On Friday, I tried to think through who will be in Stephen Harper’s cabinet when he unveils it on Monday. In that post, I noted that no one knows for sure but, in interviews with Conservative MPs, Conservative political staffers, Conservative strategists and other pundits and observers in Ottawa, it’s possible to come up with some educated guesses.
I got a lot of reaction and corrective analysis to that first run-through of the cabinet and so, here’s some additional thoughts and modifications to that first list (likely a good idea to read that first post before coming to this one):
Big picture:
- Harper's cabinet would have 23/24 members including Harper and the Senate Leader.
- It would have 8 MPs from Ontario, 5 MPs from Alberta (incl. Harper); 3 or 4 from Quebec, 3 from Atlantic Canada, 2 from B.C., 2 from Saskatchewan, and 1 from Manitoba.
- It would have five women.
- Lawrence Cannon (Pontiac) is deputy prime minister.
The details-
- Stockwell Day is not going to be in cabinet. Harper is going with merit over loyalty or friendship. On merit, Day is out (think Niagara Falls). I think Harper may recognize that Day has matured a great deal since his days as a party leader and while he won’t get a big slot like Foreign Affairs, he’d do OK looking after the Canada Revenue Agency. Plus, if he’s not in, B.C. likely only has Jay Hill and James Moore at the cabinet table. I suppose Harper could Betty Hinton into cabinet instead of Stock to give B.C. three cabinet seats. In any event, no one’s yet explained how Harper would get away with just two cabinet representatives from B.C. when Alberta could have more than twice that many.
- Monte Solberg is not going to be in cabinet, some of my sources say. If Solberg is not in the cabinet, it might be because of a performance that was described as “dreadful” by some when his party unveiled the cost of its election platform. A source who will be part of the PMO says Solberg’s performance at that event was “an eyeopener” to Harper and s/he didn’t mean that in a good way. I tend to think that Solberg’s overall competence and political smarts trump that particular campaign hiccup and that Harper will put Solberg in the cabinet. None of the sources I spoke to have him in Finance. Those that do have him in have him in Foreign Affairs. I still like him for Public Works but there are those within his party who believe Harper may overlook for him Cabinet. “This is the battle formation,” a senior Conservative source said, noting that Monday’s cabinet will be filled with the people who will take the Tories to the next election and who must deliver on the five priorities.
- There is a growing consensus Rob Nicholson will get Finance.
- I picked Senator Hugh Segal (Ontario) as the Government Leader in the Senate but I would not be surprised if Senator Marjory LeBreton (Ontario) took that job. Late this week, I had a Conservative staffer make a convincing argument that Sen. Noel Kinsella (New Brunswick) will keep his job as the top Conservative in the Senate — and be the political minister for New Brunswick rather than Greg Thompson.
- Saskatchewan will have one minister for sure and possibly two. They will be, in this order, Carol Skelton and Gerry Ritz. I had originally picked Skelton but I thought that if there would be two from Saskatchewan, Lynne Yelich would be number two.
- Jason Kenney gets in cabinet as House Leader say several sources. So does Jay Hill — Hill was Opposition House Leader in the last Parliament — but look for him to be tapped for something like Natural Resources. I’m of two minds here. I think the other house leaders — Michel Gauthier of the Bloc Quebecois and Libby Davies of the NDP — get along well with Hill (or at least better than they might be with Kenney) and, because of that, there would be a basis for productive negotiations. On the other hand, I think Harper believes Kenney is more of a master of the ins and outs of House protocol which may be more important for the government as it tries to get the Conservative platform adopted in a minority Parliament. If Kenney is not House Leader, he will not be in cabinet but would likely be the Whip.
- Steven Fletcher, who represents a Winnipeg area riding and was health critic in the last Parliament, does not make the cabinet. Harper may see him as having potential but still too young and inexperienced. If that’s true, Manitoba would have only one individual at the cabinet table — Vic Toews.
- Gordon O'Connor will not be in cabinet but his riding neighbour Scott Reid will be and will be given the “Democratic Renewal” portfolio.
- Diane Finley, the wife of winning war room director Doug Finley, and Bev Oda will be in from Ontario. Oda gets Heritage. Don't know what Finley gets but not Agriculture. Finley was agriculture critic in the last Parliament and Oda was Heritage critic.
- Diane Ablonczy is in but likely gets the very big task of managing HRDC. Some sources I’ve spoken to say Ablonczy is not in but that Solberg is in. Solberg travelled to Ottawa over the weekend. Ablonczy, I’m told, is still in Calgary.
- One source told me that most of the leading lights have been told that they should stay in the country this weekend and be ready to travel. Another source says that those who are not getting a cabinet job have already been given the bad news.
- Brian Jean (Fort McMurray-Athabaska) knows he’s not going into cabinet, but he sent his leader a DVD resume hoping for a decent Committee chair or other plum assignment.