Weather forecasters do important work, says study by weather forecasters

Canadians are crazy about the weather. It's the default topic whenever there's a lull in the conversation anywhere anytime. At many of the smaller papers, I worked, our line story on the front page would often be a weather story.

“Thunder Bay gets socked with snow” the headline of the Chronicle-Journal would blare from time to time in mid-February telilng all those in that northern Ontario city what they surely already knew. And yet, my editors at the Chronicle-Journal thought — and probably correctly so — that people would buy a paper that told them what the weather did yesterday so that we could all share in that common weather experience and have something to chat about at the coffee shop.

Now comes news supporting the thesis that weather information is, in fact, one of the things people hunger for. Mind you, it's a study by weather forecasters that say weather forecasting is really important and isn't getting the public funding it deserves. But perhaps I quibble.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research announced this morning that 90 per cent of American adults obtain a weather forecast regularly and most want their weather three times a day! (Though NCAR, a U.S. government agency, studied the weather info habits of Americans, my gut tells me that the data would be pretty similar for a Canadian survey.)

From the NCAR press release:

U.S. adults obtain an estimated 300 billion forecasts each year, says NCAR scientist and lead author Jeffrey Lazo. The study also reveals that most people are generally satisfied with weather forecasts and have fairly high confidence in forecasts with a lead time of one to two days.

“Weather forecasts equate to an enormous volume and multiplicity of information, when you account for the array of forecast providers, communication channels, and the size and diversity of the U.S. population,” Lazo says.

Lazo is an NCAR scientist and his study is based on an Internet-based survey he did in late 2006.

Lazo argues that he and other weather experts are not getting the kind of resources that their importance in the lives of Americans might deserve.

First, he asked his survey respondents — more than 1,500 — how many times a day they used a weather forecast and then he asked them how much they'd pay, if they had to, for each forecast. Answer to the last one — about a dime.

So Lazo then makes the jump that, if 300 billion forecasts are served up each year in the U.S. and they're worth a dime each, that means weather forecasters are serving up something with a market value of $31.5 billion:

In comparison, the cost of providing forecasts by government agencies and private companies is $5.1 billion, according to the paper.

“Our estimates indicate that Americans are getting a good deal on weather forecasts,” says Lazo. “While it's hard to precisely estimate the value of the forecasts, it is clear that there is a significant difference between the cost of forecasts and the value that people place on them.”

Where do people get their forecasts? The scientists asked about that and here's their response:

The most common source for forecast information is local television stations, with individuals obtaining forecasts 33.7 times per month on average. Cable television and radio are the next most popular sources. Web pages and newspapers were less common sources overall, but both are a daily or more frequent source of forecasts for 27 percent of respondents.

The press release also has this paragraph which I'm quite sure even a non-scientist could have concluded:

Many people use forecasts for planning specific activities, such as vacations, and routine daily activities, such as deciding what to wear and how to get to work or school. The peak periods for accessing forecasts are the early morning, early evening, and late evening, says (Lazo's co-author Julie) Demuth.