It’s election day — e-day – at the Vatican! The 115 cardinal-electors will enter the Conclave in the Sistine Chapel at 4:30 pm Rome time/1130 am Toronto time where — if they choose to — they will hold their first round of voting for pope. I say, “if they choose to” because they do have the option of putting off the first vote until Wednesday morning. Some here think it’s a possibility though an unlikely one.
Assuming there is a vote — and there will be only one round balloting today — the smoke signals announcing the result will likely waft to the heavens at about 8 pm Rome time/3 pm Eastern. Now, that’s the expectation for the timing of the first smoke signal but there is no hard-and-fast schedule. I will be on “smoke watch” here in Rome from about 5:30 pm (Rome time) onwards.
On Monday, Vatican officials cautioned journalists not to expect a winner on the first ballot. Indeed, the race is still widely seen among clergy and Vatican insiders as wide-ope with no clear favourite to emerge. That’s different from 2005 when Ratzinger was the clear favourite going into the conclave and came out as pope. (Thus being the exception to the maxim often heard here: He who goes into the conclave a pope comes out a cardinal.)
One of the most widely read and best-connected Vatican journalists is Andrea Tornielli of the Vatican Insider. He had this intriguing paragraph in a file this week:
Already as of [Tuesday] evening, when the 115 voters will shut themselves in the Sistine Chapel for the election, a fair number of votes (some mentioned 35, others 40) should go to the Archbishop of Milan, Angelo Scola, who has the support of various European cardinals and a few Americans. If he is elected, the papacy will become Italian again, thirty-five years after the election of John Paul I. Another candidate who should gather a fair amount of consensus is the Archbishop of São Paulo, Odilo Pedro Scherer, a Brazilian with a long experience in the Curia. Unconfirmed reports on the eve of the Conclave – which of course need to be taken with a pinch of salt – suggest the Brazilian could get 25 votes. A third candidate who might stand out from the beginning is the Canadian Marc Ouellet, Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops who is believed to be able to draw to himself twelve votes from South America and the United States.
[Read the rest at: Conclave: Scola, Scherer and Oullet are front-runners but the race is still open – Vatican Insider.]
What about Cardinal Sandri from Argentina? He’s of Italian origin, so his election would please those who want to return the papacy to an Italian, even if once removed, but born in Argentina, so Latin America would get its first Pope.
Not that I’m an expert on these matters … I learned of Cardinal Sandri from one of your competitors (initials PM), who wondered on-air what his organization’s hotel budget is.
Just curious … how much does a glass of orange juice go for in a Rome hotel?
“The Papal conclave should be very interesting. It looks like the top two candidates are Scola (Italy) and Scherer (Brazil). The reform faction of Cardinals is looking for Scola to lead them while the Curia faction of Cardinals wants Scherer to be Pope.
Look for the first few days of the conclave to be a battle between the top two guys. Scola has a solid bloc of votes in Europe. But it also appears that some American and Asian Cardinals are supporting Scola. If this is true we could have white smoke by the end of the second day. Scherer has solid support from the Curia wing of Cardinals. Scherer supporters are looking to get strong support during the first few votes, in hopes that other Cardinals will jump on the band wagon at the close of the second day of voting.
Cardinal Ouellet (Canada) and Erdo (Hungary) are said to be the compromise candidates to become Pope. If things aren’t settled beteween Scola and Scherer after the third day of the conclave, then look for Ouellet or Erdo to emerge as strong contenders from the fourth day on.
My gut tells me that Scola has enough votes to become Pope, and this should happen by the end of the second day or start of the third day of voting. But if things drag out longer, we will certainly see a compromise Pope like Ouellet or Erdo emerge.”