Category: Politics/Polls

The CTV Poll: Conservatives on the edge of a majority

The federal budget tabled Monday has struck a positive chord with many voters, giving the Conservatives a bump in the polls and heightening the possibility of late spring or early summer election.

The latest poll, provided to CTV News and The Globe and Mail by The Strategic Counsel, finds Conservative support at 39 per cent following the federal budget, up three percentage points compared to polls taken before the budge was tabled. Liberal support is unchanged at 31 per cent but support for the NDP, Bloc Quebecois and Green  Party has dropped.

Perhaps more importantly, Ontario voters seem to be jumping on the Conservative bandwagon. The poll found that the Liberals and Conservatives are tied for voter support in Ontario at about 40 per cent.

Here’s the numbers:

How would you vote if an election were held today?

  1. Conservative Candidate: 39 per cent (up 3 percentage points since March 10)
  2. Liberal candidate: 31 per cent (unchanged)
  3. NDP: 13 per cent (down 2 percentage points)
  4. Green Party: (down 1 percentage point)
  5. Bloc Quebecois (down 1 percentage point)

Quebec results:

  1. Bloc Quebecois: 33 per cent (down 3)
  2. Liberal: 24 (up 2)
    Conservative: 24 per cent (down 2)
  3. Green: 11 per cent (up 4)
  4. NDP: 8 per cent (down 1)

Ontario results:

  1. Conservatives: 40 per cent (up 6)
    Liberals: 40 per cent (down 1)
  2. NDP: 13 per cent (down 2)
  3. Green Party: 7 per cent (down 3)

The fine print:

Interviews were conducted March 20 and 21. The Strategic Counsel surveyed 1,000 Canadians and believes the results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20. There is a higher margin of error for regional results. For example, the Quebec survey is accurate to within 6.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

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Polls galore

A couple of new polls are out for everyone to chew over for those trying to figure out when the next federal  election campaign might happen.

Here’s the national picture from SES Research:

  • Conservative Party – 33%
  • Liberal – 33%
  • NDP – 17%
  • BQ – 10%
  • Green Party – 7%

SES polled 913 Canadians by phone between February 2nd and 8th, and says the national results are accurate to within 3.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

And here’s the view from Leger Marketing. Their sample is a little bigger and, as a result, their margin of error is a little smaller:

  • Conservative Party – 33%
  • Liberal – 27%
  • NDP – 12%
  • BQ – 7%
  • Green Party – 6%

Leger polled 1,500 Canadians between January 30 and February 4, 2007 and says that their results are accurate to within 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

Now both pollsters took a look at support in the two most populous provinces, Ontario and Quebec. These results are less accurate but here they are nonetheless. (N=Number of people survedy; MoE=equals margin of error, 19 times out of 20, the number in parentheses () indicates the change since pollster’s last survey)

SES:

Quebec (N=234, MoE ±6.5)
BQ – 39% (-11)
Liberal – 27% (+2)
Conservative Party – 20% (+8)
NDP – 8% (-2)
Green Party – 6% (+2)

Ontario (N=262, MoE ±6.1, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal – 38% (-6)
Conservative – 36% (no change)
NDP – 19% (+3)
Green Party – 8% (+3)

Leger:

Quebec (N=337, MoE ±not provided)
BQ – 31%
Liberal – 32%
Conservative Party – 24%
NDP – 6%
Green Party – 5%

Ontario (N=500, MoE – not provided)
Liberal – 35%
Conservative – 40%
NDP – 16%
Green Party – 8%

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What and who is trendy? Ask Google …

The stuff in the labs at search engine giant Google is always fun to play with. Right now, Google is working on something called Google Trends. You type in small list of items and Google shoots back a graph of a ‘trendline’ which, I guess, shows you what’s trendy and what’s not.

So I typed in: harper, dion, layton, duceppe and here’s the results for 2006. Harper’s the blue line, dion’s the red line, layton’s orange, et Duceppe est vert. Head to the page itelf for more analysis (what do the letters mean) and a breakdown by selected cities of who’s trendy.

Google TrendYou might also want to try a few “trend matches” for 2006, like:

 

Nik's numbers: August 25

If an election were held today — the result might be just about the same as it was on January 24. But, as pollster Nik Nanos notes, the Conservatives might not have 10 MPs from Quebec. Maybe they’d pick up one or two more each in Atlantic Canada, in Ontario, and in Manitoba and B.C.?

The key to a Conservative majorty, everyone says, is more seats in Quebec. So how’s that going? Well, according to the latest poll from Nanos’ company SES Research, Conservative support has dropped nine points in la belle province since his firm was last in the field three months ago. (35 per cent on May 9 vs 26 per cent at August 23).

The leaderless Liberals actually gained in Quebec compared to May and are up to 22 per cent. The BQ had the biggest bounceback, jumping up five points to 42 per cent. “The softening of support in Quebec this quarter should be worrisome for the Tories,” Nanos writes.

The big story in Ontario: The Conservatives are spinning their wheels (36 per cent three months ago – 37 per cent now) but the Liberals — remember: They have no leader — have jumped eight points (34 per cent then to 42 per cent now). The NDP — remember: they have a leader -has slipped in Ontario (24 then, 18 now) and nationally (18 now, 19 then).

Important note: Because of a smaller sample size at the regional level there is a larger margin of error.

The latest national numbers from SES are:

  • Conservatives 36% (-2)

  • Liberals 30% (+2)

  • NDP 18% (-1)

  • Bloc Quebecois 11% (+2)

  • Green 5% (-1)

  • Undecided 12% (+4)

The pollster says this result is accurate to within 3.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The survey was conducted between August 18 and August 23.