And now the national forecast: hot and dry

This just in from Environment Canada:

     OTTAWA, June 1 /CNW Telbec/ – Environment Canada today released the summer seasonal outlook for the months of June, July and August. The summer outlook predicts that much of Canada will be warmer than normal.
     Highlights from the Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook for June, July and August 2007:

     – At this time, ocean influences from EL NINO or LA NINA are weak meaning lower confidence in the summer outlook for both temperature and precipitation.

     – Temperatures are expected to be above average over most of Canada except for coastal regions of Atlantic Canada and British Columbia where the temperatures should be below normal.

     – Near normal temperatures are expected over Nunavut and parts of southern Ontario.

     – Precipitation is expected to be normal to below normal over much of Canada.

     The Seasonal Outlook at times can be beneficial to many users as it offers greater advance notice of possible conditions. Firefighters may consider seasonal forecasts to position staff in areas susceptible to forest fires; merchants to stock up on items such as snowblowers, shovels and generators; farmers to determine the best time to plant their seeds; and commodities markets to trade futures in weather-dependent industries.
     As the accuracy of long-range forecasts varies from region to region and from season to season, we suggest that you consult the skill maps that accompany the latest information on Environment Canada's seasonal outlooks.
     Because weather can vary from one year to the next due to natural variability, it is difficult to attribute these changes to a specific cause.

Washington Post: US Rejects G-8 Climate Proposal

The Washington Post reports yesterday that:

U.S. Rejects G-8 Climate Proposal

Germany Urges Limiting Emissions, Temperature Increase

U.S. officials have raised a second round of unusually bluntly worded objections to a proposed global-warming declaration that Germany prepared for next month's Group of Eight summit, according to documents obtained by The Washington Post.

Representatives from the world's leading industrial nations met the past two days in Heiligendamm, Germany, to negotiate over German Chancellor Angela Merkel's proposed statement, which calls for limiting the worldwide temperature rise this century to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit and cutting global greenhouse gas emissions to 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 …

UK government adopts climate change policy rules

The British government today announced some guidelines and recommendations it believes will help the UK government as it embarks on new regulatory regimes to address issues of climate change. The government was moved to do this in response to a report submitted to it by the Better Regulation Commission (BRC), a government commission.

Among other things, the BRC came up with seven “tests” it believes ought to be applied by policy makers when considering climate change regulation:

1. Ensure climate policy is consistent with a healthy UK economy

2. Government must develop and act consistently with a climate change strategy; avoiding piecemeal announcements

3. Test policy against a carbon price benchmark

4. Carbon policy choices must be efficient; don't do things twice

5. Keep administrative costs to a minimum

6. Do not use climate change as a justification for other policy
goals

7. If it isn't working, change it

The UK government agreed with these rules and added this comment:

The Government agrees with all of these tests and the response is positive on how, if it is not already happening, the government will take each test forward. However the government is only able to agree
in principle to test four ('Carbon Policy choices must be efficient; don't do things twice') because it may sometimes be necessary for several instruments to operate within one particular sector. However, they need to be proportionate, and inter-linkages should not over-burden any one sector. For example, there may be benefits in having energy efficiency policies in order to encourage a prompt response to carbon price signals, and so as to secure climate change and security of supply objectives together.

The Green leak

You may have heard yesterday that the RCMP arrested and charged a federal government employee of Environment Canada for allegedly leaking drafts of what would be the government’s clean air plan. Here’s a roundup of reaction from various politicians after Question Period yesterday. The questions are being put to the politicians from various different reporters from several different news organizations in a scrum:

Hon. John Baird (Minister of the Environment): Let me say at the outset,  the overwhelming 99.9 percent of folks who work in our public service are honest people who follow the public service code of values and ethics. I think it always is a concern when someone anonymously and on an authorized basis releases information so our security department, at the direction of the deputy minister, called in the police who looked into the issue and obviously feel it's serious enough to lay charges.   I mean to make a — to look into would it make an arrest.

Reporter:   Is it market sensitive from your perspective or is this about government sending a signal that you can't throw these documents around no matter what, whether it's market sensitive or not?

Baird:  I think obviously we get very concerned when people on an unauthorized basis release information.

Reporter:    There's lots of leaks in Ottawa so why was this deemed of sufficient importance to call in the police?

Baird: The deputy minister [Michael Horgan], after reviewing the file and after speaking with the security folks at the department felt it necessary to.  Listen, the overwhelming majority of public servants don't on an unauthorized basis anonymously, you know, leak information.  It's unfortunate that a small number give a bad reputation to the overwhelming majority of people who are ethical in the public service.  Obviously the deputy was concerned enough about it with our security folks —

Reporter:   Has anybody ever been arrested before?

Baird:  No idea. 

Reporter:    What kind of a signal are you sending to the bureaucracy when you clamp down on them like this?

Baird::  I think we've signalled that the code of values and ethics for public servants is important.

Reporter:   Does it discourage whistleblowing?

Baird::  I don't think there's any suggestion that this was involving a whistleblower.  Someone on an unauthorized basis leaked something, sensitive information anonymously. 

Reporter:   How's it going to look — how's it going to look if this guy goes to prison over leaking, you know, the Green Plan?

Baird:   It's not in my hands.  It's out of my hands.

From the Liberals:

Stephane Dion (Leader of the Official Opposition): .. I will never encourage this kind of behaviour whether it's from Environment Canada or Finance Canada or whatever. I will not speculate on this specific case. I don't know if I may come with accusation against the government when I don't know what is happening. I will not comment on the specific case. For the principle, I think civil servants must respect the secrecy of their role.

And the NDP’s perspective:

The Hon. Jack Layton:  I think that the government should spend a little bit more time going after the pollution and the polluters than the whistleblowers who are just trying to allow the public to know what's going on behind the closed doors. 

Reporter:     But they did violate … the Act that governs their employment. 

Layton: Well that's a, that's an allegation.  That's certainly not been proven.  And I think that what's important here is that the government needs to be open and transparent in, in explaining to Canadians why it has adopted such weak proposals and laws regarding, with regard to pollution.  The fact is that most of these documents can be obtained ultimately through freedom of information so I don't know why the government would be trying to hide information about the evolution of its policy.

Reporter: Is the governnment trying to send a message to the civil service?

Layton:  I have no doubt that the government's trying to send a message, put a big chill over anyone who's trying to make the truth available.  Why isn't the government making the truth available itself?  Why do we have to go searching through access to information laws to get access to, to government documents?  It doesn't make sense.  I thought they were standing for transparency and openness.  This certainly seems to be the opposite.  … There's no question what the consequences will be, which is to send a chill within the public service.  What we felt was that a sense of openness and, and honesty and straightforward presentation of information was what we were promised by Mr. Harper.  Well, the Canadian public certainly isn't getting that. 

And now back to Dion:

Reporter: Mr. Layton has just said that he wishes the Conservative government would be as zealous in reducing pollution as it is in reducing leaks.

Dion: Mr. Layton will never govern. I have a responsibility as Leader of the Opposition. I want to become Prime Minister of this country. I need to be respected and I will never encourage this kind of behaviour whether it's from Environment Canada or Finance Canada or whatever. I will not speculate on this specific case. I don't know if I may come with accusations against the government when I don't know what is happening. I will not comment on the specific case. For the principle, I think civil servants must respect the secrecy of their role.

May says sorry, sort of …

Green Party leader Elizabeth May just put out the following statement in response to reaction to her comments in which she compared the Harper government’s Green Plan to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s policy of Nazi appeasement in the 1930s.

Statement by Elizabeth May, Leader, Green Party of Canada

“I am dismayed that members of the Harper government have chosen to distort my comments to create a firestorm of controversy designed to distract attention from their failure to live up to Canada's Kyoto commitments.

“I can assure the Canadian Jewish Congress and all Canadians that I did not compare Nazi Germany and the Holocaust to any current issue. The evil of the Nazi regime is without parallel and stands alone for its deliberate, systematic and inhuman genocide.

“George Monbiot, best-selling author of HEAT and respected journalist at The Guardian, echoed the views of many people around the world when he expressed his deep distress at Canada's abdication of responsibility in the current climate crisis. As a failure of leadership and moral courage, he compared it to the appeasement efforts of Neville Chamberlain.

“I made reference to Mr. Monbiot’s statement to highlight the damage being done to Canada’s international reputation, something that should concern all Canadians.

“I deeply regret that the inflamed rhetoric around this issue has caused pain or offence.”

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UN appoints climate change special envoys

Days ahead of a key report from the United Nations-convened Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon appointed three Special Envoys For Climate Change. The Special Envoys will be tasked with soliciting the views of national leaders on the issue.

The IPCC report out this Friday — the third this year from that group — will suggest ways the world’s governments can reduce or slow global warming and how much it is likely to cost.

The three Special Envoys are:

  • Norwegian ex-Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland is the former Chair of the World Commission of Environment and Development, which is best known for developing the broad political concept of sustainable development and two decades ago published a landmark report, “Our Common Future.”
  • President Ricardo Lagos Escobar of Chile founded the Foundation for Democracy and Development, which works for sustainable development. Since April 2006, he has been serving as president of the Club de Madrid where he led the organization to increase its involvement in environmental issues.
  • Han Seung-soo, the former General Assembly President, currently heads the Korea Water Forum, which works towards sustainable water management in Asia. He served previously in numerous high-level government posts, including Minister of Foreign Affairs, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Minister of Trade and Industry, Chief of Staff to the President and Korean Ambassador to the United States.
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Trying to stop the Swindle

Scientists are lobbying UK regulators to prevent the DVD distribution of a documentary that claims global warming is hoax. One of the scientists who is featured in the documentary now says the film is “as close to pure propaganda as anything since World War II.” Again: The guy who said that was actually in the movie.

Here’s your key grafs, from an article earlier this week in The Guardian in Britain:

Move to block emissions 'swindle' DVD

Dozens of climate scientists are trying to block the DVD release of a controversial Channel 4 programme that claimed global warming is nothing to do with human greenhouse gas emissions.
Sir John Houghton, former head of the Met Office, and Bob May, former president of the Royal Society, are among 37 experts who have called for the DVD to be heavily edited or removed from sale. The film, the Great Global Warming Swindle, was first shown on March 8, and was criticised by scientists as distorted and misleading.

In an open letter to Martin Durkin, head of Wag TV, the independent production company that made the film, the scientists say: “We believe that the misrepresentation of facts and views, both of which occur in your programme, are so serious that repeat broadcasts of the programme, without amendment, are not in the public interest … In fact, so serious and fundamental are the misrepresentations that the distribution of the DVD of the programme without their removal amounts to nothing more than an exercise in misleading the public.”

The programme featured scientists known as climate sceptics, such as Richard Lindzen at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Phillip Stott, emeritus professor at the University of London. It argued that mainstream researchers ignore evidence that counters the consensus that most recent warming is down to human activity. It said there were problems with the computer models that predict future climate change and that solar activity, not greenhouse gas emissions, is to blame for recent warming. Wag TV called the programme a “definitive response to Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth”. Scientists complained that the programme makers distorted evidence, and made elementary mistakes such as claiming that volcanoes produce more carbon dioxide than human activities, when in fact they produce less than 2% of that caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

… Carl Wunsch, professor of physical oceanography at MIT, and another signatory to the letter, was featured in the film and subsequently said his views had been misrepresented. He called the programme “as close to pure propaganda as anything since world war two” and has complained to Ofcom, the broadcasting regulator, about his treatment.

 

Attention Catholics: Pope says get green!

I’m an Anglican but this Pope guy sounds like he’s got a plan

The Vatican yesterday added its voice to a rising chorus of warnings from churches around the world that climate change and abuse of the environment is against God's will, and that the one billion-strong Catholic church must become far greener.

At a Vatican conference on climate change, Pope Benedict urged bishops, scientists and politicians – including UK environment secretary David Miliband – to “respect creation” while “focusing on the needs of sustainable development” … [the rest of the story]

The Great Global Warming Swindle Swindle

This evening, on another network’s national newscast, the contents of a British documentary called “The Great Global Warming Swindle”  were reported. Many readers of this blog have brought this film to my attention and, as it has been widely available from time to time on YouTube and elsewhere on the Web, I often open my mail client in the morning to find the URL to this documentary in my inbox. Thank you to those of you who have sent this my way. I am always keen to get more information and more context on the climate change story.

But, as I have pointed out to many of you have corresponded with me over this,  “The Great Global Warming Swindle”, which aired in early March on Channel 4 in the UK, has proved to be a swindle itself: The producer of the documentary has admitted that he fabricated some of the data to make his point.

The following article appeared in the British newspaper The Independent on March 17. It was written by the paper's science editor, Steve Connor:

The real global warming swindle

A Channel 4 documentary claimed that climate change was a conspiratorial lie. But an analysis of the evidence it used shows the film was riddled with distortions and errors

A Channel 4 documentary that claimed global warming is a swindle was itself flawed with major errors which seriously undermine the programme's credibility, according to an investigation by The Independent.

The Great Global Warming Swindle, was based on graphs that were distorted, mislabelled or just plain wrong. The graphs were nevertheless used to attack the credibility and honesty of climate scientists . . .

Martin Durkin, who wrote and directed the film, admitted yesterday that one of the graphs contained serious errors but he said they were corrected in time for the second transmission of the programme following inquiries by The Independent.

Mr Durkin has already been criticised by one scientist who took part in the programme over alleged misrepresentation of his views on the climate . . .

Mr Durkin admitted that his graphics team had extended the time axis along the bottom of the graph to the year 2000. “There was a fluff there,” he said.

If Mr Durkin had gone directly to the Nasa website he could have got the most up-to-date data. This would have demonstrated that the amount of global warming since 1975, as monitored by terrestrial weather stations around the world, has been greater than that between 1900 and 1940 – although that would have undermined his argument.

“The original Nasa data was very wiggly-lined and we wanted the simplest line we could find,” Mr Durkin said. . . .

[Read the full story at: http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/climate_change/article2355956.ece ]

 

Waiting for a Green Plan

Just touched down in Toronto for the media lockup with Environment Minister John Baird. At that lockup Baird will detail the industrial regulations his government will  ring in in order to lower Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 and halve emissions of other pollutants. This is a highly managed communications event. There are three separate lockups in downtown Toronto. Media are locked up at Polson Pier in Toronto’s waterfront from noon to 4 pm. Baird will give a press conference inside the lockup at 2:30 or so but no news about the plan will come out until after stock markets close at 4 pm.

Activists are locked up from 2 to 4 pm at a hotel in Yorkville and industry types are locked up at a hotel  near Toronto’s theatre district, also from 2 to 4 pm. On our flight to Toronto this morning, were two key advisors from the Prime Minister’s Office: Mark Cameron and Rohit Gupta. Gupta, who was once a top Bay Street analyst before joining the PMO is briefing financial analysts on the plan.

Meanwhile, in Calgary, Indian and Northern Affairs Minister Jim Prentice and Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn will meet with oil and gas industry representatives. That meeting will conclude, we are told, at 4:30 pm Toronto time. No one has told us where that meeting is being held.

And in Montreal, Industry Minister Maxime Bernier will be the government’s point man there.

There are no Baird press conferences after 4 pm although we are told he has a number of one-on-one interviews scheduled with a variety of media organizations.

Prime Minister Harper will also be in Toronto later today — actually, he’ll be north of Toronto in Thornhill — for an unrelated event where he’s speaking to a group of firefighters. His office says he will  take no questions from reporters at that event.

Liberal leader Stephane Dion will respond to the green plan also in Toronto. He is at an event in Richmond Hill this evening. The NDP and Bloc Quebecois will likely respond from Ottawa.

Again — all will be revealed at 4 pm today. CTV Newsnet will  have live coverage starting at that time. My colleague Rosemary Thompson will be in the lockup here and should be reporting as soon as she can once the lockup lifts. Look for lots of coverage as well on Mike Duffy Live tonight (5 pm/8 pm EDT) on Newsnet. And I’ll have a report ready for use by CTV’s regional newscasts over the dinner hour and we may have more to say on CTV National News tonight at 11 pm.