Not a lot of good news in the latest economic forecast from the Toronto Dominion Bank's economics department.
The department, headed by Don Drummond, lowered its forecasts this afternoon. It now says Canada will be in recession by the end of the year. That's a change from the forecast it issued just over a month ago when it predicted Canada's economy would grow this this year and next.
And if that's not bad enough, here's another ominous line from the report:
“We … attach a 30-40% chance to the possibility of a more pessimistic outcome, which produces the worst U.S. recession since 1982, and the worst G7 recession since the Great Depression.”
As he gets set to name his cabinet on Thursday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has a relatively strong crop of MPs who are either first-time MPs or, like B.C.'s John Duncan, returning to the Commons after sitting out the Parliament. Today, we take a look at a few of the names that keep coming up in Ottawa gossip:
Here's the short version:
Stands a good chance:
Leona Aglukkaq (Nunavut – NU)
Gail Shea (Egmont – PE)
Lisa Raitt (Halton – ON)
Bob Dechert (Missississauga-Erindale – ON)
Keith Ashfield – (Fredericton – NB)
John Duncan – (Vancouver Island North – BC)
Stands an outside chance:
Lois Brown (Newmarket-Aurora ON) Peter Kent (Thornhill – ON) Shelley Glover (St. Boniface – MB)
Alice Wong (Richmond – BC)
John Weston (West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country – BC)
OTTAWA – Nunavut’s Leona Aglukkaq and Prince Edward Island’s Gail Shea lead a group of rookie MPs who could join Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s cabinet later this week. Harper will name his new ministers on Thursday, Canwest News Service has…read more…
Equity markets continued to bleed this week, with overseas and emerging markets moving to the frontline of the battle against the bears. Indeed, the 6.8% and 2.8% respective declines in the S&P 500 and TSX paled in comparison to 20%-plus shakedowns in Argentina and Korea, and the 10%-plus declines in Brazil, Mexico, Germany and Japan. With overseas markets tanking Friday morning and U.S. futures trading “limit down”, many were speculating that the NYSE circuit breakers would be used to halt trading (they were not). Whether you want to blame it on the moon—as in the 1998 Charles Dow award winning paper—or the fact that markets are digesting the increasing likelihood of a global economic and earnings recession—that’s more up our alley—the volatility is numbing.
If, however, you do prefer to look at the moon rather than underlying earnings, here’s one to keep you up this weekend: The last time the NYSE used its circuit breakers to halt trading was during the Asian financial crisis on October 27th, 1997. Monday, of course, is October 27th…
The United Nations Assistant High Commissioner for Protection, Erika Feller (left), gave a speech in Fairfax, Virginia today that contained this remarkable and sad statistic: There are more than 1.6 million children around the world who have become separated from their parents or guardians and, worse, even the most developed countries have few systems in place to deal with a situation in which a child refugee or migrant shows up within a national border and the child's parents are somewhere else.
Fellers said current asylum and migration procedures are designed primarily for the needs of adults and she said that a common problem in many countries, including the US, is the lack of government-appointed counsel or guardians for these children.
“The absence of representation to enable a child to navigate the legal hurdles of entry and proper assessment of protection needs is fundamentally detrimental to children’s best interests,” she said.
With the announcement this afternoon that U.S. President George Bush will host leaders of the G20, including Canada, in Washington on Nov. 15 for an economic summit, the calendar for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Parliament is starting to firm up. Here's what we know with best guesses denoted by a (?):
Week of Oct. 27 : New cabinet sworn in ? PMO types are saying sometime in the next two weeks for this although the buzz around Ottawa is that a new cabinet will, in fact, be sworn in at Rideau Hall on Monday, Oct. 27. UPDATE: Nov 13-15 – Conservative Party convention in Winnipeg. Pencil in Harper to speak in the evening of Nov. 14 before jetting to Washington? Maybe he speaks on the 13th to open the convention? Nov. 15: Harper joins G20 leaders in Washington, D.C. for economic summit.
Nov. 16-21: Harper joins APEC Leaders in Lima, Peru for annual leaders summit.
Week of Nov. 24: – 40th Parliament opens with Throne Speech ? followed in short order by Economic and Fiscal Update ?
And English is apparently McCain's first language…
“… last week.. a Pennsylvania Democrat, Representative John P. Murtha, .. told The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, speaking of his home base, that “there is no question that Western Pennsylvania is a racist area.”
Mr. McCain referenced Mr. Murtha’s comments in his third stop of the day [in Pennsylvania], at Robert Morris University here, when he said, “I think you may have noticed that Senator Obama’s supporters have been saying some pretty nasty things about Western Pennsylvania lately.” As the crowd booed, Mr. McCain became tangled up in the rest of his remarks. “And you know, I couldn’t agree with them more,” he said, to silence, and then wandered around in a verbal thicket before finally managing to say, “I could not disagree with those critics more; this is a great part of America.” [From the NY Times]
I've been off the Hill for the last couple of days fighting a nasty little flu bug.
When I was a kid, staying home sick meant that I got to watch a lot of daytime TV like The Price Is Right. I know Price is still hot what with Drew Carey hosting and all but, nowadays, when I get a sick day, it's a chance for me to do some e-learning.
Here's one that looks interesting — it's a quick five-week course from Stanford University professor Martin Lewis called “The Geography of U.S. Presidential Elections.” In it, Lewis challenges the idea that our American neighbours can be neatly divvied up into so-called red states and blue states.
Stanford's “iTunes U”, I should note, has a pretty broad collection of courses and lectures. One that I listened to over the summer and would recommend was a course from professor James Sheehan titled “History of the International System.” (In the iTunes store, search for “stanford sheehan” and you should see it.)
Here I am in my mid-forties, pretty much an old fogy now (heck, the Bank of Canada governor is younger than me and if that isn't a signal you're over the hill, I don't know what is), but I still try to keep an eye on what the kids are listening to nowadays.
One of the differences that struck me about music today compared to when I was a kid growing up in the late 70s and early 80s was the whole concept of the “live album.” DJs nowadays do sets and move them around the Web the way Grateful Dead fans used to trade cassette tapes of any one of the 200 or so live shows the Dead used to play every year. And that's fair enough.
But back in my day, the big 'live album' set, usually a double- or triple-LP set complete with fold-out sleeves was a Very Big Deal.
I ran across a few of those collections tonight — the original vinyl editions — as I continue the long process of digitizing my records. One of those collections I consider one of the finest live rock records ever made: Ian Hunter's Welcome to the Club. Hunter was the dude that put Mott the Hoople on the map and, on this record, released in 1980 and recorded over seven sold-out nights in beautiful, downtown Cleveland, he resurrects Mott the Hoople's most famous track “All the Young Dudes” (right, with a version that seems, to me, a lot like the one on the record. I love the knee-length leather boots), the David Bowie-penned anthem that speaks to all of us who think we're just too hip to be cool.
Mick Ronson, the guitarist who played with Mott, is on this record and absolutely shines with a George Gershwin's “Slaughter on 10th Avenue”, played, on this live set, right after dudes.
Welcome to the Club also rocks out with “Cleveland Rocks”, “All the Way to Memphis”, and “Just Another Night”. If you've never heard the record, get thee to the nearest online music store and spend the $10. As for me, though I'm trying to cull some of the vinyl in the basement, this one's staying with me even if I never own another turntable.
So other tremendous live records?
Strangely enough, for someone who thinks The Clash is, in fact, the greatest band of all time and prefers, say, the 1980s smart white funk of The Talking Heads or The Gang of Four to, say, long-haired white guys in Grand Funk Railroad and The James Gang, I'm hard pressed to identify a terrific live record that wasn't made by, well, long-haired white guys. The Talking Heads even had two “live” records neither of which make my list. Stop Making Sense was a better movie than a soundtrack and The Name of this Band Is … seems, like so many live efforts, an excuse to throw out a greatest hits package.
So here's my list of best live rock on vinyl. Throw yours in the comments section:
J. Geils Band : Live! Full House! – J. Geils in mid-70s with Magic Dick at his most magical. If you're a big fan, you could try the other live sets they put out on Blow Your Face Out but for my money, this is the better live album and one of the all-time greats.
Rolling Stones: Get Yer Ya-Ya's Out: “You wouldn't want me trousers to fall down now, would you?”, a very young Mick Jagger drools in this outstanding 1970 live set notable for the best recorded live version of “Jumpin' Jack Flash”, “Midnight Rambler”, and “Sympathy for the Devil.”
Allman Brothers Band – At Fillmore East – OK, like how cool is this — two songs on this landmark live set — “Whipping Post” and “”You Don't Love Me” take up two of the four sides the double-LP vinyl release. The Allmans would later release a 34-minute version of “Mountain Jam” which, believe it or not, sounds like it's too short! Here's rock critic David McGee writing about this in 1979: “…there are no wasted notes, no pointless jams, no half-realized vocals — everything counts …” McGee, I think, sums it up nicely and also sets the standard that another top-seller from my teen years, Peter Frampton's Frampton Comes Alive, fails to meet 30 years on. There are some great tracks on Alive but Frampton's double-LP sounds too bloated.
Cheap Trick : Live at Budokan — The energy in “I Want You To Want Me” and “Surrender” alone make this one an all-time great — whether you're talking “live albums” or just “greatest albums.”
Paul McCartney and Wings : Wings Over America — John Lennon once witheringly dismissed the Tin Pan Alley-esque tunes like “Martha My Dear” that Paul kicked into the The White Album as “Paul's Granny Music.” Well, post-Beatles, Paul seemed to wallow in “Granny Music”, if you ask me. But on a couple of nights in America with his band, Wings, Paul actually rocked out and this is the result. Many will dismiss this effort and that's fair enough. But “Jet” and “Band on the Run” have never had so much power. And there's no getting around the fact that when it comes to ballads like his “Blackbird” or Simon and Garfunkel's “Richard Cory”, Paul could sing a song. Oh – and this one gets bonus points because it's a triple LP!!!
The Who : Live at Leeds — My second favourite band after The Clash cuz, like The Clash, there's a lot of brains behind their electric brawn. On this record, there was way too much power for my tiny stereo when I was growing up and now, nearly 40 (that's right, 40!) years later, there's still nothing that touches it for its energy and Daltrey's howls.
The United Nations Assistant High Commissioner for Protection, Erika Feller (left), gave a speech in Fairfax, Virginia today that contained 
J. Geils Band : Live! Full House! – J. Geils in mid-70s with Magic Dick at his most magical. If you're a big fan, you could try the other live sets they put out on Blow Your Face Out but for my money, this is the better live album and one of the all-time greats.
Rolling Stones: Get Yer Ya-Ya's Out: “You wouldn't want me trousers to fall down now, would you?”, a very young Mick Jagger drools in this outstanding 1970 live set notable for the best recorded live version of “Jumpin' Jack Flash”, “Midnight Rambler”, and “Sympathy for the Devil.”
Paul McCartney and Wings : Wings Over America — John Lennon once witheringly dismissed the Tin Pan Alley-esque tunes like “Martha My Dear” that Paul kicked into the The White Album as “Paul's Granny Music.” Well, post-Beatles, Paul seemed to wallow in “Granny Music”, if you ask me. But on a couple of nights in America with his band, Wings, Paul actually rocked out and this is the result. Many will dismiss this effort and that's fair enough. But “Jet” and “Band on the Run” have never had so much power. And there's no getting around the fact that when it comes to ballads like his “Blackbird” or Simon and Garfunkel's “Richard Cory”, Paul could sing a song. Oh – and this one gets bonus points because it's a triple LP!!!