Contractual obligation fulfilled! The Cabinet Spec blog post

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is widely expected to name his new cabinet this week. Possibly as early as Tuesday morning but perhaps he'll do it Wednesday.

So as only three people likely know for sure who's in cabinet — Harper, his chief of staff Nigel Wright and principal secretary Ray Novak — let's speculate away and, in doing so, fulfill one of the time-honoured olibagations of the Ottawa Pundit Class.

Vacancies

We start with the holes that the prime minister has to be fill:

• Minister of Foreign Affairs (incumbent Lawrence Cannon defeated on May 2)
• Minster of Veterans Affairs (incumbent Jean-Pierre Blackburn defeated)
• Minister of State (Agriculture) (incumbent Jean-Pierre Blackburn defeated)
• Minister of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities (incumbent Chuck Strahl retired)
• President of the Treasury Board (incumbent Stockwell Day retired)
• Minister for the Asia-Pacific Gateway (incumbent Stockwell Day retired)
• Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs (incumbent Josée Verner defeated)
• President of the Queen's Privy Council (incumbent Josée Verner defeated)
• Minister for La Francophonie (incumbent Josée Verner defeated)
• Minister of State (Sport) ((incumbent Gary Lunn defeated)

So if Harper divvies up some of those simultaneous appointments and fills each hole with one person, this frees up 10 new cabinet positions.

Harper's Shuffle History

Through all his cabinet shuffles, including the one after the 2008 election, Harper has shown remarkable loyalty to all his ministers, never using a cabinet shuffle to send a cabinet minister all the way the backbenches. Certainly Gary Lunn suffered a demotion going from Minister of Natural Resources before the 2008 election to Minister of State after the election and Lisa Raitt was also given a relatively less important portfolio when she ended up becoming MInister of Labour after the famous lost tape-recorder institute while she was Minister of Natural Resources.

The only other two ministers who have left cabinet for reasons other than resignation were Maxime Berner (resigned Foreign Affairs after leaving secret documents at his girlfriend's house) and Helena Guergis (fired for — well, we're not quite sure).

So we might assume then that anyone who was in cabinet before the election can expect to be back in cabinet next week.

Also: Harper has often put “rookie MPs” into a minister of state or secretary of state role before consideration for full minister. Julian Fantino is a good example. Thought to be ready to leap into a full cabinet job, Harper named him Minister of State for Seniors after his byelection. Peter Kent was a minister of state before becoming a full minister. This is one reason why I believe someone like the capable Kellie Leitch, who occupies Guergis' old seat in Simcoe-Grey, may find herself as a MInister of State (for Sport, maybe?) rather than becoming full-time minister. Same with the much-heralded Chris Alexander. Perhaps Alexander, with his long career as a diplomat, becomes Minister of State for External Affairs. Or, almost better in the sense he might get a chance to play more of a policy role, make him chair of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs committee.

Dual Portfolios

Many cabinet incumbents hold two portfolios. Let's strip those incumbents of all but their “major porfolio” to create some new potential vacancies. They include:

• Minister for Status of Women (Held by Public Works Minister Rona Ambrose)
• Minister for the Canadian Wheat Board (Held by Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz)
• Minister of the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency (held by Revenue Minister Keith Ashfield)
• Minister for the Atlantic Gateway (held by Revenue Minister Keith Ashfield)
• Minister for the Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency (held by Indian and Northern Affairs Minister John Duncan)
• Minister of State for the Federal Economic Develoment Agency for Southern Ontario (held by Minister for State for Science and Technology Gary Goodyear)

If all those positions are filled with new people, this frees up 6 new cabinet positions.

The size of cabinet

If you combine the open positions from those who retired or who were defeated with the positions that might open from splitting up responsibilities among those who held two portfolios, you end up with a possibility of 16 new cabinet positions.

Now, if you add the 32 cabinet incumbents (ministers and ministers of state) to a potential 16 new people, you end up with a cabinet of 48 people. That's mighty big. Harper will almost certainly want to set a tone of austerity by keeping the overall number of ministers and ministers of state to roughly the same number as in the last Parliament. There were 38 MPs who held the title of Minister or Minister of State in the last Parliament. Given the fact that that there are 32 incumbents, that leaves room for six newbies to become ministers of state or ministers. My guess — and, let me emphasize, your guess is no better than mine — is that Harper might go to 40 but not beyond that for the minister/minister of state class.

Regional and Gender Considerations

Like all prime ministers before him, Harper will want to have representatives from all the provinces and regions in his cabinet. That makes Labrador MP Peter Penashue a shoo-in to cabinet as he is the Conservative's lone MP from Newfoundland and Labrador. Being the sole MP from her province was also Prince Edward Islander Gail Shea's ticket to a driver and car. He has plenty of options to choose from for representation from Toronto and Vancouver but there's no Tories anywhere near Montreal and only five to choose from in Quebec.

As for gender, there were just 10 of the 38 Ministers/Ministers of State in the last cabinet who were women. Harper has a chance to boost this which could help out the likes of returning MPs like Candice Hoeppner, Shelly Glover, and Kelly Block as well as new MPs like Leitch, Stella Ambler, and Eve Adams.

My significant picks

Jim Flaherty stays at Finance. Tony Clement stays at Industry. Peter MacKay stays at Defence. Ritz stays at Agriculture. Jason Kenney gets foreign affairs. John Baird goes to Justice. Rob Nicholson goes to Treasury Board. Aglukkaq is Minister for Indian and Northern Affairs. James Moore to Transport. John Duncan goes to Public Works. Rona Ambrose is your new Heritage Minister. Finley to Immigration. Raitt to Human Resources. Gail Shea to Labour and Penashue to Fisheries and Oceans. Mark Adler, Bernard Trottier, Bernard Valcourt, Block, Leitch, Alexander, Hoeppner,  and Ambler are at least ministers of state  I am almost certainly wrong on most of these guesses — but it was still fun to play.