Talking to Jack about talking to the Taliban

NDP Leader Jack Layton speaks to reporters after Question Period today:

Reporter: Mr. Layton, your political opponents have been calling you “Taliban Jack”. Now it looks like we've got “Taliban Barack Obama”, “Taliban Stephen Harper”. Are you getting some company on your side?

Layton: Well, I'm certainly pleased that the Prime Minister has come to accept the position we've advanced for quite some time now that you've got to get involved in negotiations with elements of this insurgency known broadly as the Taliban because it's not a conflict that can ever be won militarily. Now that George Bush is gone from the White House and Barack Obama is there, maybe these arguments have been a little more persuasive on our Prime Minister. That's a good thing. Now Canada should become very active in this process. I think we should use our reputation as peacemakers to be active through the UN and offer our capacities to help sides get together and to actually start talking.

Reporter: The Taliban were a nasty bunch when they were in power, a very oppressive regime. I doubt you want to come out on International Women's Day or the day after and say we should just talk to any of them. So how do you decide who you talk to and who you don't within that?

Layton: Well, what we've got to do, as we've said all along, is reach out to the moderate elements of the insurgency and draw them into discussions. It needs to a comprehensive process involving all the tools that are available for the UN. The UN has many different components that can help make this a success and we've said that Canada should be very active in trying to be involved in all those dimensions because we've got a great reputation and a great expertise here in Canada. I think we can help and we can help it to happen in a way that protects women's rights better than we saw under the previous regime.

Reporter: Are there moderate elements to the Taliban?

Layton: You know the insurgency is composed of a whole series of different components and elements. I mean this is a society that some have described as almost clan-based. It's very mountainous. There's these little communities of interest and focus. Each of them has their own political structure and dynamic and if you can begin to separate some of these organizations and groups and leaders from those that are on the most extreme end, then you can begin to weaken the insurgency through diplomacy, through negotiation. That's what we've always meant by a comprehensive approach to the pursuit of peace in Afghanistan and the accomplishment of some cease-fires area by area. I'm glad the Prime Minister is seeing the wisdom of this approach now. Now let's make sure Canada is a very active proponent of it and involved in it and bringing forward resources to help.

Reporter: Are you feeling vindicated in your approach?

Layton: Look, it's not a question of that. It's a question of being thankful that the Prime Minister is now seeing that the pursuit of peace in Afghanistan requires negotiation. We've been trying to convince him of that for some time. He's come to that conclusion. I welcome it. Let's make sure that Canada is very active using those skills and that reputation that we have as a country for being involved in peacemaking.

The only leader to stand up to Harper …

… is Jack Layton. So says the new radio spots the New Democratic Party plans to begin airing today.

One spot argues that everyday families were “counting on Michael Ignatieff” to stand up to Stephen Harper but “he failed” in his first test as Liberal Leader. Now, “Jack Layton's the only leader strong enough to stand up to Harper and get us through this economic crisis,” a female announcer says.

Layton, of course, and a handful of other NDP MPs would have been ministers in a Liberal-led government had Ignatieff decided to choose a coalition government instead of Flaherty's budget.

The NDP says these ads will air in parts of the country where they found electoral success last fall and in parts where they believe they can pick up seats in the next election. So, I'm sorry, Western Canada, you're not going to hear them on the radio but you can check them out on the NDP's Web site. For those of you in Northern Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador, South Western Ontario, Ottawa, Toronto, and Vancouver — keep your ears open when listening to the radio.

Meanwhile, I can tell you that the Conservatives this morning were continuing to air their radio spots attacking the idea of a coalition government. Heard one on the radio on the way in to work this morning.

Don Drummond: Rock Star

The federal New Democratic Party national caucus held an open, i.e. media is welcome, roundtable on the economy today. The NDP roundtable featured presentations from some notable economy experts, including Don Drummond, a former senior bureaucrat at the Department of Finance and now the Chief Economist at the TD Bank.

Two things struck me as I listened to the two-hour roundtable that was at times a little windy but was also filled with the occasional nugget.

First, the very event, it seemed to me, was primarily a political one or one that was organized to serve a political objective, namely to so that the NDP could be seen to be credible on economy issues. NDP members, including leader Jack Layton, listened dutifully to the economic advice that was being offered and asked some relatively intelligent questions.

Second: I was struck at just what kind of rock star, if you will, Drummond has become as a result of the current economic crisis. Drummond is a credible voice on economic policy issues because he seems to be politically unaligned. That's not to say he does not have opinions on policy issues but he views the policy debate in terms of economic outcomes not political outcomes. Where social goals or other non-economic goals play upon a particular policy choice, Drummond recognizes that his area of expertise is not in these non-economic areas and instead falls back to clearly explaining the economic costs or consquences of various policy options. In that way, the work of Drummond and his team of economists at the TD Bank ends up being cited to support seemingly competing political positions.

I should note here that Drummond is not unique in this respect. Several other Bay Street bank economists – I can think of Merrill Lynch's David Wolf, BMO Nesbitt Burns Douglas Porter, and Scotiabank's Warren Jestin to name a few — who are also effective at playing this kind of influential non-partisan role.

After the panel concluded, several NDP MPs were keen to have their photo snapped with Drummond, no doubt so that they could be used in the next MP newsletter. – “See, mom, I've been talking to important economists!” Drummond seemed to suffer the grip-and-grins with good humour and patience.

I'll have more once I go through my notes on some of the nuggets that came out of the meeting.

Will the NDP vote for the budget?

I'm in the lobby of 140 O'Connor, the office tower in downtown Ottawa that houses the offices of the Minister of Finance (and the Treasury Board president, for that matter).

A few minutes ago, NDP finance critic Thomas Mulcair and his caucus colleague Judy Wasylycia-Leis passed through here on the way up to meet with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

Earlier today, the NDP pair held a press conference to talk about the budget and their expectations.

Mulcair was asked if would give the Tories a chance with the budget. He said:

“Is it possible we will support the budget? Look, let's be realistic. Based on what the Conservatives have said and done in the past, it's very unlikely we will do that. However, miracles can always happen.”

Why do they feel that way?

“There's a lot of scepticism on our end as to whether or not they're sincere, as to whether they can be believed,” Mulcair said.

Mulcair said that, among other things, the sceptism was bred partly by Flaherty standing up in the House to give the Economic and Fiscal Statement and saying there would be no deficit and then, two weeks later, saying there would be:

“All of a sudden he tells us he's painted too rosy a picture. I don't where you come from, but where I come from that's called lying,” said Mulcair. “When he said that there was going to be no budget deficit and then two weeks later he admitted that there was, either he's got a bunch of incompetents — and I don't believe that's the case – giving him advice or he was making it up. And I do believe that that was the case. He was saying the opposite of the truth to Canadians. And I think they should be called to account for that.

“This is a question of trust, a question of confidence. Can Canadians trust this government?”

NDP only party on 308 ballots

Even though the NDP has had more trouble than other parties with some of its candidates, it managed to get on the ballot in each of Canada's 308 ridings by the Elections Canada cutoff date of Sept. 22. In fact, it was the only party to do that.
Parties will scramble to get any warm body on the ballot by that cutoff date because Elections Canada sets the national spending limits based on the number of voters in each riding that the party has fielded a candidate — by that cutoff date of Sept. 22.
So anyone dropping off after that date does not affect a party's spending limit.
So, no matter what happens after Sept. 22 to candidates who end up bailing for smoking dope, running around naked, or saying mean things on the Internet about others, here's the number of ridings each party is officially contesting on Oct. 14:

Party Contested Ridings
New Democratic Party 308
Conservative Party of Canada 307
Liberal Party of Canada 307
Green Party of Canada 303
Bloc Québécois 75
Independent 67
Christian Heritage Party of Canada 59
Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada 59
Libertarian Party of Canada 26
Communist Party of Canada 24
Canadian Action Party 20
Progressive Canadian Party 10
Marijuana Party 8
neorhino.ca 7
First Peoples National Party of Canada 6
Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada 4
No Affiliation 4
Newfoundland and Labrador First Party 3
People's Political Power Party of Canada 2
Western Block Party 1
Work Less Party 1

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The War Room War

In the wake of last night's French-language debates — which our pollster says Dion did best at — the war rooms of the major parties have been issuing releases left, right, and centre today. These are some summaries of all of the press releases filling my inbox today. It all seems like terribly wasted effort as all the political news that most assignment editors will want for tonight's newscasts and tomorrow's papers will almost certainly be about the two debates on this evening.

The Liberal war room wants us all to know:
• NDP Leader Jack Layton needs to do something about Durham candidate Andrew McKeever who apparently says, on his MySpace page, that he liked the part in Schindler's List “when the guard starts waxing the prisoners” and goes on to say his hero is George W. Bush.
• Conservative MP Cheryl Gallant needs to retract the “lies” she's been telling consituents in her rural Eastern Ontario riding. The Liberals would like her to know that their plan will not tax the use of firewood.
• They have a new television ad, might even be their best yet, though that's probably not saying much. This one reminds viewers that, in 2003, Stephen Harper delivered a speech that had been plagiarized from a speech of Australian Prime Minister John Howard.
• The Liberals followed that up with a press release detailing all the international press coverage with headlines like “Copycat Canadian leader” or “Harper Speech Scandal“.
Harper has no plan for the economic crisis facing Canadians.
• They've launched an anti-Harper Web site: Harpernomics.ca
• A Vancouver woman got a half-a-million dollar government contract shortly after being acclaimed as a Conservative candidate in a riding that is just about the best thing the Liberals have for a lock in B.C. (It's Ujjal Dosanjh's riding in Vancouver South)
• Conservative MP and former minister Michael Chong likes the idea of a carbon tax, thank you very much.
• The NDP would hike EI benefits.
• If you criticize anything the Conservative government does, even if you are demonstrably non-partisan, you are, by definition, a “Liberal.”

The NDP war room asks:
• Why can't the Tories add? Conservative “Bay Street” math doesn't add up when it comes to the cost of the Afghanistan mission. The Tories say it has or will cost $8-billion but the NDP says other estimates suggest it could cost $22-billion.
• Where is the Conservative election platform? The Conservatives are the only party that has not released their election platform. If I were a betting man, I'd say they do it Monday.
• Why are the Liberals contradicting themselves on unemployment insurance? Liberals are misleading Canadians on funds available to help workers, the NDP says.
• What if Dion calls a meeting of premiers and bigwigs on the economy, as he promised last night that he would do, and they all tell him to ditch the carbon tax? (Funny: Several Tories I had a beer with last night said the same thing.)

The Conservative war room reminds us that:
• Dion is hiding — hiding, I tell you! — from his Green Shift.
• Stéphane Dion “discovers the economy but still has no plan.” This picks up on a theme several Tory advisors were scratching their head about after last night's debate. Dion's plan, they said, is to come up with a plan after he's elected? How do you campaign on a plan to plan, they wondered.
• Some Liberals have said some dumb things about their leader, including MP Charles Hubbard, who apparently wondered today how things might have been if Bob Rae or Michael Ignatieff were in charge.
• Dion is a hypocrite when it comes to the issue of arts funding.
• In announcing a new economic plan (or a plan to plan) in the middle of last night's debate, Dion is reminding us that his predecessor did the same thing in a debate in 2006 — and that really didn't turn out well for him.

The Bloc Quebecois war room lets us know that:
• It, too, has some new TV ads featuring various BQ candidates attacking Harper for his rigid ideology.

And then there's the Green Party:
• Party in New Glasgow Saturday night! BYORB! (Bring Your Own Reuseable Bottle!)

Brison kicks off Liberal campaign in Guelph

Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Scott Brison was in Guelph this afternoon where he kicked off the campaign for candidate Frank Valeriote.

Here's the blurb from the Liberal campaign:

Mr. Valeriote and Mr. Brison took specific aim at Conservative Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who earlier this year told a business audience that Ontario is “the last place” to invest.

“The manufacturing sector has been especially hard hit by a high Canadian dollar, soaring energy prices, and a downturn in the US,” said Mr. Brison. “Even though the Canadian economy shrank in the first quarter of the year, the Conservatives ignore the problems and refuse to take action.”

“ We need immediate action on the manufacturing front and a help with a move towards diversifying the Guelph Economy” stated Mr. Valeriote. Mr. Valeriote also praised the Liberal Green Shift plan, which cuts income taxes and provides other tax credits while putting a price on carbon emissions that contribute to climate change.

“The new global economy will be driven by innovation in renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies – a green and diverse economy,” said Mr. Valeriote. “The University of Guelph and industries throughout WellingtonCounty have always been innovators in green technologies. The Green Shift will be good for the economy and for the environment.”

Voters in the Ontario riding of Guelph, along with those in the Quebec ridings of Westmount-Ville Marie and Saint-Lambert, will go to the polls in 40 days to replace the retiring Brenda Chamberlain (Lib.), Lucienne Robillard (Lib.) and Maka Kotto (BQ) respectively.

All three are shaping up as interesting races. Though a cautious gambler would bet on the incumbent parties to hold each seat, there's a reasonable chance of an upset in all three.

Valeriote, whose dad Mico was a long-time city council member and enjoys some cachet from his family's political longevity in Guelph — will face a tough fight.

He's up against NDP candidate Tom King — he of CBC's Dead Dog Café fame — as well as city councillor and Conservative candidate Gloria Kovach and the Green Party's environment critic Mike Nagy. Nagy is unlikely to win but he could draw off enough support from disaffected mainstream voters that his candidacy could significantly affect the final outcome and may even unseat the Liberals.

Kovach has been winning municipal elections for a long time in Guelph but the Conservatives put themselves behind the eight-ball when the national party stepped in earlier this year to fire the locally-chosen candidate Brett Barr. Barr carried the Conservative can in the 2006 general election but, for some reason, was not liked by the national folks. Many local Conservatives were and still are upset with the party for this and, as a result, Kovach has to do some healing within her own ranks while fending off other parties.

King has some name recognition and should easily connect with people he meets on the campaign trail. His problem in Guelph is that Guelph, a fairly affluent, urban riding with a lefty-university, has never come close to electing a New Democrat. It's been Liberal for 15 years; had a Progressive Conservative during Mulroney's premiership, was mostly Liberal during Trudeau's time and was represented by PC MP Alf Hales in the late 60s and early 70s. Hales, incidentally, is pitching in to help Kovach.

UPDATE: Guelph Mercury reporter Magda Konieczna blogs a good point: Until the 2006 election when Liberal Brenda Chamberlain was elected to sit on the opposition benches, the MP from Guelph has sat on the government side since 1972. Prior to Chamberlain, the last Guelph to sit in opposition? Why, that would be the aforementioned Mr. Hales.

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Politicking in Guelph

The federal seat for Guelph is vacant right now. The incumbent, Liberal Brenda Chamberlain, retired in April. Sooner (probably) than later, Prime Minister Harper will have call a bye-election there. I wrote about the match-ups predicting that it could be the Liberals to lose although the Conservatives believe they have a shot at it.

The NDP, however, are very high on this riding and their candidate, Tom King.

In fact, the NDP is putting the full-court press on Guelph tomorrow:

OTTAWA – NDP Leader Jack Layton will join local candidate Tom King and several prominent members of the party’s Ontario caucus in Guelph on Friday to meet with local leaders and tour the city in advance of upcoming by-election.
The City of Guelph is another Ontario community that will be hard hit by the current crisis in the manufacturing industry, with 18 per cent of local jobs coming from that sector. The NDP has long been pushing for a green jobs plan that would not only help limit greenhouse gases but would also help to restore Ontario cities that are seeing layoff after layoff.
“Green-collar jobs are the future for cities like Guelph,” said Layton. “We need to support the growth of good quality, sustainable jobs that will help us clean up our environment and build for the future of Canada’s communities.”
MPs joining Layton in Guelph are Brian Masse (Windsor West), Chris Charlton (Hamilton Mountain), David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre), Irene Mathyssen (London Fanshawe) and Peggy Nash (Parkdale-High Park).

FRIDAY, JUNE 13 GUELPH

8:00 AM Breakfast with City Councillors, Chamber of Commerce and Labour Council Members
Delta Hotel 50 Stone Rd. West


10:00 AM Press Conference
Bookshelf Café Green Room
41 Quebec St.

11:00 AM
CAW Plant Tour Hitachi Construction Truck Manufacturing
200 Woodlawn West

12:00 PM Lunch with Environmental Groups
Diana Restaurant
141 Wyndham St. North

2:00 PM
MPs Meet with Local Civil Society Groups
Evergreen Senior Centre
683 Woolwich St.

4:00 PM
Meet and Greet with Volunteers
Tom King Campaign Headquarters
104-141 Woolwich St.

4:30 PM
Mainstreeting with Tom King
104-141 Woolwich St.

The Conservatives, too, will soon bring some relatively big guns to support their candidate, Gloria Kovach:
Meet Gloria Kovach, candidate for Guelph

Meet special guests, including Ministers, Senators, MPs, and a few surprises, including:
The Hon. John Baird, Minister of the Environment
The Hon. Diane Finley, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration
The Hon. Consiglio Di Nino, Senator for Ontario
The Hon Michael Chong, P.C., M.P. for Wellington-Halton Hills
Gary Goodyear, P.C., M.P. for Cambridge
Bev Shipley, P.C., M.P. for Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Dave Van Kesteren , P.C., M.P. for Chatham-Kent-Essex
Jeff Watson, P.C., M.P. for Essex

Meet the campaign team, mix and mingle with friends, and Enjoy!
Saturday, June 21, 2008
2:00 to 6:00 p.m.
Exhibition Park, Guelph

The CTV Poll: Conservatives on the edge of a majority

The federal budget tabled Monday has struck a positive chord with many voters, giving the Conservatives a bump in the polls and heightening the possibility of late spring or early summer election.

The latest poll, provided to CTV News and The Globe and Mail by The Strategic Counsel, finds Conservative support at 39 per cent following the federal budget, up three percentage points compared to polls taken before the budge was tabled. Liberal support is unchanged at 31 per cent but support for the NDP, Bloc Quebecois and Green  Party has dropped.

Perhaps more importantly, Ontario voters seem to be jumping on the Conservative bandwagon. The poll found that the Liberals and Conservatives are tied for voter support in Ontario at about 40 per cent.

Here’s the numbers:

How would you vote if an election were held today?

  1. Conservative Candidate: 39 per cent (up 3 percentage points since March 10)
  2. Liberal candidate: 31 per cent (unchanged)
  3. NDP: 13 per cent (down 2 percentage points)
  4. Green Party: (down 1 percentage point)
  5. Bloc Quebecois (down 1 percentage point)

Quebec results:

  1. Bloc Quebecois: 33 per cent (down 3)
  2. Liberal: 24 (up 2)
    Conservative: 24 per cent (down 2)
  3. Green: 11 per cent (up 4)
  4. NDP: 8 per cent (down 1)

Ontario results:

  1. Conservatives: 40 per cent (up 6)
    Liberals: 40 per cent (down 1)
  2. NDP: 13 per cent (down 2)
  3. Green Party: 7 per cent (down 3)

The fine print:

Interviews were conducted March 20 and 21. The Strategic Counsel surveyed 1,000 Canadians and believes the results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20. There is a higher margin of error for regional results. For example, the Quebec survey is accurate to within 6.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

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NDP distances itself from Blogging Dipper leader

Who says the blogosophere doesn’t matter?

The president of the NDP, Anne McGrath, wrote a letter today to the president of the Canadian Jewish Congress in which the NDP disavowed any connection to blogger Robert McClelland, a frequent commenter at this blog and one of the organizers of the Blogging Dippers.

At his blog, McClelland had posted an excerpt of a comment by the Rev. Ted Pike. Pike is the director of the Oregon-based Christian evangelical group National Prayer Network and describes himself at that organization’s Web site as “ an outspoken critic of [the Anti-Defamation League’]s evil Jewish leadership.” The excerpt, posted at the end of last week, carried the title “Religious Reich Whingers” and was published without comment from McClelland.

But then, on Sunday afternoon, in the comments to that post, McClelland said he would not not even “muster up a ‘what a shame’” if Jews were persecuted by the state.

This is the comment that sparked McGrath to write her letter; sparked McClelland’s co-blogger to quit the partnership; and sparked Stephane Dion’s chief blogger to accuse McClelland of spewing hatred online (and call for his resignation as head of the Blogging Dippers). Lefty blogger Jean-Francois of Sackville, NB calls on other bloggers who back the NDP to come up with a joint statement about McClelland. The Progressive Bloggers collective wasted little time in voting McClelland off their island. To which McClelland says … well, check it out [see the comments section here] for yourself.

 

 

 

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