There have been a host of polls out recently that have examined shifting voter preferences in light of the recent election of Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. While specific numbers have varied from poll to poll, a common theme to emerge is that Trudeau’s arrival on the scene is very bad for the NDP and that the Conservatives will laugh their way to a majority with this split on the left.
Really?
The way I read it from one recent poll, if an election were held today, Harper would lead minority government with a strengthened NDP Official Opposition and a slightly strengthened third party led by Trudeau. I come to that conclusion using numbers from Election Canada in the second column below and then doing my own calcluations for the third column below using some data provided by a recent Ekos against Elections Canada numbers. Continue reading Fluid voter loyalty: Who benefits? The NDP!