As Labrador by-election gets going, Liberals start with big lead

The federal riding of Labrador is vacant right now after Conservative incumbent Peter Penashue resigned amid allegations that he violated federal election finance laws during the general election of 2011. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has now called the date for the by-election. It will be held on May 13.

Penashue is running again for the Conservatives. He’s up against Liberal Yvonne Jones, a former leader of the provincial Liberal party, and New Democrat Harry Borlase. All the parties have something at stake in this by-election even though the by-election’s outcome won’t make much difference to layout of the House of Commons.

Pollster Abacus Data finds that, as the campaign gets underway, the Liberals have a big, big lead and the Conservatives and New Democrats are trailing badly.

Here’s Abacus CEO David Coletto:

Among those who voted for incumbent Peter Penashue in 2011, 45% say they will vote again for the incumbent MP while 41% say they will vote for the Liberal candidate.

Among 2011 NDP supporters, a majority (56%) say they will vote for Liberal Yvonne Jones instead of NDP candidate Harry Borlase.

“Yvonne Jones is headed to a landslide victory because she has secured past Liberal supporters as well as a large portion of those who voted NDP and Conservative in May 2011,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. “Even if everyone who voted Conservative in the federal election votes Conservative again, a Penashue victory is unlikely because Yvonne Jones is pulling so many past NDP voters to her side.”