If an election were held today — the result might be just about the same as it was on January 24. But, as pollster Nik Nanos notes, the Conservatives might not have 10 MPs from Quebec. Maybe they’d pick up one or two more each in Atlantic Canada, in Ontario, and in Manitoba and B.C.?
The key to a Conservative majorty, everyone says, is more seats in Quebec. So how’s that going? Well, according to the latest poll from Nanos’ company SES Research, Conservative support has dropped nine points in la belle province since his firm was last in the field three months ago. (35 per cent on May 9 vs 26 per cent at August 23).
The leaderless Liberals actually gained in Quebec compared to May and are up to 22 per cent. The BQ had the biggest bounceback, jumping up five points to 42 per cent. “The softening of support in Quebec this quarter should be worrisome for the Tories,” Nanos writes.
The big story in Ontario: The Conservatives are spinning their wheels (36 per cent three months ago – 37 per cent now) but the Liberals — remember: They have no leader — have jumped eight points (34 per cent then to 42 per cent now). The NDP — remember: they have a leader -has slipped in Ontario (24 then, 18 now) and nationally (18 now, 19 then).
Important note: Because of a smaller sample size at the regional level there is a larger margin of error.
The latest national numbers from SES are:
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Conservatives 36% (-2)
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Liberals 30% (+2)
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NDP 18% (-1)
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Bloc Quebecois 11% (+2)
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Green 5% (-1)
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Undecided 12% (+4)
The pollster says this result is accurate to within 3.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The survey was conducted between August 18 and August 23.