Liberals lose a Quebec candidate

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff will begin the country's 41st general election campaign and his first campaign as a party leader in Ottawa with rally. He'll then head to Montreal and be there overnight Saturday. As Ignatieff heads to the province of Quebec, he'll be greeted by the news that his candidate in the riding of Quebec, currently held by Bloc Quebecois MP Christiane Gagnon, has packed it in on the very day the Harper government fell:

Coup de théâtre dans la circonscription de Québec où Anne Gagné, candidate libérale désignée depuis le 14 décembre 2009, a jeté l’éponge avant même le déclenchement officiel du scrutin fédéral.

La nouvelle, tombée hier matin, est d’autant plus surprenante que Mme Gagné fut omniprésente au cours de différents événements publics des 15 derniers mois. Elle y affichait systématiquement son goût d’en découdre électoralement, le plus rapidement possible, avec la députée bloquiste sortante Christiane Gagnon, élue à Québec depuis 1993.

[Read the rest of the story]

Memo to Liberals: You're three years too late on the corporate tax cut vote

If we are to trust Prime Minister Stephen Harper's powers of observation — and Hansard's ability to record those observations — just a handful of Liberal MPs stood in their places in the House of Commons on Dec. 13, 2007 and voted against the very corporate tax cuts that now, more than three years later, are dominating pre-budget politicking.

Minutes ahead of the final vote on Bill C-28, the Budget and Economic Statement Implementation Bill of 2007, the Liberal whip Karen Redman (who would lose her seat in Kitchener, Ont. to Conservative Stephen Woodworth) pleaded to the Speaker that Robert Thibeault, the Liberal MP from West Nova (who would lose his seat to Conservative Greg Kerr) be allowed to vote on the bill even though he had arrived at the House after the doors had been closed and all entry barred for the vote.[1] Her request was rejected but not before Harper rose to say: “Mr. Speaker, since the Liberal whip indicated that the member for West Nova was delayed, I wonder how much further delayed the other 100 members are? How far away are they?”

They were, as it turns out, very far away because, had they shown up, they would have likely been forced to vote with the Bloc Quebecois and NDP agains this bill and that would have forced a general election.

I was compelled to research the circumstances of the passing of Bill C-28 as this is the bill that contains the corporate tax cuts that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and his caucus now vow to vote against. There's just one problem, of course: They are three years late for that vote.

While Jack Layton and his NDP caucus and Gilles Duceppe and his BQ caucus are counted in Hansard as voting against the corporate tax cuts now coming into effect, then Liberal Leader Stephane Dion and the future leader Ignatieff did not vote either way on the issue. Just six Liberals voted against the corporate tax cuts and all of them were, like the late Thibeault, from Atlantic Canada (They would be Brison, Cuzner, Eyking, Regan, Savage and Russell). This, you may recall, was the budget that contained the so-called Atlantic Accord, which changed some of the equalization terms for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador and which turned out to be a controversial enough notion that Danny Williams organized his successful ABC or Anybody But Conservative campaign for the 2008 election and which prompted Nova Scotia Conservative Bill Casey to finish his parliamentary career as an independent MP.

But because of that 2007 vote, corporate taxes on New Year's Day this year dropped to 16.5 per cent and will drop to 15 per cent on New Year's Day 2012. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty need not mention a word about corporate tax cuts in this year's budget and those tax cuts are coming next year.

The 2011 budget implementation bill, then, may very well be completely silent on the issue of corporate tax cuts.

And that gives both the Bloc and the NDP the perfect fig leaf to vote in favour of Flaherty's 2011 budget should they see enough in it to satisfy their own supporters. Say, for example, Flaherty provides some relief on taxes for home heating oil or commits to boosting CPP and OAS payments. Then, Layton is perfectly free to say his party is voting for measures important to NDP supporters and, in any event, Layton and other NDP MPs already stood up and voted against those horrible corporate tax cuts. Even better for Layton, he'll stand up and say that when he voted against corporate tax cuts three years ago, the Liberals didn't even bother to show up for work that day.

Meanwhile, if Liberals are serious about suspending the corporate tax cuts they say we cannot now afford, they would have to defeat the government, win the subsequent election by campaigning, at least in part, that they would immediately introduce legislation suspending next year's cuts. If they wanted to do more than that, and reverse this year's cuts, then they would, of course, be campaigning to raise corporate taxes. (Probably a politically popular move if the Liberals are appealing to their left-leaning voters but not so much for those leaning right who then could be pushed to vote Conservative).

[1] The procedural rules for the House of Commons include the following instructions for “Recorded Votes”: “When Members have been called in for a division, no further debate is permitted. From the time the Speaker begins to put the question until the results of the vote are announced, Members are not to enter, leave or cross the House, or make any noise or disturbance. Members must be in their assigned seat in the Chamber and have heard the motion read in order for their votes to be recorded. Any Member entering the Chamber while the question is being put or after it has been put cannot have his or her vote counted. Members must remain seated until the result is announced by the Speaker.”

Aerospace industry slams Liberal attack ads

The Liberal Party of Canada, earlier today, released the 15-second ad (above) which it says will air across the country. By the end of the day, the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada and Aéro Montréal had joined the Conservatives in denouncing the ads.

The tone of the release from the AIAC ( IAC comments on Official Opposition's fundamental lack of understanding of the importance of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program to the Canadian Aerospace industry ) was pretty dismissive. Key quote:

The Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC) today deplored a fundamental lack of understanding of the strategic importance of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program to the Canadian Aerospace Industry as demonstrated in television ads posted on the Web this morning.

“The Government of Canada has participated in the JSF initiative for almost 15 years and an acquisition decision to acquire 65 aircraft to replace our aging CF-18 fleet was finally made earlier this year.  Moreover, many of our members are now pursuing JSF contract opportunities with the determination and confidence that defines our industry,” said Dr. Claude Lajeunesse, CEO of the AIAC.  “And the doubt and dithering signals that internal political debates send to the world will only result in the loss of opportunities and much needed high-skill, high-value added and long-term jobs for Canadians from coast to coast.”

The release from Aéro Montréal, which represents aerospace industries in the Montreal region, is less partisan and seems less interested in picking a fight with Liberals. Still, it didn't seem too pleased with the ad. Read the whole thing here: Ottawa Official Opposition's new television ads – Aéro Montréal reiterates the importance of the acquisition of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Jets for the aerospace industry but here's what amounts to the juiciest quote:

“To maximize the benefits of this decision for the industry, we need a stable environment. That's why Aéro Montréal supports the federal government's decision to proceed with the purchase of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jets. By working together, we can protect and create thousands of high-quality and well paid jobs that will be available for future generations. “

In the meantime, former diplomat Mark Collins has an interesting comment on some of the troubles the F-35 program is getting into in the U.S.

 

 

 

 

Liberal Express 2 hits the road; Tories and NDP ain't impressed

Adam Goldenberg, a Vancouverite who is Michael Ignatieff's speechwriter, blogs about the launch of Liberal leader's 20/11 tour:

After kicking things off on Parliament Hill — in Scott Bradley’s riding of Ottawa Centre — Michael Ignatieff will head to the Carlingwood Family Restaurant for a rally with the next Member of Parliament for Ottawa West–Nepean, Anita Vandenbeld.

The riding of Ottawa Centre is, for the moment, represented by the NDP. Ottawa West–Nepean, meanwhile, is the temporary stomping ground of Stephen Harper’s salvo-swatting, spittle-spewing spokesman, John “You Won’t Like Me When I’m Angry. Which Is Always” Baird. Liberals were within spitting distance of winning both ridings in the last election, and we’ve got exceptional, hard-working candidates in Scott and Anita. Ottawa will be Grit after the next writ. Just watch us.

At today’s press conference, you can expect Michael Ignatieff to point out that it has been five years since Stephen Harper and his Conservatives took power. Throughout the 20/11 tour, we’ll be asking Canadians a simple question: Are we better off than we were five years ago? (Don’t take it from me, but Michael Ignatieff might just have an answer to that question.)

Later today, Michael Ignatieff will head west to Vancouver, home of the number one team in the NHL.  From there, he’ll fly to Winnipeg, then Ontario, then Atlantic Canada, then Québec, before returning to Ottawa with the entire Liberal team in tow for a landmark National Caucus meeting.

It’s a whirlwind tour at a whirlwind time in Canadian politics, and we’ll have all the action right here on www.liberal.ca.

Let’s get this Party started, shall we?

Right on cue, the Conservative Alert-Info-Alert bot leapt into action. The memo sent out to all Conservative MPs and Senators reads:

Ignatieff launches pre-election tour

In the clearest indication yet that he has his sights set on forcing a needless election that will distract our national efforts from creating jobs and sustaining our fragile economic recovery, Michael Ignatieff—fully rested after a three week vacation—started his New Year by launching a national political tour. The message of this tour according to an unnamed strategist is that “you have to vote Liberal” and targets ridings he believes he can pick up from other parties (Canadian Press, January 9, 2011).

It’s no surprise that Ignatieff’s focus for 2011 is on an election. Clearly trying to lay the public relations ground-work, he admitted as much in his year end interviews before Christmas:  “We are ready for an election, and we think Canadians are ready for an election.” (Canadian Press, December 16, 2010).

We, again, restate our commitment to not provoke an election that is unnecessary at this time.  With economic recovery in sight, the last thing we need is the disruption of a needless election or the uncertainty reckless Coalition.

As Ignatieff travels Canada calling for an unnecessary election our Government will keep its focus on jobs and growth as we work towards a budget that will keep our fragile economic recovery on track while bringing the budget back to balance by 2015/2016.

Meanwhile, NDP wags are dismissing the 11-day tour as “Mission Impossible 2011.”

 

Michael Ignatieff: The QMI Interview

Reversal.jpg

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff conducted a round of year-end interviews with various media organizations at the end of last week. Today, we run a feature across our chain (left) based on our interview with him. Here's an edited version (by me) of the transcript  of that interview, which took place in Stornoway, his official Ottawa residence, on Dec. 16. (I have paraphrased my questions)

Q: Has the country shifted? Is Liberalism dead?

“I don’t think so. The key enduring fact is that broad base of the Canadian middle class, the middle class family, depends as much as it ever did for its standard of living on health service you can rely on, public pensions, public help for post-secondary education and child care. Liberalism has always understood that. The engine room of the Canadian economy, the engine room of this society depends on having what you’d call public goods. Health care, pensions, education. And that’s as relevant as ever.

That broad base of the middle class has to be reassured that government can deliver that kind of granite under their feet without crushing them with taxes. When they feel that they’re paying more and getting less in terms of just grinding – when that granite under their feet feels like it’s cracking and when it feels like it’s costing more and they’re getting less, then you get Rob Ford. You get a movement …

Liberals have always understood – the reason the Liberal Party’s been so successful politically, is we’ve understood, that’s what we’re in politics to do, to create that ground under people’s feet and to do it in a way that doesn’t crush people with high taxes. And that’s been the bargain and that’s why we were the governing party for so long. You look across the western world, that’s what keeps liberal kinds of parties in business, that basic thing.

And we just have to do a really good job telling Canadians that’s what we’re here to do. And I think it’s true that sometimes we’ve strayed from message. I think sometimes we’ve chased after other priorities. I think sometimes we’ve allowed ourselves to be driven by other people’s ideologies but if you come right back to the wheelhouse where we are, it’s we’re the party of the broad-based middle-class family. And for me, this is not decline.jpgan abstraction. I’ve fought two elections in a place called Etobicoke. And that middle class family I know well. They voted for me twice. They live in three-bedroom brick bungalows built in the sixties and seventies. They’ve got a car in the garage but they don’t have three. They want to send their kids to post-secondary (school). They want to be sure they’ve got a retirement they can count on. That’s the engine room not only of our party but also of the Canadian economy. We just have to say to them over and over again: We know what you’re going through and we’re with you the whole way and they don’t want big government, they don’t want fancy government, they don’t want expensive government, they don’t want wasteful government but their standard of living absolutely depends on healthcare, pensions .. and we have to deliver for them.

And I think the weakness for the Conservatives, their message … The thing about the Conservative Party is its fundamentally a message of protest. It fundamentally says let’s get government off your back and cut your taxes. And it’s credible only so long as government doesn’t deliver up to the promise. But if you have government that delivers responsible moderate down-the-middle  of the pike programs that create that granite under people’s feet, then the protest just looks kind of cranky, right? Harper loves power but he doesn’t like government. Harper doesn’t believe what I believe. Harper doesn’t believe that the ground of that middle class standard of living is those public goods. Basically what he’s said to the Canadian public for four years is: ‘government can’t do very much for you. All we can do is cut your taxes and that’s it.’ And we’re saying, no, no, there is a better choice. We can deliver those services in a responsible way without increasing your tax burden. We can do it.

He’s the guy with the $56 billion deficit, not us. Mulroney was the guy with the $43 billion deficit, not us. So we don’t have to walk around proving to the middle class we can do this. We’ve proved it twice. And we will prove it again.

I then followed up on his reference to Rob Ford, the new mayor of Toronot. Don't have the full transcription handy. But you can read the story I wrote based on this section of the interview or you can listen to the tape. [MP3]

Q: What about the West? Does Naheed Nenshi’s victory there suggest that small-l liberalism at least might be taking root?

“I think medium-term – I won’t pretend short-term – Western Canada is looking a lot like places where the Liberal Party has traditionally brought on huge amounts of support. Everybody can see it. I can see it Edmonton. I can see it Calgary. Hey, we just won a seat west of [Lake] Superior so I’m feeling … well, one swallow doesn’t make a spring, … but we’ve made some progress. And anyone who goes to Edmonton right now knows that there is a very proud municipal community that is steaming mad at the Harper government because Rona Ambrose and the Conseratives took them for granted, green-lighted an Expo bid and then cut ‘em off at the pass. And you can only get away with that kind of nonsense if you think own the whole board, if you don’t care what they think.

So what’s the net of that? I think there are possibilities for us in Western Canada but I’m not in dreamland. We’ve got a lot of work to do.

These messages out West are important. We want to say, you deserve better than this. You deserve someone who doesn’t take you for granted. I’ve said to this party since I became leader, I don’t believe in a red state/blue state kind of thing and we’ve gotta get out there [though] it’ll take a while.

Q. What about Quebec?

“I think what we have to say is really simple: We have to say, you Quebecers are fed up with Stephen Harper. This government does not respond to your values. This government does not understand you. If you want to get rid of Stephen Harper, you’ve got to vote for the Liberals. If you vote Duceppe, you will get Harper. If you vote Layton, you will get Harper. If you vote Elizabeth May, you will get Harper. The target is not actually the Bloc, the target is actually Stephen Harper. Stephen Harper is unpopular in Quebec. Stephen Harper’s gamble in Quebec has not succeeded. But if you keep voting for Gilles Duceppe you will get four more years of a government that doesn’t understand you. You’ve now got a chance to vote to get a federal government in Ottawa that respects a women’s right to choose; must preserve the gun registry; wants to preserve the long-form census; actually believes in regional economic development; actually believes in action on climate change with the provinces. You line it up, we’re in the right place. Christ knows we’ve got a lot of work to do. But I do know that’s what you want to say. And I want to see, finally, if you’re out on the ground in Quebec, in small towns, municipal officials come up to you on the quiet all the time and say, we’ve voted for those guys for 18 years. What the hell did they do for my community? If I’ve heard that once I’ve heard it a hundred times. Well, sooner or later, that begins to translate into votes.

Q: In 2009 “Mr. Harper, your time is up” was a mistake. 2010 seemed relatively gaffe-free. Was there anything you regret?

You don’t go through a day without making a mistake. It’s not the mistakes that you make, it’s recoveries you make that really count in this game. I actually don’t think there’s some glaring error that I went through this year.

I think we can truthfully say there wasn’t a poltical party in this country that worked harder than we did in 2010. I just really think – when you look at the prorogation rallies, the Montreal conference, the summer tour, Open Mikes, enormous amount of policy work – which is all below the water line but you will see in the new year – I feel very good about that. It’s the ensemble of just a lot of hard work. I think we maintained the unity of the party and the unity of caucus and that, in the Liberal Party, is …[smiles]. So there’s a lot.

Q. What's the secret to caucus unity and discipline?

They want to win. It’s just that simple. The key thing is what’s in them. And they want to win. They don’t like being in opposition. We’re a party that’s governed the country. We’re not like the Bloc or the NDP who think this is dying and going to heaven. We think this is purgatory and we want to get back to the business of governing the country and we know the only way we can do that is if we’re united.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prelude to an election? Tories launch attack ads over so-called iPod tax

The federal Conservative Party of Canada this afternoon said it will soon pay to air a series of radio ads in which it attacks the opposition “coalition” for what the Tories say is their support for an “iPod Tax” of up to $75.

Some in Ottawa have suggested that when the Conservative Party, which has more money than it can likely spend during an election campaign, starts to burn off a bit of the cash overflowing in its vaults with some pre-writ attack advertising, we may take that as part of the 'softening up' bombast that could very likely come just before some kind of election call. Now, I do not detect a hint of prevarication among Tories when they tell me they are not planning to engineer their own defeat in the new year. You, dear reader, are certainly entitled to call me naive and/or you simply may not trust anything a Conservative tells you. Fair enough. But this ad could also be a pre-emptive strike from the Tories in case any opposition parties were getting any funny ideas.

And, in any event, as I mentioned, the Tories have tons of cash to burn so what the heck …

But if there is to be some pre-election posturing, I think it a fair role for reporters to play a “reality check” role on the propaganda that is likely to come out from all quarters and so, in that spirit, let me note the following:

  • The Tories say evidence of an opposition coalition can be found in a motion passed by the House of Commons Heritage Committee to explore the idea of levy on iPods and MP3 players. True enough: All Liberal, Bloc, and NDP members voted in favour of that but so did the Conservative MP who chairs the committee: Gary Schellenberger, your coalition membership card is in the mail! [Read more about that vote, with the link to the minutes of the meeting where the vote was held here]
  • By coincidence, on the same day the Tories released the iPod tax attack ad,  the Liberal Party of Canada released its official response to C-32, the copyright bill that would contain any new fees consumers would pay to artists. In a release outlining its response, Liberal MP Marc Garneau is, it seems to me, unequivocal about the so called iPod tax: “The Liberal Party does not support the iPod levy.  It is not sustainable in a world of changing technology, and is unpopular with consumers. Canadians are already using multipurpose media devices to listen to music, like Blackberries, iPhones, iPads and computer livestreaming, on which the levy would not apply.”

Caucus discipline: Blue team has it, red team doesn't

Let me set up this blog post with a tweet earlier this evening from Rob Silver, a Liberal pundit and commentator who was a key player on Gerard Kennedy's leadership team:

Lib MPs who leaked caucus news today were (a) trying to hurt MI; (b) hurt their fellow MPs (c) sound cool to Taber; or (d) all of the above?

When I came to Ottawa in 2005 and got assigned to cover the Conservative caucus I was disappointed to discover that, despite my best efforts, I wasn't going to crack their caucus confidentiality. Five years later, I still can't. I ain't the only one. I've heard the same thing from lots of other press gallery colleagues. While there's certainly the occasional exception, the Conservatives (who are required to turn their BlackBerry in at the door before the weekly Wednesday caucus meeting) have been remarkably disciplined when it comes to caucus confidentiality.

My friend John Ivison, whose sources on the blue team are nearly unmatched in the press gallery, had a neat piece this week in the National Post about life inside the Conservative caucus, discovering that Ontario MP Larry Miller is a frequent and respected intervenor inside Conservative caucus meetings. But despite Ivison's connections, he was only able to discover that Miller is a respected caucus voice but no one will say just what it is that Miller or anyone else actually says in those meetings. And we only rarely get a whiff of any dissenting voice. (An alert Daniel Proussalidis of NewsTalk 1010 used a fire alarm in the middle of today's caucus meeting to get one of those whiffs)

The Conservative caucus meets in one of the large committee rooms in Parliament Hill's centre block. Across the Hall of Honour, in another committee room, the Liberal caucus meets at the same time. The Liberals, like the Tories, hold these meetings behind closed doors but, in the five years I've been here, they might has well do it live on CPAC. Liberal MPs keep their BlackBerrys on them and have as much live-blogged the “secret” proceedings to journalists who wait outside. Liberal leaders in the past have asked/ordered/begged for some caucus confidentiality — and Michael Ignatieff did so again today —  but it just doesn't appear to be in a Liberal MP's DNA.

And so it was today. Some Liberal MPs are upset with the fact that their party is essentially supporting the government's decision to commit to a three-year training mission in Afghanistan. Some Liberal MPs want the troops home. Upset that their party is not doing what they want, they grabbed the first reporter they saw at the conclusion of this morning's “secret”  Liberal caucus meeting and spilled the beans. This isn't a new thing, though. It happens all the time. The Liberals are famous among press gallery reporters for being perfectly happy to air their laundry — dirty or clean — in public.

Liberal MPs found The Globe's Jane Taber who writes this tremendously ironic sentence before reporting on the Liberal dis-unity: “Behind the closed doors of the party meeting, the Liberal Leader asked MPs not to talk to the media about their concerns.” Others spoke to Ivison who is able, through the disgruntled Liberal that spilled the beans to him, actually name names of the dissenters who thought they were speaking to a group who would respect their confidentiality. The Canadian Press has a similar accounting of the “secret” goings-on. Like I said: Might as well put the meeting on CPAC.

 

Bob Rae: Every other Canadian PM had no problem with secret ballots

In his first public comments after he became the first prime minister in Canadian history to lose a bid to win a seat on the United Nations Security Council, Prime Minister Stephen Harper had this to say:

Our engagement internationally is based on the principles that this country holds dear; it is not based on popularity.  We take our positions based on the promotion of our values, freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law, justice, development, human…humanitarian assistance for those who need it.  Those are the things we’re pursuing.  That does not change, regardless of what the outcome of secret votes is.

Canada, according to Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon, had commitments, in writing or verbally, from 150 of the 192 countries at the United Nations that they would vote for Canada. Close to 40 broke their word as Canada never got more than 114 ballots in two rounds of secret balloting. And its the secrecy of those votes — ambassadors, presumably, could ignore directions from their own governments and vote however they pleased — that the Conservatives have seized on after losing the vote.

Bob Rae, the Liberal MP and his party's foreign affairs critic, has now seized on the secrecy:

I know very well that the kind of ballot that Mr. Harper would prefer would be somebody whispering their choice in his ear.  But that isn’t going to happen.  We have secret ballots.  We’ve had secret ballots at the UN since 1945.  Mr. St. Laurent managed to win it.  Mr. Diefenbaker managed to win it.  Mr. Trudeau managed to win it.  Mr. Mulroney managed to win it.  Mr. Chrétien managed to win it.  And Mr. Harper didn’t. And he can’t – all of his defences in the world can’t get around it.

Then the final defence is what I call the Groucho Marx defence. The Groucho Marx defence is “If that clubs wants me as a member – it doesn’t want me as a member, I wouldn’t want to be a member of it anyway.”  So it’s just – we’re getting to a ludicrous point.  Let’s just deal with the facts.  We lost the vote because Canada’s voice was not heard in the right ways at the right time, because Canada’s presence was not felt in the right way at the right time.  That’s why we lost the vote and Canadians I don’t think are happy about that but there’s no point in underestimating the importance of what happened

 

Liberals inherit their politics; Conservatives and New Democrats rationalize their partisanship

Cameron Anderson and Laura Stephenson, associate professors in the political science faculty at the University of Western Ontario, wondered about the concept of “partisanship” in Canadian politics and what that might mean for voting behaviour.

By partisanship, the professors mean the concept of an individual being attached to or having some sort of affective bond to a particular party. How strong is that bond? What are the factors that influence the bonding and, by extension, the unbonding, if you will, of that relationship? And are there some differences between Conservatives, Liberals, and New Democrats when it comes to the partisan attachment its supporters have?

The answer, in a paper they presented over the summer at the annual conference of the Canadian Political Science Association, is that yes: The research seems to indicate that Liberals come to be Liberals by a different route than New Democrats and Conservatives come to their party affiliation.

For example: If you're a Liberal partisan, the odds are pretty good that at least one of your parents was a Liberal. Anderson and Stephenson find that 55 per cent of those who identify themselves as a Liberal partisan have a parent who is a Liberal but just 38 per cent of Conservatives can say the same thing and 23 per cent of New Democrats get their NDP orange from their parents.

And while more Liberals inherit their fondness for that party, Conservatives and New Democrats appear to have rationalized their way to their particular political brand. The researchers say that 90 per cent of Conservatives come to identify themselves as Conservative because they “held positive issue tallies” with the party. What they mean by “issue tallies” is that partisan keeps a kind of running scorecard about his or her partisan attachment and whenever new information about relationship surfaces it reinforces that partisan attachment or weakens it. In other words, I suppose, Conservatives and NDP partisans are constantly matching up their political bent to the latest political information they have and constantly questioning their partisan attachment. Kind of sheds a new light on how and why parties on the right in Alberta, for example, and a few times in Canadian federal history exhibit a pattern whereby splinter parties will pop up and often eat the mainstream right-wing party. (Alberta PCs, say hello to Wild Rose!)

New Democrats have a similar “cognitive influence” approach to their brand with 80 per cent, according to the researchers, arriving at the New Democrat outlook on life by thinking about it rather than inheriting it.

Just 62 per cent of Liberal partisans are Liberal partisans because they thought themselves into that position.

Now, I am probably overgeneralizing the findings of Anderson and Stephenson. It's a little more nuanced than all that. They conclude, for instance, that there are number of sociodemographic factors that are very strong for each party that influence partisanship. If you're a Protestant, for example, you're more likely to be a Conservative. The researchers find that if you're a Catholic and/or an immigrant, you are [still] likely to be a Liberal.

Moreover, the authors make quite an effort to point out that parental partisanship, sociodemographic factors, and cognitive influence should not be given equal weight as factors when it comes to determining partisanship. In fact, as they say, the “cognitive influence” may be, the researchers conclude, the most significant factor that influences how partisans come to choose their party and it is also the most significant factor influencing the “intensity” of partisan's attachment to his or her party.

And, in one interesting datapoint in their paper, the researchers find that the loyalty of Liberal and NDP partisans tend to be influenced more by the party leader than do Conservative partisans.

Summing up then:

Liberal partisans share parental partisanship in great numbers, but even those partisans are not affected by parental partisanship when it comes to intensity and vote loyalty. Sociodemographic influences tend to be more significant for the Liberal and PC parties but not the NDP. This suggests an interesting divide among the parties, but also indicates that the effect of socialization on Canadians partisans is relatively weak.

Still: All of this is kind of fun stuff as we think about how any party might grow its base by stealing support from another party. We might extrapolate from these findings that:

1. So long as Liberals continue to reproduce, it stands to reason they will produce a lot of Liberals in future generations.

2. If only Liberals would think about it for a minute, they might not be Liberals.

3. The political leanings of a Conservative and New Democrat can be affected by an appeal to reason.  Presumably, if any party can figure out how to make a rational appeal to Tory or NDP partisans, there are votes to be had.

In new video, Ignatieff, "the small businessperson" pitches for his kind of Canada

The Liberal Party has just released a new video (below) featuring leader Michael Ignatieff, talking about himself, his relationship to his wife Zsuzsanna Zsohar, his parents, and his broad vision of what a federal government ought to do. There's the odd gentle barb, as well, about Stephen Harper and Jack Layton.

Some quick quotes from the 3:23-long English-language version:

“I've been a war correspondent .. I've lived the life almost like a small businessperson — living paycheque to paycheque. I'm proud that I've made it work.”

“[Zsohar] understands why I'm doing this. We're doing this together.”

“I'm not a career politician. Mr. Harper's done nothing else. Jack Layton has been a career politician all his life.”

As he travels on board the Liberal Express bus that visited nearly 150 communities over the summer, he says, “It's a great relief to be out of Ottawa. Journalists feed on politicians. Politicians feed on journalists and they send out the same cynical message that it's a game, that it's a close game and you don't get to play. The Canadian people want in.”

“If you're looking for a career standard politician, don't come to me. Come to the other guy.”