Three amateur pundits — and I use amateur in its best sense (think Olympian) — have applied common sense with a little bit of their own gut instinct to come up with some predictions of first-ballot voting results when the Liberals gather in Montreal in December. Each prediction would be remarkable on its own but what I find fascinating is that Calgary Grit (he’s for Kennedy) and Jason Cherniak (he’s for Dion) and Gregory Morrow arrived at an identical order of finish and nearly identical percentages of the ballot.
All have Hedy Fry finishing last and each man’s top four are Ignatieff, Kennedy, Rae, and Dion. Both have Ignatieff winning about 25 per cent on the first ballot. Click over to each post for the full ranking, numbers, methodology and, of course, commentary.