As we approach Budget Week — the first key confidence motion checkpoint — it’s interesting and not a bit confusing to see some well-respected polling firms getting different responses from voters. In all cases, the Conservatives are leading or tied for the lead but in no case are they at majority territory. The Libs are doing very poorly according to one poll but doing as well as the Conservatives in two others.
Here’s a summary:
- CONS-LIBS TIED The latest to be released is from Nanos Research. This poll of 878 people was taken Feb. 16–20 by telephone which the pollster says is accurate to within 3.3 per cent, 19 times out of 20 (Pct change since last Nanos poll on Feb 4 2008):
- Liberal Party 34% (+1)
- Conservative Party 34% (+3)
- NDP 14% (-5)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (NC)
- CONS SURGE The most recent result from The Strategic Counsel (PDF), the polling firm used by CTV News and The Globe and Mail. This poll of 1,000 was taken Feb. 14th and 17th by telephone and the pollster says the results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 (Pct change since last SC poll on Jan 13 2008):
- Conservative Party 39% (+3)
- Liberal Party 27% (-3)
- NDP 12% (-2)
- BQ 10% (-1)
- Green Party 12% (-2)
- CONS-LIBS TIED A Harris-Decima poll prepared for The Canadian Press. This poll of 1,000 Canadians was conducted by phone Feb. 14–17 and the pollster says its results are accurate to within 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
- Conservative Party 35%
- Liberal Party 33%
- NDP 13%
- Green Party 9%
- BQ 8%