We are likely to see provincial elections in 2014 in Ontario and Quebec but we will certainly see one in New Brunswick. Votes will happen in Ontario and Quebec, of course, only if the minority governments that lead those two provinces cannot get their budgets through the legislature. But New Brunswick Premier David Alward faces a “hard count”, a fixed election date on September 22.
Alward’s prospects for re-election, nine months ahead of the formal campaign, are bleak. To begin with, the only pollster who is regularly active in Atlantic Canada, Don Mills’ Corporate Research Associates, has found Alward’s Progressive Conservatives losing support to Brian Gallant’s Liberals all year. The latest from CRA finds Alward’s PCs with the support of just 25% compared to 47% for Gallant’s Liberals. A year ago the NB PCs and NB Liberals were tied with 38% support.
(ALAIN LAVOIE/L’ÉCHO DE LA BAIE/AGENCE QMI)
Then there is the condition of the provincial finances. The Auditor General of New Brunswick flat out told the government it must do two things to correct an unsustainable fiscal situation:
https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/408967194023034880
But here’s the thing. Taxes are already going up for New Brunswickers, as the Canadian Taxpayers Federation noted this morning:
New Brunswick is in a class all its own – the province hiked its income tax rates, with increases ranging from 3 per cent for its lowest bracket all the way to 14 per cent for taxable incomes between $78,609 and $127,802. A two-income family of four in New Brunswick pulling in a combined $100,000 will see their total tax bill rise $448.
Thomas said New Brunswick will be a test case for politicians who preach tax hikes as a tool for addressing income inequality and poverty.
“We’re going to go out on a limb and predict that New Brunswick’s economy is going to suffer and New Brunswickers are going to suffer in 2014 when this tax grab goes into effect,” said [CTF federal director Gregory] Thomas.
Alward’s government knows times are tough politically and financially. Indeed, all Blaine Higgs, Alward’s finance minister, could say when he released the province’s most recent fiscal update in early December, was that a bad situation would have been a lot worse if the PCs had not been in charge. “If we were not managing smarter, this revenue shortfall would have had a much bigger impact on our province’s finances,” Higgs said.
So more money must be found while some spending is cut.
Nasty medicine will likely be needed and so, to avoid seeming as if they are the ones prescribing it, the PCs will try to make it sound like they are consulting all “stakeholders” with the hope of pointing to someone who is a Liberal or a New Democrat who might give them some political cover when, in the end, an unpopular fiscal measure must be announced. Higgs again: “There is a pressing need to gather our stakeholders around the table and discuss what revenue and spending measures need to be adopted in order to address our deficit situation. No one is immune to the fiscal situation we are facing in this province and we are asking stakeholders to be prepared to discuss how we can get back to balanced budgets.”
There is also a Web site, Taxpayers First, with sections like “Where the Money Comes From” and “Where the Money Goes” which Higgs no doubt hopes will help voters understand why, at some point in the spring, he will have no choice to do what must be done.