Pollster Nik Nanos is out with his latest look at voter intentions — headline: Grits and Tories tied — but one of the interesting things he says is that some soft NDP voters may have moved over to the Liberals because of the Lukiwski comments.
Conservative MP Tom Lukiwski was caught on tape 17 years ago making a vicious anti-gay remark — a remark he immediately apologized for as soon as the tape came to light. Nanos says his poll was in the field as this came to light. In the poll, NDP support has dropped by five points. In Ontario, support for the Liberals climbed and NDP support dropped.
“It's quite possible that some soft Ontario New Democrats have strategically parked with the Liberals to block the Tories,” Nanos said.
Here's the big picture numbers:
- Conservatives: 36 per cent (up 5 points since the last poll in Feb. 2008)
- Liberals: 36 per cent (up 3)
- NDP: 14 per cent (down 5)
- Bloc Québecois: 8 per cent (down 2)
- Green Party: 6 per cent (down 2)
Nanos surveyed 827 Canadians by telephone between April 4 and 9. The pollster says the results are accurate for the national sample to within 3.4 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
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I suspect that Nik's polling is accurate and some people are negatively reacting to the Lukiwski comments. However there are a lot of fair minded people who appreciate that a sincere apology was given, the comments were made 17 years ago at a party get together with lots of booze going around. No excuse but some context I think.
If in fact people did move their support over this issue then we certainly are a less than serious people. Parties should be supported based on the totality of their positions on policy and the direction in which the country is being managed. Reacting to day to day issues alone should not be an excuse for changing your vote. There is more to a party than one MP no matter what statements he or she makes.
I think the NDP are switching to the Liberals because they see the Libs are being the only party that can defeat the Conservative government. It remains to be seen if they will stick with the Libs over the long term. I do mean long term. I don't suspect we will see an election until next year unless Dion has a death wish.