A review of the polls in BC: Dix leads in all but the gap varies

A running tally of the polls published in the B.C. election campaign (the writ dropped on April 16), arranged here, with the most recent on top. In every poll, Adrian Dix and the NDP lead with Christy Clark and the Liberals in second. The biggest gap of 22 points between the two was found by Justason in a poll published April 29. The smallest gap was 2 points in poll published May 9 by Forum.

Continue reading A review of the polls in BC: Dix leads in all but the gap varies

The polls are worse than they look for Christy Clark and the BC Liberals.

In the 1996 provincial election in British Columbia, the BC Liberals won the popular vote, with 41.82% of all votes cast going to the party that was then led by Gordon Campbell. The BC NDP, under incumbent Premier Glen Clark, finished on election night with 39.45% of the popular vote, a drop of about about one percentage point from the previous general election.

And yet, though Clark lost the popular vote to Campbell, Clark won a majority of seats in the BC legislature. Clark’s caucus had 39 MLAs, Campbell’s had 33. There were three in the “other” category.

How does one explain that? Continue reading The polls are worse than they look for Christy Clark and the BC Liberals.