István Deák on Orban: Free speech under threat in the Magyar Republic?

Historian István Deák casts a gimlet eye on the relatively new political administration in Hungary, the land of his birth, in a recent essay in The New York Review. I was struck by the threat Prime Minister's Viktor Orban's government is posing to a free press and to free speech rights:

Now attention is here [in Hungary] again, although only temporarily and mainly in  Europe, and it has much to do with Hungary’s assumption of the presidency of the Council of the European Union against a backdrop of  recently enacted domestic policies that are said to violate the  principles and practices of the European Union. Among other things, Hungary’s right-wing government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has set up a National Media and Communications Authority consisting of five members of Orbán’s party, Fidesz, with the authority to fine journalists and media organizations up to $1 million for “immoral reporting.”

Public criticism of the Orbán government took an astonishing turn during the introduction in Strasbourg, on January 19, 2011, of Viktor Orbán as president of the European Union’s second legislative body, the European Parliament…some deputies sat with Band-Aids covering their mouths in protest against the new Hungarian media law. Others held up blank issues of  potentially censored Hungarian dailies. The leaders of the liberal and socialist groups of deputies declared Orbán unworthy of the presidency, and the leader of the Greens, the former student anarchist Daniel Cohn-Bendit, shouted that Orbán was turning Hungary into a “Communist
surveillance dictatorship.”

One of the more serious international attempts to publicly denounce Orbán’s politics in Hungary has been an “Appeal to the European Institutions” by European intellectuals and leaders, dated January 7, 2011, in which the authors deplore the development of “a full-fledged illiberal democracy” and the dismantling of “democracy’s checks and balances” in Hungary. They demand that the European governments and parties “build clear standards of compliance with the values of democracy” and that violators of these standards be punished.

For the last few months, the government and its absolute parliamentary majority have been feverishly active, already bringing about substantial changes in politics and society. The most famous and most controversial of the innovations is the already mentioned media law giving extensive powers to the five Fidesz members who run the media authority. Appointed for nine years, they can impose a heavy fine on journalists and media outlets for reporting considered “immoral” or “unbalanced.”

Still, at the moment the media remain entirely free, and in view of the publication of the far right’s hysterical calls for violence against the Roma and the Jewish population, one might even argue that some of the media in Hungary are a little too free. Also, on February 16, 2011, the Hungarian government agreed to amend the media law to comply with changes proposed by the European Commission. The right-of-center coalition in the European Parliament has declared its satisfaction with the technical changes in the law but, in a recent development, the European Parliament as a whole called for more changes. The problem is less with the law than with the chilling effect that the rumor of censorship has had on some journalists and writers, and with the haste of some publishers and other media bosses to exercise self-censorship in order to please the new leaders of Hungary.

No less serious is the government’s systematic weakening of the powers of the Constitutional Court, the National Elections Commission, the National Bank, and the independent Fiscal Council while also putting party loyalists in the top position of each body. The government has already expressed its right to control the Hungarian Telegraph Agency, government-owned television and radio, some state-owned theaters and museums, and a few research institutions. The government, moreover, has the newly enacted right to dismiss public servants without cause.

The great variety of people that are the new NDP MPs

The Library of Parliament is busy putting together its pages for each new MP. Those pages include the occupation of the MP prior to being elected. The Library only has listed occupations for only about half of the new NDP MPs. Many of those MPs may list multiple occupations prior to their election. I went through those today and was struck, as you may be, of the great variety of professional backgrounds of the new members of that caucus. Here is the list of occupations for about 40 of the new NDP MPs. I'll update as the Library of Parliament catches up.

Activist, Activist, Actor, Agronomist, artistic diredtor, Assistant manager, Author, Coach, college instructor, Columnist, Communications adviser, Community activist, community activist, community activist, community activist, community development advisor, Community-development worker, Composer, Computer analyst, Consultant, Consultant, Correctional services officer, Criminologist, Director, Economist, Economist, Editor, educator, Employment consultant, engineer, environmentalist, Environmentalist, environmentalist, Environmentalist, Foreign-service officer, french teacher, gardener, guidance counsellor, horticulturist, industrial relations officer, information technology technician, Interpretive guide – museum, interpretive guide – museum, journalist, journalist, journalist, journalist, Journalist, labour relations officer, Labour representative, labour representative, Lawyer, Musician, musician, musician, policy analyst, printer, professor – community college, professor of political science, professor of sociology, Program coordinator, project manager, public relations officer, public servant, public servant, Public servant, radio host, research assistant, researcher, sales agent, security officer, security officer, singer, student, student, Student, student, Tax lawyer, teacher, Teacher, teacher, Teacher, teacher, translator, union officer, union organiser, volunteer worker, volunteer worker, writer, writer

Annals of re-branding, part 3: It's back to "Government of Canada" for the the very first funding announcement

For those keeping score, Stephen Harper's Conservatives have used a few different variations over the last five years when describing the activities of their government in official government press releases. There was the original, back in 2006 and stretching through to 2008, of “Canada's New Government is pleased to announce …” . Then, as early as May, 2010, we started seeing the “Harper Government pleased to announce…” template.

Today, we had our first “pleased to announce” kind of press release from the new majority Conservative government. And, one week in, at least, they've gone back to the plain vanilla “Government of Canada is pleased to announce …”

This is the first funding announcement so far as I can see coming from the government of the 41st Parliament and — this may come as a shock — it's money for an event in Saguenay, QC, which, after being part of the riding held by Conservative Jean-Pierre Blackburn for the last two Parliaments, is now the fiefdom of one of our new Quebec NDP MPs, Claude Patry.

So Patry wins whatever award there is for being the first MP of the 41st Parliament to bring home some of that Ottawa bacon! Well done, M. Patry!

What M. Patry won for his riding is $39,063 from Denis Lebel, the Minister of State for the regional development agency for Quebec, that will be used to help stage the Coupe des Nations Ville de Saguenay, a cycling event that will tourist dollars and other economic benefits to the Saguenay-Lac St. Jean region. (Lebel just happens to represent the riding to Patry's west but I don't want anyone to think I'm suggesting anything!)

And this seems like a good a point as any to invite you to follow along my reporting of each and every spending announcement this government will make between now and 2015 through my #OttawaSpends project on Twitter. The Harper government, during its last minority run from 2008 to 2011 made nearly 6,000 spending announcements and I tried to tweet out most of them and provide periodic updates at this blog. You can check in on the OttawaSpends project by visiting http://www.twitter.com/ottawaspends or, if you're a Twitter maniac, simply follow @ottawaspends. And if you are following me @ottawaspends be sure to read this explainer for the syntax and rationale for the project. As always, keen to hear your feedback and suggestions for this project.

 

NYT: Pakistani Army, Shaken by Raid, Faces New Scrutiny

Jane Perlez reports from Islamabad, Pakistan:

In some Pakistani quarters, the failure of the army and intelligence agencies to detect Bin Laden, or to do anything about him if indeed his presence was known, prompted calls for an overhaul of the nation’s strategic policies.

“Instead of making more India-specific nuclear-capable missiles, the funds and the energy should be directed to eliminating the terrorists,” said an editorial in the newspaper Pakistan Today.

The editor, Arif Nizami, said the American raid made a mockery of the Pakistani military’s bravura that its fighter jets could shoot down American drones. “You talk of taking out drones, and you can’t even take out helicopters,” Mr. Nizami said.

Some Pakistanis said they were more concerned about the fact that known terrorists were living in their midst than the violation of sovereignty by the Americans.

“The terrorists’ being on our soil is the biggest violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty,” said Athar Minallah, a prominent lawyer. “If Osama bin Laden lives in Abbottabad, there could be a terrorist in my neighborhood.”

The Internet could break. No, really, it could break.

Now, it's unlikely that it will break. Indeed, researchers publishing under the imprimatur of the The European Network and Information Security Agency (ENISA) say as much in the opening of their report from last month on the “Resilience of the Internet Interconnection Ecosystem” [5.8 mb PDF]. (You do know that the Internet is not, in fact, one network but is, instead, the ultimate network of networks. I continue to argue with copy editors that the Internet, for that reason, should always be capitalized for the term describes only one thing and one specific thing — much like the third planet from the Sun which is always called Earth … but I digress). Hurricane Katrina, terrorist attacks, Mafiaboy — you name it — nothing has been able to bring the Internet to its knees … at least so far [pdf]

…it does appear likely that the Internet could suffer systemic failure, leading perhaps to local failures and system‐wide congestion, in some circumstances including:

  • A regional failure of the physical infrastructure on which it depends (such as the bulk power transmission system) or the human infrastructure needed to maintain it (for example if pandemic flu causes millions of people to stay at home out of fear of infection).
  • Cascading technical failures, of which some of the more likely near‐term scenarios relate to the imminent changeover from IPv4 to IPv6; common‐mode failures involving updates to popular makes of router (or PC) may also fall under this heading.
  • A coordinated attack in which a capable opponent disrupts the BGP fabric by broadcasting thousands of bogus routes, either via a large AS or from a large number of compromised routers.

There is evidence that implementations of the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) are surprisingly fragile. There is evidence that some concentrations of infrastructure are vulnerable and significant disruption can be caused by localised failure. There is evidence that the health of the interconnection system as a whole is not high among the concerns of the networks that make up that system – by and large each network strives to provide a service which is reliable, most of the time, at minimum achievable cost. The economics do not favour high dependability as there is no incentive for anyone to provide the extra capacity that would be needed to deal with large‐scale failures.

Liberal Party President Alfred Apps: Time for "rebuilding and renewal"

Liberal Party President Alfred Apps issued the following statement this evening:

On behalf of Liberals everywhere, I first want to thank and congratulate our leader, Michael Ignatieff, for waging a spirited national campaign. Mr. Ignatieff won the affection of all those who rallied to his side. He has earned the admiration and respect of all Canadians.

This is a profoundly difficult moment for our party.

Monday’s defeat was a deeply personal experience – for each of our hard-working candidates, for our tireless volunteers and for our many longtime and loyal supporters. Despite the outcome, Liberals everywhere can be proud of the battle that we waged together, as well as the tremendous team and the positive platform we offered to Canadians. Throughout this campaign, we have stood fast for democratic principle and for the kind of Canada that all Liberals believe in – progressive, compassionate, responsible – a Canada of hope for all Canadians.

But there is no avoiding the fact that we now face an historically unprecedented challenge. Our future as a party will depend, more than ever, on preserving our unity, broadening our vision and keeping clear and cool heads over the coming weeks and months about what we need to do.

As we reflect soberly and respectfully over the coming days on the democratic judgment of Canadians, we need to recognize that our party’s remarkable contribution to Canadian history was never a guarantee of its future health and success. We can only earn back the confidence of Canadians by rediscovering our confidence in ourselves and in the continuing relevance of our values.

It will take some time and it will not be easy.

In the wake of our defeat, we Liberals will have to reach out more broadly than we have in half a century to find a new generation of activists – to Canadians who love their country and are ready and able to fight for a new agenda of reform, to Canadians who care about equality of opportunity and are prepared to make serious personal sacrifices for the good of their fellow citizens, to Canadians who want to make a difference and are willing to demonstrate the courage of their convictions against all odds and come what may. We need to build a party that is a beacon for the Canada of tomorrow, rather than an echo of bygone glories – a party whose diversity truly reflects the Canada we are becoming.

Rather than wringing hands or assigning blame, we need to move forward to a reasonable period of constructive stability and collective reflection. My hope is that all Liberals will stand back, take the long view of our challenges and prepare themselves for the work ahead. While we all have to accept and learn from defeat, it does not mean that Liberalism is dead in Canada or that liberal values are suddenly misguided, or out of place or out of date.  Far from it.

Our commitment as Liberals remains to a resolutely centrist political party, to a program that blends and balances fiscal responsibility with social compassion, to a philosophy that understands the potential of a mixed market economy but believes in the power of government to achieve good, not only for individuals but also for the nation as a whole. We have always been a proudly pragmatic party, united around a broad and moderate consensus and a vision of Canada as more than the sum of its parts. We must not now surrender to tired ideologies, whether of the right or the left, in search of what can work in the real world to make the lives of Canadians better.

When Canadians are ready again for that kind of leadership – and they will be – we have to be ready to lead.

When a new Canadian consensus begins to emerge – as it will – Liberals need to be there to help shape it.

This is not the time for making rash judgments or drawing speedy conclusions. This is not the time for Liberals to be seduced by political expediency or parliamentary convenience.

This is a time for wide open debate, for moving forward together, for the broadest possible participation from Liberals in the major decisions that lie ahead. And all of us who occupy party offices across the land at every level of our organization need to steel our resolve and renew our commitment!

This is also the time for all Liberals to practice in our own home what we always preach to others – respect. As we move to rebuild, we must genuinely respect the honestly held viewpoints of each party member, including all in our deliberations. We must respect the bedrock principles of democratic process and ensure open debate on all major questions affecting our party’s future. Above all, we must ensure that the only agenda on the table is one that puts the Liberal Party first in the service of Canada and Canadians.

We can undertake the reform and rebuilding our party in a way that puts respect for people, for democracy and for our party first. If we do, I am confident that the legendary resilience and resourcefulness of ordinary Liberals will soon carry us all through to a brighter day for our party and for our country. The sheer enormity of the challenge ought to serve as an inspiration to us all.

Rebuilding and renewal starts with every Liberal but this is no time for the faint-hearted. We need Liberals with the energy and commitment who are ready to dust themselves off and get the job done. Please let us know how you want to help.

Is the ADQ's rise and fall in Quebec a lesson for the federal NDP? No

There has been much commentary in the wake of Monday's election debating the permanence of the NDP's leap into Official Opposition status. I believe the NDP rise is a permanent one.

But there are many who believe that the NDP's new significance on the federal scene will be a flash in the pan and that a new Liberal leader could reasonably expect to lead his or her party back to Official Opposition status in the 2015 federal election. One of the arguments common to this way of thinking is a comparison to the experience of the Action démocratique du Canada in Quebec over the 2007 and 2008 provincial elections.

Going into the 2007 provincial election in Quebec, the ADQ had 4 MNAs but ended up winning 41 seats and supplanting the Parti Quebecois as the official opposition against Jean Charest's minority government. In 2008, Charest triumphed and the ADQ was reduced to just 7 seats and lost official party status.

There are some fundamental differences between the ADQ experience and the federal experience that, I think, disqualifies comparisons of the two parties.

  • Jack Layton is not Mario Dumont. Layton has much more experience than Dumont did and, while I do not know the quality of the staff that advised Dumont through this period, Layton certainly has experienced, credible and street-smart advisors playing a senior role in his office and at the party.
  • The NDP has seen its popular support and seat counts grow in every federal election since Layton assumed leadership of the party in 2003. It has done better in 2004, 2006, 2008 and, of course, in 2011. This was a result of a deliberate multi-election strategy that paid significant dividends. There is no evidence to show that any of its political opponents has, in all those elections, figured out a way to put a dent in this slow but steady advance. The ADQ 2007 results appear to be a definite flash-in-the-pan that caught that surprised that party and its leader.
  • The ADQ entered the 2007 campaign with just 4 MNAs with any legislative experience. The NDP caucus for this Parliament has 35 members who were MPs in the 40th Parliament or previous Parliaments. That's two new MPs for every experienced MP. The ADQ had nearly 10 inexperienced MNA for every experienced one.
  • Charest “pounced” on his inexperienced opposition by calling a snap election in 2008, just 21 months after the ADQ  had been Official Opposition. If Harper is true to his word on fixed elections, the NDP opposition will have four years to convince Canadians that is, in fact, the “government-in-waiting”. That time, to gain experience and for new MPs to learn on the job, will be invaluable and make it much more difficult for the Liberals to “spring back.”

In his own words: Layton's "winds of change" speech

A new poll came out Tuesday from Angus Reid that shows NDP support nationally at 30 per cent, behind the Conservatives at 35 per cent and well ahead of the Liberals at 22 per cent. And here are some excerpts from NDP Leader Jack Layton's speech this morning in Winnipeg:

Can you feel the winds of change blowing here in Manitoba?

Well you are not alone. Spring is here.  And I am feeling the winds of change all across this great country of ours.

They’re blowing in from BC, from Alberta and Saskatchewan, through Manitoba and Ontario. From Newfoundland and Labrador.  New Brunswick.  And Nova Scotia. From the great North of our country.

And my friends the winds of change are blowing strongly in Quebec.

Now, the old parties are spending the last week on the attack. Hoping to drown out the voices for change in Canada. Well, in the final days of this campaign, New Democrats will launch a few attacks of our own.

My friends, I will attack health care wait times. I will attack doctor shortages. I will attack seniors’ poverty ….

The Layton tour will finish the day in Edmonton where it not only hopes to defend the one seat it holds in Edmonton-Srathcona is hopeful of winning two others in that city.

 

Tory ridings lead in advance poll turnout

Glen McGregor does all political junkies a favour by crunching the numbers on the advance poll turnout. The turnout was way up over 2008 and Glen ranks all 308 ridings based on the difference in advance poll turnout in 2008 compared to 2011.

I sliced Glen's chart a little differently and attached a party affiliation based on which party held the riding at dissolution and then sorted the same list based simply on the number of ballots cast at advance polls in 2011.

Here's the top 20 ridings in the country based on that sort.

Top 20

Just as in 2008, ridings held by the Conservatives appear to rank much higher on this list. That's incumbent Conservative Pierre Poilievre in the top spot.

The Conservatives, by most observers' reckoning, have the best ground game of the major parties, followed by the NDP. A well-organized ground game means you get your supporters to the ballot box at the earliest opportunity. The Conservatives have done that before and appear to be doing that again. Eleven of the 20 highest turnouts are Tory ridings.

I find it notable that Simcoe-Grey, where independent Helena Guergis is trying to hold on has a very high turnout. Her Conservative opponent Kellie Leitch is a long-time Ontario and federal party activist and worker and, presumably, she has inherited a strong GOTV (get out the vote) organization. Or, interestingly enough, did Guergis hold on to some of that  GOTV swagger she used to enjoy?

I note also that Bramalea-Gore-Malton has a very high turnout — one of of only three ridings were a Liberal is an incumbent to show up on this top 20. In this riding, Liberal Gurbax Malhi is trying to fight off a fierce assault by the Tories. Does a high advance poll turnout here suggest the Tories are aggressively working the riding and have already locked in a pile of votes?

One could ask the same question about Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, a riding held by Liberal Keith Martin, but, with his retirement, it's very much up in the air. Same thing in Kingston and the Islands, which the Conservatives are eyeing with the retirement of Peter Milliken.

The only other Liberal-held riding to place in this list is Ottawa South where David McGuinty, one thinks, should hold.

I chalk up Ottawa South's presence on this list to an overall trend that a lot of ridings on the Ontario side in the national capital region are on this list. In fact, four Ottawa ridings are on this top 20 list. Perhaps government workers, journos in Ottawa, etc. are heavy advance poll users because of their jobs?

J-School prof (and former top Hill journo) Christopher Waddell makes an interesting point: If the Liberals, Conservatives, and BQ were able to lock in a pile of votes in advance polls, they shield themselves considerably from this late-campaign surge by the New Democrats. One might infer from these charts, that the Conservatives may have done that — but did the Liberals innoculate themselves against the NDP in time?

Meanwhile, here's the bottom 20 ridings for advance poll ballots:

Bottom 20

On this list, we find the countries most northern and some of its most remote ridings. These ridings have small electorates and, it seems to me, this is not surprising where they show on this.

But I am surprised to find that in York West, where Liberal incumbent Judy Sgro seeks re-election, just 2,410 people voted in an advance poll. (And that, as Glen pointed out, was a 33 per cent improvement on 2008!) Similarly, in the populous riding of Calgary East, where Conservative Deepak Obhrai is the incumbent, there just over 2,719 advance ballots.

The very scared Bloc Quebecois

In the last desperate weeks of the 2006 campaign and in the last desperate week of the current campaign the Liberal Party of Canada has reached for a favourite — and often effective — bogeyman: Charges that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives secretly harbour an anti-abortion agenda.

The Bloc Quebecois have never, in a federal election, been in the desperate straits that the Liberals are in now and were in in 2006. But they have reacted in a similar fashion, reaching for a favourite — and often effective scare tactic: Falling back to the tribal “divide-and-conquer” politics in which the Bloc frames the election as “a struggle” between Canada or Quebec.

The aide who writes Gilles Duceppe's tweets has said earlier on Twitter that even though Duceppe himself may not actually write and post the tweets, he has signed off on all that go out under his name. With Jack Layton and the NDP now more popular than Duceppe and the BQ, this is what went out on Twitter this morning under Duceppe's name:

@GillesDuceppe: élection n’est pas lutte gauche-droite mais lutte entre fédéralistes-souverainistes, entre le Canada et le Québec

Minutes later, after many on Twitter reacted in disgust to the suggestion, the “struggle”  tweet was deleted and replaced with:

Duceppe1

And than tweeted out this kicker:

Duceppe2

Which prompted Maclean's national editor Andrew Coyne to tweet:

Coyne

and:

Coyne2

Meanwhile, just as the Liberals have called in Jean Chretien to help Michael Ignatieff out on the campaign trail in the upcoming week, the BQ have Jacques Parizeau set to give a speech to the BQ faithful tomorrow in St. Lambert.

For the Bloc, this is all about the threat from — in Duceppe's phrase – “The NDP of Canada!” (cue bogeyman music here):

DuceppeNPD