Alright, last chance for cabinet predictions …

OK, reading what I already wrote,

OTTAWA – Prime Minister Stephen Harper will appoint “new members of the Ministerial team” Wednesday morning, in a widely expected fine-tuning of his cabinet triggered by the resignation last month of former Foreign Affairs minister Maxime Bernier.

The new ministers will be sworn in at Rideau Hall, the official residence of the Governor General, at 11 a.m.

Christian Paradis, a rookie MP from Quebec who is the Secretary of State for Agriculture, is the likely candidate to get the job of International Trade minister, leaving the incumbent, David Emerson, free to focus on the Foreign Affairs portfolio, a job handed to him on an interim basis in the wake of Bernier's resignation…

and then reading what my friends and Campbell and Gloria wrote

OTTAWA — Stephen Harper will place the recently troubled portfolio of Foreign Affairs in the safe hands of David Emerson, the Trade Minister who has been doing double-duty for a month, when he shuffles his cabinet Wednesday, sources say.

Conservative sources said the mini-shuffle will probably move only three or four ministers and revolve around filling the gap left on May 26 when Maxime Bernier was forced out as foreign affairs minister for leaving classified documents at the home of an ex-girlfriend with past biker ties.

But some movement is expected in the ranks of Quebec ministers as Mr. Harper seeks to maintain the province's weight at the cabinet table …

I'd now like to slightly modify my guess — and it surely is a guess for I haven't made any extra calls on this one, it being the hour when most normal folk here in Ottawa are asleep …

As I'd mentioned, briefing books are/were being prepared at HRDC, home to Ministers Solberg, Blackburn, and LeBreton. Campbell and Gloria talk about Quebec ministers being in play and they mention Sen. Michael Fortier.

That's got a good ring to it and could happen. But let me float another possibility involving Quebec ministers: Josée Verner to International Trade; Jean Pierre Blackburn to Heritage; Christian Paradis to Labour. That could work…

And now to bed …

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On the eve of a cabinet shuffle

A PMO source says Prime Minister Harper will halve David Emerson's workload — he is both Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of International Trade (as well as carrying the regional portfolios of the 2010 Olympics and Pacific Gateway) — before Canada Day. That's next Tuesday.

Harper was in Québec today but he is back in Ottawa Wednesday. So we're on what passes for high alert here in an Ottawa that largely emptied itself of its federal politicians last week.

And on that note, if you haven't had the chance to read Barry Campbell's series in The Walrus, I recommend it. In the third and final installment in that magazine's June issue, he has this MP's-eye view of the rumour and speculation the press here have been involved in recently on this issue:

It’s not clear which is psychologically worse: getting bounced from Cabinet or being passed over for a position. Not being considered one of the stars is deeply embarrassing and hard to explain to family, friends, and supporters. Grown men and women, accomplished and respected in their fields before coming to Ottawa, are reduced to nervous, insecure children when the rumours start flying about a Cabinet shuffle. I got passed over, and I’m not sure I could have swallowed additional humiliations . . .

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Your new British Columbia cabinet

Here in Ottawa, we have our own cabinet shuffle rumours. I'm on the record that it will be a shuffle of precisely one: Rookie MP Christian Paradis to get a big bump up to International Trade before the end of the week. Others here in Ottawa tell me that briefing books have been prepared over in Human Resources. That's Monte Solberg's department. If he's moving, that's a big shuffle and I'd tend to believe what the PM said last week about big shuffles.

But enough about Ottawa. Here's what B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell did today:

New ministers appointed today include:

* Minister of State for Intergovernmental Relations – Hon. Joan McIntyre

* Minister of Community Development – Hon. Blair Lekstrom

* Minister of Healthy Living and Sport – Hon. Mary Polak

* Minister of Labour and Citizens' Services – Hon. Iain Black

* Minister of Tourism, Culture and the Arts – Hon. Bill Bennett

Ministers with new portfolios include:

* Minister of Agriculture and Lands – Hon. Stan Hagen

* Minister of State for Mining – Hon. Gordon Hogg

* Minister of Finance and Minister Responsible for the Olympics – Hon.

Colin Hansen

* Minister of Forests and Range – Hon. Pat Bell

* Minister of Housing and Social Development – Hon. Rich Coleman

* Minister of Small Business and Revenue and Minister Responsible for

Deregulation – Hon. Kevin Krueger

* Minister of Technology, Trade and Economic Development and Minister

Responsible for the Asia-Pacific Initiative – Hon. Ida Chong

Ministers retaining existing portfolios:

* Minister of Aboriginal Relations and Reconciliation – Hon. Michael de

Jong

* Minister of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development – Hon.

Murray Coell

* Attorney General and Minister Responsible for Multiculturalism – Hon.

Wally Oppal

* Minister of Children and Family Development – Hon. Tom Christensen

* Minister of State for Childcare – Hon. Linda Reid

* Minister of Education and Minister Responsible for Early Learning and

Literacy and Deputy Premier – Hon. Shirley Bond

* Minister of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources – Hon. Richard

Neufeld

* Minister of Environment – Hon. Barry Penner

* Minister of Health Services – Hon. George Abbott

* Minister of Public Safety and Solicitor General – Hon. John van Dongen

* Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure – Hon. Kevin Falcon

Any and all gossip, inuendo, rumour and gospel truth about any and all gratefully welcomed 🙂

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Coming soon to a bookstore (but not to the Public Safety Committee…)

Publishing houses McLelland and Stewart and Les Editions de L'Homme announced today that they will be bringing us Julie Couillard's autobiography. Les Edition de L'Homme is the publishing house owned by Quebecor Inc., which also owns the television network TVA where Couillard first spilled the beans about her relationship with Maxime Bernier. No word on when, but presumably we'll see it in time for the fall publishing season and, possibly, just in time for a fall federal election:

MONTREAL, June 20 /CNW/ – The autobiography of Julie Couillard will be published this fall by Canada's largest independent English-language publishing house, McClelland & Stewart, and the largest publishing house in Quebec, Les Editions de l'Homme. Her book will recount a unique life from her modest beginnings in a working-class neighbourhood of Montreal to her spectacular emergence on the national scene last May.

From her childhood experiences to her meeting with the President of the United States at the side of Canada's chief diplomat, and the tragic death of her companion in the infamous biker gang wars in the mid 1990s, Julie Couillard will reveal the details of a life marked by both tragedy and exhilaration.

How to ask a Prime Minister a question

Prime Minister Harper's press conference in Huntsville, Ont. today was broadcast live on two networks and so a friend in Ottawa heard me ask the PM this:

AKIN: Good afternoon, Prime Minister. I'll try and squeeze a two parter in here if I could.

PM: Sure.

AKIN: It being the end of the political season in Ottawa, I wonder if you'd care to comment on or reflect upon the goals you set out in the Throne Speech eight or nine months ago, highlights/lowlights of the season and, the second part would be [about] the position of foreign affairs and international trade. I know this is something you have to deal with. Are ministers free to travel this weekend? Will you be dealing with that particular item very soon?

Upon hearing that, the friend sent me a note on my BlackBerry: “Saw your Q to the PM today. Quite the lob ball.”

And indeed it was quite the lob ball or soft question but, as I mentioned to him, I was an equal-opportunity slo-pitcher this week, asking representatives or leaders of each of the four parties the same lob-ball question.

But that got me thinking that I don't think readers/viewers know a lot about what goes into a journalist's thinking as we prepare to ask our one question of the Prime Minister. When you get one question — and you drive 700 km round-trip as I did today to ask it — you think pretty carefully about what you want to say.

So I thought I'd write this note to give those who care a bit of the thinking behind these questions. My question today was one that was looking for a more contemplative response. It's not always like that.

If you watched that presser with the PM today, you saw my friend Richard Brennan of The Toronto Star take the debating point approach. After hearing the PM criticize Dion's green shift announcement, he wanted to know how his government was going to respond to the challenge of getting consumers to reduce their carbon footprint. In other words, he was saying, “OK, fella, it's all very well to run down the other guy's plan, but you're the prime minister! What are you doing about the problem?”

Reporters don't get lots of opportunities to ask this Prime Minister questions. Come to think of it: I've probably had a half-dozen in the last year and that's probably a pretty high number for the 300 or so Parliamentary Press Gallery members. We don't get much chance individually or as a group. Probably the last time a group of reporters put questions to him was three weeks in ago in Paris — and then we, as a group of reporters, were only allowed four questions. So, as I wanted to canvas all the party leaders about their impressions of the Parliamentary session that was wrapping up, I was going to have to travel if I wanted to get Harper. (He's in Saskatoon tomorrow, but that's too long a drive!) Also: When Harper is doing press conferences within Canada but outside of Ottawa, his handlers tend to let everyone get a question in. When it's just the Parliamentary Press Gallery — in Ottawa or on a foreign trip — things are a little more tightly controlled and not everyone who wants to ask him something is going to get that chance.

So I get to Huntsville and, as usual, Harper's deputy press secretary Dimitri Soudas starts compiling his list of reporters so he can moderate the press conference. He tells us everyone there is going to get a question but just one. Dimitri puts me on the list but I ask him to come to me last. The reason there is: When I'd left our bureau in Ottawa that morning, I knew that the big story of the day, of course, was going to be Dion's Green Shift announcement and we would definitely need Harper's reaction to that. There were other 'news-of-the-day' stories as well that reporters throughout our system would want to hear the prime minister speak to. But the way it works is, you only get one question. So if I was up early in the press conference, I'd probably have to ask about one of those breaking stories. But I was betting, correctly in this case, that other reporters — from the Star, CBC, CTV and elsewhere — also wanted to ask news-of-the-day questions. So with all the bases covered by the time it was my turn, I could use my question to head off in a different direction for a separate story I hope to write. You'll notice, if you look back at my question, I actually squeezed in two questions — my “two-parter” because I knew I could only speak once. Sometimes the PMO folks will let you get away with that so long as you're mighty brief with your second part … [The second part, about the cabinet shuffle, I needed for a story a story that's up online now.]

So that's an important lesson for reporters working in a group question: Use your one question wisely by listening to your colleagues and co-operating with them.

Part of using your question wisely is figuring out how to ask a real smart question. A smart question elicits an answer that moves your subject off the scripted response, that might move the dial on a particular story or that gives you some new or unique insight into your subject's thinking on a particular issue. It could be one of those infamous “gotcha” type questions. “Gotcha” questions are awfully tough to pull off because you're essentially trying to show up your subject and prove you're smarter than they are. More often than not, the 'gotcha' question backfires and the reporter looks like a dope. But smart questions are usually ones that show your subject you know the basics of the file at hand, that we've moved beyond laying out the facts, and now we're ready to go up to the next level, to talk about the hows, the whys, the alternatives. It takes a lot of homework to ask one of those smart questions.

If you can figure out a smart question for Harper, you'll likely be rewarded with a decent answer. Harper is arguably the best politician I've ever seen at handling reporters in a q-and-a session. He's very well briefed; almost never gets flustered and, except for one notable exception in the basement of a Laval motel in the dying days of the 2006 election, doesn't say things he's not supposed to. (Come to think of it, I'd probably say the same thing about Michael Ignatieff — he's pretty sharp in a q-and-a, too. I haven't been in enough scrums yet with Stephane Dion to have formed an opinion of how he handles q-and-a sessions.) Harper got asked once in Ottawa about economic development in Atlantic Canada and started explaining in detail about the difference in economic performance between rural New Brunswick and urban New Brunswick and how that affected the policy response. You learn stuff, usually, when you go to one of these. Reporters who come away from a Harper q-and-a often have two or three more stories than they showed up to ask about. [An aside on this point: Because Harper is so strong handling reporters, it's a bit puzzling why he doesn't get let out more often – once a week? once a fortnight? — to do these things.]

Now I don't want to sound like it's all sweetness-and-light with the PM cuz it isn't. We still have issues. Sometimes you have to track down his motorcade and yell at him as he gets in and out of the car. He usually doesn't respond but, hey, it's my job to ask the questions when and where I can; it's his job to choose to answer or not. And every now and again, it's kinda fun, in a cathartic way, to yell after the prime minister of the country.

Sometimes, on issues he clearly thinks are a waste of time — the Couillard affair, for example — he gets short and just retreats back to the same old lines he uses in the House of Commons. Of course, these issues aren't unique to Harper — there is tension between every politician and the pack of reporters that follow the person around.

In any event, knowing that Harper is well-briefed and tough to surprise, a smart question, in my view, is one that forces him to think on the spot a bit, to move away from the prepared lines and, if you're successful, to get him to open up a bit more about a given issue. I find he responds in interesting ways to questions that challenge his thought processes. The CBC's Keith Boag is good at those kinds of questions — finding a logical inconsistency in a set of assumptions behind a policy response and using that to probe deeper on a given issue. I'm a big fan of questions that begin “Describe … ” or “Can you reflect on …” because their open-ended and the PM or any subject tends to start riffing in unforeseen directions. That's good for learning new things. The aforementioned Brennan is famous for his “let's cut the b.s. and get straight to the chase” kind of questions that will come — loudly — out of nowhere from the back of a scrum that's losing steam. Weird-o questions from left-field sometimes work and here's a good example:

The very first question Harper fielded as the 2006 campaign got underway was from my friend Allan Woods, then writing for Canwest but now for The Toronto Star. Allan had lined up first behind the reporters' microphone in the House of Commons foyer and I was standing right behind him. Allan's first question was: “Mr. Harper: Do you love Canada?” I'm sure I immediately rolled my eyes and thought, what a dumb question. But then I heard Harper's answer and I thought, wow, what a smart question! (Many Conservatives were outraged we'd ask such a question) This question, of course, was one no one had prepped him for and why should they? It's simple enough, right? Wrong. Harper hummed and hawwed and tried to take a rational, cerebral approach to the question. In the end, I don't even know if he said he did love Canada. The Liberals, kicking off their campaign, had great fun with this. Harper had the last laugh, of course, when the campaign ended but I go back to that as a good example of a question that elicits an answer that gets beyond the spin and the highly scripted performances because it showed, in a pretty demonstrative way, that Harper was still having a tough time with the “retail” side of politics, the regular guy stuff that helps a politician connect with voters. The rest of the questions that day, on policy issues, he batted out of the park. (And he finished that particular press conference by laying out the same-sex marriage strategy, a smart strategic move that got that controversial issue out of the way on day one of a long campaign.) I hope Allan gets the first question in the 2009 campaign and asks that one or one like it again!

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Half of America plays digital politics

A new report out from the folks at the Pew Internet Project finds that 46 per cent of Americans have used the Internet or cellphones to do some politicking. The survey of 2,251 Americans also finds that the number going online for political news and information has doubled in this election cycle compared to the 2004 race, from 8 per cent to 17 per cent.

Not surprisingly, the poll found that use of new digital technologies to campaign and to learn about campaigns tends to be greatest among younger voters. Supporters of Obama tend to have higher online profiles than McCain's supporters, the poll says.

Also of note: It seems that American voters seem to like using the Internet to get around media filters. The poll found that 39 per cent of online Americans are using the Internet to get access to original campaign documents or video of speeches and announcements.

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First Dion ad spotted in the wild!

A correspondent writes from Guelph:

I heard one of the anti-Dion ads (slagging the concept of carbon taxes if I recall) on Magic 106 this morning on my drive from Guelph to Kitchener. It would have been about 8:15 a.m. Normally, I listen to CBC1, but Andy Barrie is becoming increasingly self-righteous, so I usually switch to another channel after the 8 o'clock news.

I have no comment on Andy Barrie (here in Ottawa, Kathleen Petty is our drive-time companion in the morning) but my correspondent asks:

Does this mean the PM is about the byelection for Guelph?

And here is my thinking, based on some chats with some of the political players in the region, of why the half-a-million people in the Golden Triangle of Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Cambridge, Ontario likely to hear more, rather than less, political advertising.
First, in Guelph, the Liberal incumbent, Brenda Chamberlain, retired on April 7 so there will be a bye-election there unless a general election comes first. The Conservative Party fired the candidate, Brent Barr, that was selected through a local nomination process in favour of Gloria Kovach, who has been a city councillor for years. The Tories are very high on their chances in Guelph with Kovach.The Liberal candidate is Frank Valeriote. In 'old' Guelph, the name Valeriote carries a lot of cachet in political circles. His dad Mico was an alderman in Guelph for what seemed like forever and held a lot of political influence. There's a big Italian vote in Guelph and Mico would 'deliver' it for Liberal candidates like Frank Maine, who represented Guelph when Pierre Trudeau was Prime Minister. So in Guelph, we've got two pretty good candidates, both with strong connections to the community, and no incumbent running. It's a race the Liberals ought to win but, with the right campaign, the Conservatives could steal it. If the Tories steal one in the Golden Triangle, the best bet is likely in Guelph.
Meanwhile over in Kitchener, Liberals Karen Redman and Andrew Telegdi hold the twin cities and will likely continue to do so in the next general election. Redman is her party's whip.
In the largely rural region surrounding Kitchener, first-time Conservative MP Harold Albrecht will try to defend his Kitchener-Conestogo riding against what will be a concerted Liberal effort to unseat him. Liberals believe unseating Albrecht is their best chance for a steal in this area.
Down in Cambridge, Conservative Gary Goodyear is a decent bet to hold his seat.
Just to his south, though, is the Liberal-held riding of Brant, held by Lloyd St. Amand. I'd say this one is in play and St. Amand will have to work to defend it. Both Stephen Harper and Paul Martin campaigned in Brant in the last general election, a sure sign that both parties think the seat could tip one way or the other.
So with Guelph, Kitchener-Conestogo, and Brant in play, my bet is listeners of the area's radio stations are going to hear a bit more from Ottawa's political parties.

Wheat Board politics: Ritz vs Goodale

The Conservatives want to break up the monopoly the Canadian Wheat Board has when it comes to selling wheat and barley produced on the Prairies. You won't be surprised to hear, this is a controversial proposal and one forms one of the major political cleavages in rural Western Canada.

Last week, Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz (left), an MP and former farmer from Saskatchewan, issued the following press release:

OTTAWA, ONTARIO–(Marketwire – June 5, 2008) – Canadian Wheat Board Chair Larry Hill confirmed that an overwhelming majority of Western Canadian farmers are demanding barley marketing freedom during his appearance before the Senate Agriculture Committee today. David Herle, a long-time Liberal insider and Ralph Goodale advisor, conducted the poll for the CWB.
“This Government is working hard to deliver barley marketing freedom and the CWB's own polling results leave Ralph Goodale and the Liberals with no excuse but partisanship for blocking that freedom,” said the Honourable Gerry Ritz, Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food and Minister for the Canadian Wheat Board.
The CWB's own survey makes it clear Western Canadian farmers want change and Minster Ritz called on Ralph Goodale and the Liberals to listen to Western Canadian farmers by passing Bill C-46.
“Western Canadian farmers have been crystal clear: they want barley marketing freedom by August 1, 2008,” said Minister Ritz. “How can Ralph Goodale and the Liberal Party claim to have any respect for democracy while ignoring the clear results of their own survey?”
The numbers Mr. Herle delivered to the CWB show that nearly 70 per cent of Western Canadian farmers are demanding barley marketing freedom.
“If Ralph Goodale and his Eastern-based Liberal colleagues still refuse to listen to Western Canadian farmers, maybe they will at least consider the clear results provided by long-time Liberal insider David Herle,” said Minister Ritz. “Western Canadian farmers have made their demands for barley marketing freedom loud and clear. For 13 long years, the Liberals simply did not get it done and they must listen to farmers now. This is a time for action and Prime Minister Stephen Harper and this Government are delivering on farmers' demands for barley marketing freedom.

Ralph Goodale (left), who represents a Regina riding and is the lone Liberal MP between Winnipeg and Vancouver, says Ritz has it all wrong:

POLL SHOWS SUPPORT FOR CWB
A fresh survey among prairie farmers shows clear support for the Canadian Wheat Board.
Conservative Minister Gerry Ritz leaked just snippets of the survey last week – trying to twist the message as anti-Board. But the full results contradict his destructive interpretation.
For example, two-thirds of producers say they support the Board; they find its views quite similar to their own; and they’re confident the CWB will maximize returns to farmers.
Two-thirds of producers also believe the Board gets higher prices from the marketplace because of its single-desk system. By a similar margin, they suspect a “dual market” would disadvantage the CWB because it doesn’t own any elevators or terminals.
Close to 70 percent feel the more flexible pricing and delivery options recently initiated by the CWB provide many of the perceived benefits of dual marketing – without sacrificing the advantages of the single-desk.
This poll also highlights strong disagreement with the under-handed tactics the Harper government uses against the Wheat Board.
Specifically, 77 percent say the future of the Board should not be determined by politicians, but by producers themselves and the people they elect to be CWB Directors.
But Mr. Ritz is proposing the opposite – i.e., he has introduced a new law to eliminate all producer control and allow the Conservatives to kill single-desk marketing by issuing secret orders from the federal Cabinet.
There would be no consultation. No role for the elected Directors, or Parliament or the Courts. No vote among producers. No democracy. No transparency. Nothing!
If Mr. Ritz is so sure of his position, he should simply act under the law as it exists today.
Hold a fair and respectful producer plebiscite.
Ask a direct, honest question – “Do you want the CWB’s single-desk system or the Open Market?”
And then abide by the results.

And now that you've read that intro, here is the official release from the Wheat Board itself with the details of the survey.

Just get the stuff to Burma …

Late today, Canada announced it would send 10,000 temporary shelters to Burma. That's great news.

The Conservatives, however, can't resist taking some partisan political jabs at those — like the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Québecois — who questioned the need to spend billions on four Boeing C-17 transport planes for our military. We'd always got our gear, aid, and soldiers to wherever they needed to go by renting rides from our allies or commercial operators and no one — and I've asked often right up and down the chain of command — has yet named an instance when Canadian assets were stranded because of the lack of a big jet plane. Those billions, others argued, were better spent on search-and-rescue aircraft or on new helicopters.

But the Conservatives were having none of that. They wanted the big Boeings and, by dang, they were going to get them. And, to their credit, they got them in record time, so far as a major Defence Department procurement project goes.

But really, do they need to lord it over their opponents while announcing what should be a wholly non-partisan initiative – sending aid to Burma?

Read the press release put out by the Canadian International Development Agency (Bev Oda, prop.) this afternoon. Can you sense the ALL-CAPS “told-you-so” attitude when CIDA points out that this aid is travelling to Burma via ONE of our FOUR C-17s?

Some excerpts for those too lazy to click through (and the ALL-CAPS part is from the original release):

…On Wednesday May 14, the shelter kits will be shipped from CFB Trenton to Bangkok via ONE OF the Department of National Defence's FOUR Globemaster C-17 aircraft. The International Red Cross Movement will then manage the shipment into the Rangoon region and distribute the shelter kits to people in need in the affected areas. “By using our C-17, Canada's Government is responding to the humanitarian emergency in Burma with a large shipment of emergency aid supplies,” said Minister MacKay. “These supplies will bring much-needed relief to Burma in a timely fashion.” … … On Wednesday May 14, 40 metric tonnes of emergency relief supplies will be moved from CIDA's emergency stockpile in Mississauga to CFB Trenton. They will then be loaded onto ONE OF THE Canadian military's FOUR C-17 Globemasters for airlift to Bangkok, Thailand where officials from the Canadian Government and the Red Cross Movement will receive them. . . .

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Money and U.S. politics

The Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics reports today that lobbyists who are trying to get Congress to do their bidding spent a whopping $2.8-billion (US) last year, a jump of 7.7 per cent over the amount lobbyists are believed to have spent in 2006. As the CRP reports, that works out to $17-million a day for every day the U.S. Congress was in session.

By sector, drug companies were tops, spending more than a quarter-billion dollars on lobbying efforts. The insurance sector (who knew?) was number two.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent more than any other single organization, followed by General Electric. Check out the CRP's Top 20 list for other big spenders.

The CRP results may actually underreport the amount of money spent to influence lawmakers in Washington. As the CRP explains:

The Center for Responsive Politics calculated spending on lobbying as narrowly defined under the Lobbying Disclosure Act of 1995, because that is what is disclosed to the Senate Office of Public Records (SOPR) and House Legislative Resource Center. Spending by corporations, industry groups, unions and other interests that is not strictly for lobbying of covered government officials, but is still meant to influence public policy, is not reported—and may exceed what was spent on direct lobbying. Such activities include public relations, advertising and grassroots lobbying.

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