Some quick takes on races to watch in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces:
NFLD –
AVALON
Incumbent Conservative Fabian Manning defied Danny Williams when Manning was a backbencher in Williams’ govt and earned his ‘rep’ as being one of the only politicians to stand up to Danny and go on to electoral victory, albeit at the federal level. As the only Conservative incumbent on the island, Manning will feel the brunt of the “wrath of Danny” and his ABC movement.
ST JOHN’S EAST
NDP candidate here is Jack Harris, a former MP and a former leader of the provincial NDP. He’s also one of Williams’ buddies (former law partner I believe). If the Conservative vote collapses on the island, the NDP could have their first MP from here in a long time. The riding was held by retiring Tory Norman Doyle.
PEI
EGMONT –
The Tories were shut out of the four seats on the Island in 2006, though Harper was on the Island twice in 2006. He was on the island twice this time, too, including Monday. The Tories feel good about winning Egmont. Incumbent Liberal Joe McGuire is retiring. The Liberals had a candidate, then he quit, the Tories said, because of the carbon tax.
MALPEQUE
Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz joked that he wished Liberal MP Wayne Easter got hit with listeriosis. It wasn’t a funny joke but the sentiment is one widely shared in the Tory caucus. Easter is among a handful of Liberals loathed by the Tories. Easter should win but the Tories would love surprise victory here.
NOVA SCOTIA
CENTRAL NOVA
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May tries to knock off Defence Minister Peter MacKay. It looks like this will be the second time May's name has been on a ballot — and the second time she will lose.
WEST NOVA
Liberal Robert Thibault was first elected in 2000 but his plurality has declined every election. In 2006, he beat Greg Kerr by a few hundred votes. Kerr is back for round 2 but Thibault said he was too old. That line prompted Marjory LeBreton to take a shot at Thibault. (Kerr is just 60) and Thibault told LeBreton to go back to serving tea to Brian Mulroney. Speaking of which — Mulroney sued Thibault for libel during the whole Mulroney-Schreiber affair. Like Easter, Thibault is a Liberal Tories would take personal satisfaction in beating.
NEW BRUNSWICK
FREDERICTON
A small-c conservative riding that had been returning Liberal Andy Scott. Scott has now retired, and there’s a good chance this could be a rare Atlantic Canada win for the Conservatives.
MADAWASKA-RESTIGOUCHE
Liberal Jean-Claude D’Amours has been targeted as weak by the Tories who want to steal this northern New Brunswick riding. Harper campaigned there right after the debates.
QUEBEC
AHUNTSIC
If Liberal fortunes in Quebec are reviving, this would be a place to start. Liberal Eleni Bakopanos lost to the BQ in 2006; she’s back and hopes to win it for the Libs. Maria Mourani holds this for the Bloc right now.
BEAUHARNOIS-SALABERRY
DRUMMOND
RICHMOND-ARTHABASKA
SHERBROOKE
If the Conservatives really are going to be Bloc killers, then the BQ incumbents in thee ridings to the south and east of Montreal should be worried. Folks here, the parties say, are small-c conservatives and won’t be phased one bit by plans to cut funding to those snooty downtown Montreal artists. SHERBROOKE is in the neighborhood but that race has an extra dynamic with Tory Andre Bachand running against BQ incumbent Serge Cardin. Bachand was Jean Charest’s emissary in Ottawa for the last few years and, before that, was a PC MP. He once hated Harper and hated the merger. Now he thinks Harper is fantastic. If Charest’s people help Bachand out, it could be a long night for Cardin. Late polls this week, though show Bachand is way back in SHERBROOKE and the Tories are trailing the Bloc elsewhere.
TROIS-RIVIERES
As our colleague Liz Thompson said, if the Trois-Rivieres of the world start throwing out BQ MPs in favour of Conservatives, here comes a majority government. Quebec polls seem to indicate BQ incumbent Paule Brunelle here should be safe.
CHICOUTIMI-LE FJORD
ROBERVAL-LAC ST. JEAN
JONQUIERE-ALMA
The region known as the Saguenay was once a three-riding BQ stronghold. Then, in 2006, Jean-Pierre Blackburn came out of nowhere to win JONQUIERE-ALMA. He became the Conservative’s chief political minister for “the regions” in Quebec and his work paid off with a byelection victory in the second of the Saguenay three, ROBERVAL-LAC ST. JEAN when Denis Lebel won a year and a bit ago. Lebel is back to defend his win. In the third of the Saguenay three, BQ incumbent Robert Bouchard is trying to maintain his party’s beach head in the Saguenay from the Tory march. The BQ are muttering that not only will Bouchard hold, but they will knock Blackburn off his perch.
GATINEAU
Bloc MP Richard Nadeau knocked off Liberal incumbent Francoise Boivin in 2006. Boivin is back for a re-match but this time she’s carrying the ball for Jack Layton’s NDP. The NDP think this may be their best chance for another MP from la belle province.
OUTREMONT
Some think Thomas Mulcair could be a successor to Jack Layton if and when that time comes. But Mulcair will have to win this former Liberal stronghold in a general election. He won it a year ago in a byelection. Mulcair’s win was the result of the collapse of the Bloc vote and what Liberals themselves said was a disorganized spirtless fight.
PAPINEAU
A star is born? Justin Trudeau fought for and won the right to try to beat incumbent BQ MP Vivian Barbeau, who, in 2006, knocked out Liberal cabinet minister Pierre Pettigrew.
QUEBEC
BEAUPORT-LIMOILOU
CHARLESBOURG-HAUTE-SAINT-CHARLES
LOUIS-HÉBERT
LOUIS-SAINT-LAURENT
The Tories hold every Quebec City riding except Quebec, the riding in the downtown core. The Tories want it all; BQ incumbent Christiane Gagnon wants to stop them. Not only are Gagnon and the BQ likely to stop them, but the BQ could knock out some Tories. Cons incumbents Sylvie Boucher in BEAUPORT-LIMOILOU, Daniel Petit in CHARLESBOURG, and Luc Harvey in LOUIS-HÉBERT are worried. Heritage Minister Josée Verner is the minister who was supposed to stop those arts funding cuts. Will she suffer as a result in LOUIS-SAINT-LAURENT. On the south shore, Cons incumb Steven Blaney is likely OK in LEVIS-BELLECHASSE as is Jacques Gourde in Lotbinière–Chutes-de-la-Chaudière.
VAUDREUIL-SOULANGES
West end of Montreal, just off the island, is former senator Michael Fortier’s last stand. Had a decent shot at the beginning of the campaign, but hope may be fading with Quebecers’ fury over arts cuts and harsh sentences for teenagers. One to watch, nonetheless.
WESTMOUNT VILLE-MARIE
How could this not be a Liberal seat? Was held by Lucienne Robillard, then when she retired, famous astronaut Marc Garneau picked up the nomination. But he’s facing a decent challenge from the NDP, who are running local CBC radio host Anne Lagace Dowson. Can Dowson do what Mulcair did next door in Outremont?