELECTION DAY
  • January 10 -13 Feast of Sacrifice (Eid of Adha or Eid-al-Adha ) (Islamic) [Date is approximate with sighting of the moon]
  • January 14: Maha Shivaratri (Hindu)
  • January 14: Maghi (Sikh)
  • January 14: Mahayana Buddhist New Year (Buddhist)
  • January 15: World Religion Day (Bahai)
  • JANUARY 16: POSSIBLE FEDERAL ELECTION DAY
  • JANUARY 23: POSSIBLE FEDERAL ELECTION DAY
  • January 29: New Year (Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese)
  • January 31: New Year (Islamic) [Date is approximate with sighting of the moon]
  • February 17: St. Vartanantz Day (Armenian)

Jack Layton: "A sensible solution'

The NDP just distributed the text of a statement leader Jack Layton read in Vancouver today:

 “I’d like to propose a common sense solution to the situation before Parliament today. In the spring, we kept Parliament going because the Liberals agreed to some of our good ideas. This fall, we put forward proposals but unfortunately the Liberals chose not to work with us to get things done for people.

The NDP cannot and will not express confidence in a government that won’t get things done. And we cannot condone the Liberal Party’s unethical conduct as outlined by Justice Gomery.

Nobody wants a Christmas election. I don’t want one. Canadians don’t want one, and it shouldn’t happen.
Nor has the Liberal Party earned the right to decide for itself the timing of when it should be judged. People didn’t elect an unaccountable majority, and all parties need to show compromise.

I believe there’s a common sense solution. There are other choices before us than a Christmas election nobody wants and the Liberal Party believing it has the sole right to determine when its conduct is judged.

The New Democratic Party is prepared to introduce a motion on November 24 on our opposition day. We cannot express confidence in this government’s inaction on things that matter. Cannot condone its record.

In that motion, we will call for an election to be called in early January for an election in mid-February.
This avoids the Christmas election nobody wants. I believe that’s important.
It allows Parliament to pass the housekeeping laws before it and for the First Ministers’ Meeting on Aboriginal issues to occur.

And it provides the needed opportunity to clean up Canadian politics so it can get back to what it should be about: Getting things done for people.

That’s what the NDP did in this Parliament and we’re proud of it. We will be asking for your vote so we can get more done for you. If our proposal is accepted, we won’t be doing that over Christmas and that’s a good thing.”

Layton then answer questions from some media attending the event.

Canada's "chronic inability" to get anything done on the environment, Part I

Johanne GelinasSome notes from the 2005 Report of the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development, released Sept. 29. The commissioner is Johanne Gelinas (left), currently in the fifth year of her term.

“A recurring theme throughout this year's Report is that the federal government suffers from a chronic inability to see its own initiatives to completion; it starts out but rarely, if ever, reaches the finish line” [The Commissioner’s Perspective, p. 4]

“Safe drinking water is a basic requirement of human health, and Canadians assume that the water they drink will be of high quality in a developed country like ours. The truth, however, is that when federal responsibility is involved, not all Canadians can assume that their drinking water is always safe. The government is not working hard enough to protect Canadians from unsafe drinking water.” [The Commissioner’s Perspective,  p. 5]

“In examining federal responsibilities for the safety of drinking water, we found gaps that may put people's health at risk. “ [The Commissioner’s Perspective,  p. 5]

Gelinas says that in 2001, an audit by Indian and Northern Affairs Canada found a significant risk to the quality or safety of drinking water in three-quarters of the water systems in First Nations Communities. The feds approved a First Nations Water Management Strategy in 2003. This five-year initiative was funded with $600–million.

“Expectations were raised that the 1996 Oceans Act and the 2002 Canada's Oceans Strategy would help solve these problems; however, those expectations have not been met. The main tools of the Oceans Act—integrated management plans and marine protected areas—have not accomplished the desired results. Fisheries and Oceans Canada has fallen far short of meeting its commitments to develop and implement these tools.” [

[The Commissioner’s Perspective,  p. 5]

 

 

 

 

Corporate tax cuts a victim of politics

Coming out of Question Period in the House of Commons today, Finance Minister Ralph Goodale said he was canning new corporate tax cuts because he didn’t believe he could push them through a minority Parliament — a Parliament where he’ll need support of at least one, and likely two, opposition parties isn order to get any tax cuts passed. Goodale said, essentially, that he could not trust the Conservative Party to vote in favour of corporate tax cuts:

Would you trust them after what they did in the spring?  For heaven’s sake, give your head a shake.  There’s nothing to be trusted in that gaggle of silly people.”

Conservative Finance Critic Monte Solberg, one of the “silly people” sitting opposite to Goodale,  had this to say:

“In the spring, when the government was trying to take corporate tax cuts out of its own budget bill, we fought to keep them in. We are there to keep corporate tax cuts in because it means jobs for large employers. We want to see jobs created. Ralph Goodale says he supports productivity. Well, because of our productivity, how can he delay tax relief for large employers in one hand and say he is committed to productivity on the other hand? It is ridiculous. “

Goodale, in the QP scrum as well as in a statement issued later today said his government would not be proceed with the issue of bank mergers and blamed that, too, on opposition parties:

“Earlier this summer, I wrote to the finance critics in the three opposition parties, asking whether we can proceed in a serious fashion to deal with the issue of large-scale bank mergers. After reviewing the responses, I do not believe it would be appropriate to bring forward guidelines on such an important issue in this environment, where it runs the risk of being politicized, “ Goodale said in a statement.

 

CTV is kicking some ratings butt

And now for something very un-Canadian — a little bragging.

Shows on CTV — including our dinner-hour news shows and the National News — have dominated the competition recently.

Here’s a press release from the CTV brass:

CTV Ratings Advisory – Sept. 26, 2005

 Last night, CTV’s powerhouse Sunday night line-up debuted to take every primetime spot on Canadian television:

  1. At 9 p.m., the ladies of Wisteria Lane returned with 2.8 million viewers as Desperate Housewives became the most-watched program of the night, topping Family Guy and American Dad (Global, 763,000 viewers) by 261 per cent.
  2. Break-out mid-season hit Grey’s Anatomy returned at 10 p.m. with 1.8 million viewers to place second, its biggest audience ever. Grey’s Anatomy bested Crossing Jordan (Global, 793,000) by 122 per cent.
  3. Earlier in the evening, the new season of Cold Case debuted in third place, winning the 8 p.m. timeslot with 1.7 million viewers against The Simpsons (Global, 1.4 million) despite being out of simulcast in Toronto.
  4. In fourth place, Law and Order returned for its 16th season at 7 p.m. with 1.6 million viewers.

On Saturday night, a one-hour documentary about the Corner Gas phenomenon delivered 745,000 viewers, according to Nielsen Media Research: 

  1. Head to head against CFL Football (CBC, 436,000), viewers chose Beyond Corner Gas: Tales from Dog River (578,000) on CTV.

Two more premieres on Friday night also performed well on CTV. 

  1. At 8 p.m., Ghost Whisperer attracted 1.4 million viewers, crushing Malcolm in the Middle (Global, 381,000) by a whopping 271 per cent and becoming the second most-watched show of the night after the CTV Evening News (1.5 million). Ghost Whisperer also won its timeslot in Toronto and Vancouver.
  2. The 90-minute, third season premiere of Nip/Tuck won the 9 p.m. timeslot with just over one million viewers, up 66 per cent over Threshold (Global).
  3. Earlier in the evening at 7 p.m., CTV’s eTalk Daily (477,000) once again bested ET Canada (Global, 436,000).
  4. CTV had the Top Four programs of the night: 1. CTV Evening News, 2. Ghost Whisperer, 3. Nip/Tuck and 4. CTV National News.

All figures, unless otherwise cited, are courtesy BBM and represent a nation-wide picture of television viewing in Canada. All times stated are Eastern Standard Time.

 

 

Michael Gauvreau

…[Massolin argues that Toryism] exalted the British connection not simply as a political link but as a set of moral virtues that exalted English Canada above the United States, and enabled Canada to develop as an autonomous community in North America. Finally, argues the author, Canadian Tories were eclectic and selective in borrowing conservative ideas.”

Michael Gauvreau, “Review of Canadian Intellectuals, the Tory Tradition, and the Challenge of Modernity, 1939–1970” in History of Intellectural Culture, 2005, Vol. 5, No. 1.

Fun with math — phone numbers

Got the first one as it made its way around the Internet via e-mail. It ended up in the hands of Robin Ollerhead, a friend of our family's and Professor Emeritus in the physics department at the University of Guelph. He took the first trick and made one of his own. They're both reproduced here:
Here's the original:
1 GRAB A CALCULATOR. (YOU WON'T BE ABLE TO DO THIS ONE IN YOUR HEAD).
2 KEY IN THE FIRST THREE DIGITS OF YOUR PHONE NUMBER (NOT THE AREA CODE).
3 MULTIPLY BY 80.
4 ADD 1.
5 MULTIPLY BY 250.
6 ADD THE LAST 4 DIGITS OF YOUR PHONE NUMBER.
7 ADD THE LAST 4 DIGITS OF YOUR PHONE NUMBER AGAIN!
8 SUBTRACT 250.
9 DIVIDE NUMBER BY 2.
DO YOU RECOGNIZE THE ANSWER?
Here's Robin's:
1. Grab a calculator.
2. Key in the first three digits of your telephone number (not the area code).
3. Multiply by 400.
4. Add 2.
5. Multiply by 75.
6. Take the last 4 digits of your telephone number, multiply by 2, and add to your previous answer.
7. Take the last 4 digits of your telephone number, subtract 150, and add to your previous answer.
8. Divide this rather large number by 3.
What have you got?