What the RCMP is telling us about Guergis and investigations

In Ottawa, we all want to know if Helena Guergis is actually being investigated by the RCMP. If I read between the lines of what her lawyer's been saying, I get the sense she wants to know, too.

We know the RCMP has a letter from Prime Minister Stephen Harper's office in which the PMO asks the RCMP to check out allegations that disturbed him enough to fire her as the Minister of State for Status of Women.

The reason we want to know if the RCMP has fired up an investigation is more than just a semantic exercise; it would be a kind of vindication from an independent, third party of Harper's claim, which he has made often enough, that he acted on “credible and reliable” allegations in tossing Guergis within hours of learning of those allegations. Those allegations came to the PMO via a private investigator, Derrick Snowdy. Snowdy was investigating Toronto businessman Nazim Gillani when Gillani hinted to Snowdy that Gillani had photographs of Guergis and her husband Rahim Jaffer using cocaine and hanging out with hookers. There is also suggestions that Guergis and Jaffer may have been meeting with Gillani to set up offshore tax havens for some unknown nefarious purpose.

Guergis says all the allegations are nonsense.

Snowdy has said he has never actually seen any such photographs and has no direct knowledge of any offshore bank accounts set up for Jaffer. Gillani right now is facing fraud charges on a separate matter. If those are the allegations Harper acted on — second-hand gossip from an accused fraudster – it would seem, on the face of it, to be pretty thin. And you would think that the word of a privy councillor – that's what Guergis is — who has been working side-by-side with Harper since 2004 would earn her at least a chance to explain herself or, simply resign as minister of state but remain in caucus until any funny business was cleared up. But, no, Harper lowered the boom just like that and, if the RCMP begins an investigation, the cops would essentially be confirming Harper's judgement and perhaps validating his swift and rather merciless action. In the absence of any investigation, Harper's political opponents can say he called in the police as an excuse to get rid of an increasingly unpopular member of his cabinet who was becoming a political liability.

So what do we know about the status of the investigation?

Well, the investigator, Snowdy, told my friend Jennifer Ditchburn at The Canadian Press that the RCMP, when they interviewed him this week, as much told him that a full-fledged investigation was underway. “It was my second meeting with them and everything has now been turned over to them and I think we can say safely say they are satisfied and moving forward,” Snowdy told CP. “They said, 'We're in the middle of an investigation.'”

Sounds pretty definitive to me.

But when we asked Snowdy about that, he told my colleague Carolyn Jarvis of Global National that “CP has it wrong.”

In any event: Neither the PMO nor the Guergis' lawyer had been told, as of late last night, that there was any change in the status of the RCMP's interest in Guergis.

So what about the RCMP? They're trying to say as little as possible. When told about Snowdy's claim that an investigation was under way and asked to confirm those comments, here's what Insp. Marc Richer provided to me:

The RCMP acknowledges that it has received a referral of this matter from the Prime Minister's office.

   * Based on an evaluation of the information provided, the RCMP may or may not initiate an investigation.

   * If it is determined that an investigation is not warranted, the RCMP would advise the complainant privately of this result.

   * If it is determined that an investigation is warranted, one would be initiated. In order to protect the integrity of the investigation, the evidence obtained, and the privacy of those involved, the RCMP would not offer any comment during the course of the investigation.

   * Every investigation is unique in the challenges it may present, and the time required to complete them is based on many factors, including: the nature and complexity of the allegations, the number of individuals involved (suspects and witnesses), the number of witnesses that need to be interviewed as well as their availability and location, the characteristics of the evidence trail

Only in the event that an investigation results in the laying of criminal charges, would the RCMP confirm its investigation, the nature of any charges laid and the identity of the individual (s) involved.

Should the investigation not generate sufficient evidence to support the laying of criminal charges, the RCMP would conclude its file and advise the complainant privately of this result.

In the course of responding to complaints, RCMP investigators routinely speak with persons to help determine substance of allegations.

Doesn't really shed much light on the status of Guergis' case, does it?

But that statement from Richer does, it seems to me, represent quite a change in approach from 2005 when the RCMP told a complainant named Judy Wasylycia-Leis that, yes, indeed, Mounties had sufficient grounds to open an investigation into a certain Mr. Ralph Goodale for breach of trust over the income trust scandal. As Wasylycia-Leis learned of this in the middle of an election campaign and, as she happened to be a New Democrat and poor old Goodale was the Liberal finance minister, she told everyone that the cops were investigating the Liberals. Turned out no charges were ever laid and the investigation into Goodale and his political circle came to nothing but we wouldn't find out about that until well after Stephen Harper and the Conservatives had won the 2006 general election.

The Liberals say that decision by the RCMP, more than any other single factor, was the reason they lost that election.

Now that a Conservative MP is facing allegations, the national force is clamming up.