NDP's growth strategy aims at Tory ridings

Earlier this week, the federal New Democrats leaked a memo the party's campaign director, Brad Lavigne, wrote to leader Jack Layton as talk of a federal election heated up.  As Conservatives and Liberals aired television ads to show the world they were ready for all comers, should a federal election happen this spring, this amounts to the NDP equivalent from a “chest-thumping” “bring-it-on” point-of-view. That said: The NDP memo is way more interesting than the TV ads of either of the other two parties.

NDP State of Election Readiness (January 2011)

You can scroll through the whole thing but here's my highlights:

  • “…the Party is prepared to wage an aggressive federal election campaign at any time. I have given the staff team here the readiness date of mid-­‐February to be ready to go on your signal…”
  • “Financing has been secured that will allow the Party to spend the central legal maximum, estimated at approximately $23 million, in the next campaign.”
  • “Of the next tier of seats for us, 2/3rds are currently held by the Conservative Party. In these ridings Liberal voters, particularly women and young people, want to defeat the Conservatives but do not like Mr. Ignatieff. They do like you and are very willing to vote NDP. The research suggests that our base has solidified behind your leadership, while the Liberal base is very unimpressed with Mr. Ignatieff and volatile.”

 

U.S. defence expert tells Canadian MPs: No way to know how much your F-35 program will cost

Canada wants to buy 65 F-35 fighter jets. The government says the purchase price is $9 billion, including some spare parts and weapons but not including a long-term maintenance contract.

Today, Winslow Wheeler, the director of the Straus Military Reform Project at the Center For Defense Information in Washington, D.C., releases written testimony he was asked to give to the House of Commons Standing Committee on National Defence. Wheeler says he tries to answer three questions in his testimony:

1. What will Canada’s F-35As cost?

2. What will Canada obtain for that expense?

3. Is there a good reason to wait?

The short answers to those three questions: 1. Unable to know. 2. Unable to know 3. Yes.

Some quotes from the piece:

I can guarantee to you, however, that the unit cost Canada will pay for a complete, operational F-35A will be well in excess of $70 million – even taking into account whatever exclusion of American costs to develop the aircraft your government may be able to negotiate.

If and when Canada signs an actual purchase contract for F-35As in 2014, as I understand is currently planned, the real question is what multiple of CAD$70 million will Canada have to pay?  I do not believe it unreasonable to expect a multiplication factor of two.

Finally, what will be your costs to operate this aircraft?  In January 2010, the U.S. Navy estimated the cost of operating F-35C’s to be 62 percent higher than operating its current F-18A-Ds and AV-8Bs.  New operating costs for the F-35 are now being discussed inside the Pentagon; the cost is, of course, going up.  Even the lesser A model will be a very large increase in operating costs over your CF-18s.  It would not be unreasonable to expect the flying hour costs to double.

One of the tricky bits for the designer is to deliver on promises to make this a “stealth” fighter, which means it will be hard or impossible for enemy radars to pick up the F-35. Wheeler has something to say about the stealth promises:

The above assumes the stealth characteristic performs as designed, but that is usually not the case.  My work at the U.S. Government Accountability Office on stealth systems made it clear to me that not a single U.S. stealth aircraft had lived up to its original detectability promises, and the F-35 looks to be no exception.

And, in Wheeler's view, the stealth technology comes with sharp performance trade-offs:

The F-35’s stealth features build into the aircraft weight and drag so severe that a hugely powerful engine gives the F-35 less rapid acceleration than American F-18Cs or F-16Cs, according to the data I have seen. The combination of the F-35’s considerable weight and its small-ish wings means it has a “wing loading” (and as a result maneuverability) roughly equivalent to an American F-105 fighter-bomber of the Vietnam era. The F-105 “Lead Sled” was notorious for its inability to defend itself over North Vietnam during the Indochina War.

 

Aerospace industry slams Liberal attack ads

The Liberal Party of Canada, earlier today, released the 15-second ad (above) which it says will air across the country. By the end of the day, the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada and Aéro Montréal had joined the Conservatives in denouncing the ads.

The tone of the release from the AIAC ( IAC comments on Official Opposition's fundamental lack of understanding of the importance of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program to the Canadian Aerospace industry ) was pretty dismissive. Key quote:

The Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC) today deplored a fundamental lack of understanding of the strategic importance of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program to the Canadian Aerospace Industry as demonstrated in television ads posted on the Web this morning.

“The Government of Canada has participated in the JSF initiative for almost 15 years and an acquisition decision to acquire 65 aircraft to replace our aging CF-18 fleet was finally made earlier this year.  Moreover, many of our members are now pursuing JSF contract opportunities with the determination and confidence that defines our industry,” said Dr. Claude Lajeunesse, CEO of the AIAC.  “And the doubt and dithering signals that internal political debates send to the world will only result in the loss of opportunities and much needed high-skill, high-value added and long-term jobs for Canadians from coast to coast.”

The release from Aéro Montréal, which represents aerospace industries in the Montreal region, is less partisan and seems less interested in picking a fight with Liberals. Still, it didn't seem too pleased with the ad. Read the whole thing here: Ottawa Official Opposition's new television ads – Aéro Montréal reiterates the importance of the acquisition of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Jets for the aerospace industry but here's what amounts to the juiciest quote:

“To maximize the benefits of this decision for the industry, we need a stable environment. That's why Aéro Montréal supports the federal government's decision to proceed with the purchase of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jets. By working together, we can protect and create thousands of high-quality and well paid jobs that will be available for future generations. “

In the meantime, former diplomat Mark Collins has an interesting comment on some of the troubles the F-35 program is getting into in the U.S.

 

 

 

 

More on mortgage rules and the nanny state

Across our chain today, I take a contrarian view as to the worth of new mortgage rules announced by the federal government on Monday. An excerpt:

Consider 25-year-old Sheila. She might prefer the low monthly payments that come with a long-term mortgage while she pays off her student loan. She’d have picked a 40-year amortization now thinking that, when she’s 30 with her student debt retired (and probably earning more), she could refinance her mortgage, taking a 15-year amortization period. For Sheila, that would be prudent use of her cash flow — and she’d still be mortgage-free on her 45th birthday.

But no longer: Ottawa has decided Sheila and her bank, working in each other’s interests, cannot be trusted to make good decisions.

By all means, governments should ensure our banks follow sound lending practices.

And our federal government should do all it can to create more Sheilas who are prudent and wise with their finances. But Ottawa should also ensure Sheila will have the full range of choices before her to secure her own long-term prosperity.

This week, the government did neither.

Some other thoughts that I couldn't squeeze in to the column:

  • In refusing to continue to provide CMHC-backing to home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), Finance Minister Jim Flaherty argues that Canadians taxpayers should not have to bear the risks for what should be a private sector arrangement between a lender and a borrower. Fair enough. But then, isn't that an argument to shut down the CMHC altogether? And, in any event, as Flaherty himself conceded, there are no indications that CMHC's guarantees were actually costing the Canadian taxpayer anything. (In fact, some have argued that the federal government makes a tidy sum through CMHC's insurance activities). In any event, I think it's doubtful to assume that if a consumer cannot get a HELOC without the CMHC's backing that that consumer will simply not borrow. In fact, that consumer will now likely seek a loan at higher rates or, likely worse, end up putting more on a credit card.
  • In lowering the amount a consumer can borrow against a home — from 90 per cent of its assessed value to 85 per cent – Flaherty argued that this was an appropriate measure “to promote saving through home ownership.” Promoting savings, seems to me, to be an excellent policy objective. But there is one fabulous, widely-endorsed, way for the federal government to goose savings rates: Cut income taxes and raise consumption taxes.
  • Both Flaherty and the Bank of Canada have indicated in the last several months that they are worried about problems down the road because of rising levels of household debt when measured against disposable income. The most recent measure was an all-time high for Canada. For every dollar of disposable income, Canadians now owed $1.48. On its own, this statistic might be cause for concern. But surely another important ratio in measuring the ability of Canadian households to service and manage their debts is the ratio of debts to assets. And, as BMO Capital Markets deputy chief economist Doug Porter has noted, “While debt has risen to record heights, so too have financial assets, due to a rebound in equities and an underlying rise in savings. Taking these factors into account, as well as the recovery in Canadian full-time employment, leads to the conclusion that household finances are not nearly as weakened as the dire headlines would suggest.”
  • Canada's bank watchdog, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, has already instructed lending institutions to do more testing of the risks that consumer debt poses to a consumer's balance sheet when that consumer seeks new credit. Good idea.

Finally, let me share with you an e-mail message I received from a reader who has been a mortgage broker for 20 years.

Bravo-

Finally an article on the government mortgage rules changes that addresses what they have really done to everyone for the sake of a few. The government is always window-dressing and this is more of it.

You hit the nail on the head with your example of someone with a student loan.There are countless others.The fact is that 90% financing has been the godsend for many clients who have found themselves in a financial situation that refinancing could solve at a much lower rate and much lower payment. These don't necessarily have to be distress situations either. They can be part of a financial plan to manage their debt in a much more efficient fashion and pay it out sooner.

There was no evidence that the crop of borrowers who participated in the no money down 40 year amortization mortgages were about to default! In fact the qualification parameters of this group of borrowers was much higher due to the risk involved but the government decided they just might start defaulting so we better cancel that program.

Ask the government for statistical situation related default statistics that tie into any program and they can't provide it.They are just doing it “just in case”

If anybody in government had the faintest idea of risk-lending parameters they could have addressed qualification standards for particular lending programs instead of taking the easy way out ,but that might have involved some thought and conscious input.

So why reduce the refinance limit to 85%? To protect our equity,of course!

The same holds true with 30 year amortizations.They are protecting the Canadian public from themselves and helping them pay off their mortgage sooner! All throughout my 20 years I have never met a client who intended to pay their mortgage out over 30, 35 or 40 years.They did intend to use the amortization as a financial planning tool as you outlined and now that option has been compromised again not to mention the qualification parameters of the first time home buyer group!

So who benefits? Do you think credit card companies and the banks who extend limits on credit cards at will and who extend lines of credit with the sweep of a pen will like the fact that this higher interest rate debt has less chance to be paid out and consolidated? Why do we never see legislation to deal with the systemic financial rape of the public. Mortgages are clearly not the problem but maybe there might be a banker whispering in the government's ear about the financial armaggeddon about to befall us. Must be tough to whisper while you salivate.

The Tory minister for Manitoba, Vic Toews, tees off on his hometown paper

AG2_QMIA121211_804

Public Safety Minister Vic Toews (above as snapped by the Sun’s Andre Forget) – who represents the southeastern Manitoba riding of Provencher and who is the Harper government’s political minister for Manitoba — is no fan of the province’s “paper of record”, the Winnipeg Free Press. (Full disclosure: My chain’s horse in that race is the Freep’s competitor the Winnipeg Sun.).

But I would go so far as to say, Toews is sceptical of the worth of all of us in the mainstream media. Last year, Toews took a nasty swipe at me and the Freep‘s Ottawa bureau chief Mia Rabson [full disclosure again: At the time I was working for Canwest/Postmedia and Mia was my office colleague] for the reporting we did at the beginning of the Rahim Jaffer affair.

Toews – to give you a bit of background — was Harper’s first justice minister, then moved to Treasury Board before being moved over to Public Safety. He is also a lawyer, a former attorney general for Manitoba and the Ottawa rumour mill has him in line for a seat on Manitoba’s Court of Queen’s Bench.

All if which is to say: Toews is a well-educated guy and he’s part of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s inner circle. That’s why we’re interested in what he tells his supporters and, tonight, Toews goes after Free Press columnist Dan Lett. Lett’s column “Political combat in south Winnipeg” spurred Toews to send the following e-mail message to his supporters:

Dear Friends, Colleagues and Others,

The word is in, according to Winnipeg Free Press columnist Dan Lett that is. Here’s Lett’s take on what will happen in Manitoba in the next federal election.

“… a quick examination of Manitoba’s 14 federal ridings shows clearly that…only three seats in the province with any chance of changing hands. If you’re a federal party leader and you’re going to campaign in Manitoba, you’d be wise to stay south of the Assiniboine River.”

It must have been a very quick examination, despite Lett’s insistence that the outcome is “clear”.

Perhaps it’s about the same amount of time that Lett spent during the 2006 election just before Rod Bruinooge snatched Winnipeg South from then cabinet minister Reg Alcock by a little over a hundred votes, and then consolidated that win by over 5,000 votes from another impressive Liberal candidate in 2008.

Or perhaps it’s the same amount of time he spent during the 2008 election campaign when everyone at the Winnipeg Free Press confirmed that their party’s candidate in St. Boniface would safely retain that seat, while condescendingly acknowledging that although Shelly Glover was a good candidate she was in the wrong riding if she wanted to be a Conservative MP.

And moving outside of Winnipeg for a moment – who can forget his insightful analysis of my own slim chances in Provencher in the last election? [Wishing Toews would provide a link here to this one – Akin]

But we can be sure Jack Layton will take Lett’s advice seriously: be “wise” and stay south of the Assiniboine River. He’ll just forget about his party’s recent byelection loss in North Winnipeg where only 30 percent of the electorate turned out to give a well known Winnipeg Free Press candidate a squeaker of a victory in a riding where some have said that New Democrat party membership applications are handed to babies when they leave the maternity ward. [That would be Liberal Kevin Lamoureux’s upset byelection victory in the riding long held by the NDP’s Judy Wasylycia-Leis – Akin]

Oh, and Dan, what about Winnipeg Transcona where the New Democrat MP won a hard fought battle against a Conservative by about the same margin as the Liberal victory in Winnipeg South Centre? [That would be Jim Maloway who, with 45.8 % of the vote beat 2nd place finisher Thomas Steen who took 40.7% of the vote – Akin] Yup, just keep on walking down the road without a sideways glance across the railroad tracks if you are the Conservative leader.

What an analysis, but is it really as “wise” as Lett himself characterizes his own advice?

Really, after the quick look and all of the fluff, isn’t this article just about Lett making sure that his Liberal candidate in Winnipeg South [Conservative MP Rod Bruinooge is the incumbent – Akin], Terry Duguid, is given another bit of glowing press, stating:

“If Duguid doesn’t win the riding, it won’t be for lack of effort. He remains perhaps the hardest-working candidate in the province, knocking on doors, organizing events and getting his name and picture in the media more than a lot of sitting MPs.”

Gee Dan, is it just my imagination, or is it usually in your articles where I ever see Duguid’s name? And I’m not even counting the times when you cite him as your “reliable unnamed source” when no one credible is willing to help you flog your pet theories and assorted conspiracies publicly. (Note to reader: I have to admit that I am naturally suspicious when a Winnipeg Free Press reporter calls an unnamed source “reliable”. Why not name the source and let the readers determine if he is “reliable”?)

But, getting back to your “quick examination” Dan, may I suggest you have another quick look at the rest of the electoral map of Manitoba? Let us know what you think of the other close races in the province. Not that I am actually interested in your analysis but I am curious if you can talk about them without mentioning your Liberal  colleague in Winnipeg South.

And a bit of friendly advice – if you are going to take another quick look at those ridings, perhaps you might want to check with your optometrist first to determine whether the rose coloured glasses you insist on wearing on the job impede your ability to determine what is actually going on around you.

Feds tighten up mortgage rules: That means a higher monthly payment but big interest savings

The federal government this morning announced new rules when it comes to taking out a mortgage or using your home as collateral to borrow more money.

The Department of Finance calls this “Supporting the long-term stability of Canada's housing market”.

There are three basic changes that will come into effect on March 18:

  • The maximum length of a government-insured mortgage will be 30 years, down from 35 years.
  • The government will no longer insure home equity lines of credits or HELOCs
  • If you want to borrow against your home, the maximum amount you can get will be 85 per cent of your home's assessed value, down from 90 per cent.

Here's the bottom line on these changes from BMO Senior economist Michael Gregory:

Before this weekend, the speculation had been that tighter mortgage insurance rules would be included in the upcoming federal budget. However, there is a risk that the budget could become a catalyst for a federal election (meaning the budget wouldn’t pass), and these measure were obviously deemed too important not to be passed and put in place for when Canada’s housing market wakens from its winter slumber in a couple months. For the new homebuyer, the reduced amortization is a significant change that should soften the demand for homes/mortgages below what they otherwise would have been. It also provides a bit more cover for the Bank of Canada; they don’t have to resort to policy rate hikes as readily to address high and rising household debt burdens, which would have dampening impacts well beyond just the housing sector (the BoC’s next policy decision comes tomorrow, but no policy rate hikes were expected).

Gregory also does some quick calculations to show how these changes will result in higher monthly mortgage payments but big-time savings over the life of a mortgage:

Assuming a $300,000 mortgage

 

Monthly payment Interest rate Total payments

 

Interest 30-year 35-year equivalent saved over life
rate amortization amortization Difference (35-year amort.) of mortgage
3% $1,265 $1,155 $110 64 bps $29,579
4% $1,432 $1,328 $104 56 bps $42,288
5% $1,610 $1,514 $96 49 bps $56,139
6% $1,799 $1,711 $88 43 bps $70,924
Source: BMO Capital Markets

Robert Lieberman: Why the Rich Are Getting Richer

Robert. C. Lieberman reviews Winner-Take-All Politics: How Washington Made the Rich Richer – and Turned Its Back on the Middle Class:

“Income inequality in the United States is higher than in any other advanced industrial democracy and by conventional measures comparable to that in countries such as Ghana, Nicaragua, and Turkmenistan.”

“The American system of separated powers — with its convoluted procedures and bizarre rules, such as vetoes and the filibuster — is especially conducive to drift, particularly compared to more streamlined parliamentary systems in other countries that afford majorities relatively unimpeded dominance over the policymaking process. Policies in the United States, once made, tend to be hard to overturn or even to modify.”

“In the 1990s, the Financial Accounting Standards Board, which regulates accounting practices, noticed this practice, correctly predicted the damage it would do to the economy, and then sought to curtail it. But Congress, spurred on by the lobbying efforts of major corporations, stopped the FASB in its tracks. As a result, Americans spent the 1990s and the first decade of this century living under 1970s accounting rules, which allowed top executives to more or less help themselves and, through the mutual back-scratching habits of corporate boards, help one another.”

[Read the full review]

Layton vows Afghanistan will be issue in next election; says Canada should be training bricklayers, not soldiers

NDP Leader Jack Layton is giving a speech this afternoon at the University of Ottawa, laying out his party's vision for a policy on Afghanistan. Here's a copy of the remarks he was to deliver:

Speaking notes
The Hon. Jack Layton, M.P. P.C.
Centre for International Policy Studies
University of Ottawa 
Friday, 14 January 2011

Canadian leadership: 

Beyond the military mission in Afghanistan

CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY

Thank you. And Happy New Year.

A new year — a new chance build a better world, to learn from past mistakes, to get on the right track. Of course, this is the year we expected to welcome our troops home from Afghanistan

Fully and finally. By vote of Parliament. Long overdue. Canada’s been in this war for nine years now. Six of those in a major combat role. Longer than the second world war.

In 2006, New Democrat members from coast to coast to coast passed a resolution to bring our troops home. We said this was the wrong mission for Canada —  the wrong way to bring stability to the people of Afghanistan.

Five years later, our conviction is the same. And more and more Canadians are feeling the same way. But Mr. Harper has just broken his promise to bring our troops home this year.

Instead, he has extended Canada’s military mission once again — based on a backroom deal with Michael Ignatieff, who actually proposed the idea.

They denied your elected Parliament any role in their decision to keep our soldiers there. This is anti-democratic. This is wrong. This is a failure of leadership.

Real leadership means putting Canadians and our values first — doing the right thing when it counts. Instead, we see Mr. Harper playing political games.

Enough is enough.

A decade in, Canadians take this personally. We care about Afghanistan. We want to offer some kind of hope to these battered people.

It’s going to take a different kind of leadership than we’ve seen from Stephen Harper or Michael Ignatieff.

And today, I’d like to suggest what that leadership will look like.

* * * * *

First, let’s look at the choice Mr. Harper has made.

Three more years on the ground — nearly a thousand soldiers — to help NATO build up a 300,000-strong Afghan security force.

When Mr. Harper says this is just a training exercise, he’s using semantics against common sense. Every Canadian knows what a  thousand pairs of boots on the ground means. This is a major military mission.

You know, even if we trusted Mr. Harper — even if we believed his wide-eyed claims that our soldiers will be safely sequestered in classrooms in Kabul — this would still be the wrong mission for Canada.

A month before Christmas, an Afghan security officer-in-training sat down to tea with American troops in Nangarhar province. Later that day, he broke out of a practice drill and gunned down six. The Taliban took credit for sending six more soldiers back to their families in flag-draped coffins.

Other Taliban fighters complete their NATO training before leaving to launch attacks against NATO or government targets.

Every year, one in five soldiers walks out of the Afghan National Army for good. How many of those are Taliban fighters — taking their training and weapons with them?  Even NATO admits the number may be high.

Imagine. You think you’re training government officers, but you’re really training insurgents as well. That’s reality in a war without two clear sides — where allegiances can be fluid, not always ideological.

But let’s play this out. Let’s imagine we could build a loyal, stable 300,000-strong security force.

Who would it serve?

Hamid Karzai’s government has lost the respect of the Afghan people. Instead of seeing their quality of life improve, people see a regime in Kabul that’s tied to rigged elections and rampant corruption.

Transparency Watch ranks Afghanistan 176th out of 178 countries for corruption. Half the aid money the world is pumping in is being lost to “consultants and corruption.”

That’s what Oxfam found. Kabul survives in part by paying off warlords — fuelling the frustrations of those left out — fuelling the insurgency against the government. A vicious, vicious cycle.

In November in Lisbon, Stephen Harper said he wouldn’t give another “dime” in aid directly to Karzai’s government because it is so corrupt. Think about that. Stephen Harper says he won’t trust Karzai with a dime, but he’d give him an army.

If this sounds like a plan that hasn’t been thought through — well, that seems to be literally true.

Canada had a plan. The military mission was ending. A civilian-only mission was set to begin. Then something happened: an announcement was made — a promise broken. And now Mr. Harper is making up the rest as he goes.

Look at the sequence here.

First, Mr. Harper announces the mission extension — says it’s vital.  Only then does he send a fact-finding team into Afghanistan to figure out what Canada might be able to do there.

This isn’t the first time Mr. Harper has justified a mission extension by emphasizing the training component.

But each time the result is the same: more combat, more casualties, not enough progress for Afghans.

And if Mr. Harper and Mr. Ignatieff get their way now, we will see more casualties — if not behind the wire, then when mission creep inevitably takes Canadian soldiers back outside the wire.

Mission creep has already started.

This week, NATO’s top training commander, General Caldwell, said that he wants to see Canadians back Kandahar — not safe in Kabul, as Mr. Harper is saying.  General Petraeus, the US war commander in Afghanistan, is already planting seeds of doubt about the 2014 mission end date.

Kandahar—not Kabul. 2014—for now. You see what’s going on here.

From the day Stephen Harper took office, he’s been talking about training and end-dates—but really pushing a military mission with no end in sight.

A mission that stops us from trying a new approach. A mission that is not doing enough to make life better for Afghans. A mission that’s not bringing Afghans any closer to their dream of a stable and peaceful existence.

There has to be a better way.

* * * * *

Canada may not be able to change NATO’s approach in Afghanistan. But we certainly don’t have to follow it blindly.

As Canadians, we make our own choices.

We’ve done our part for the military option.

Now the question is: What should we do going forward?

How should we honour the sacrifices we’ve already made?

What should Canada’s contribution be now?

How can we best help the people of Afghanistan now?

Is it by cutting Canadian aid in half, as Mr. Harper is doing?

Spending five times more on military might than nation-building?

Is it by teaching more young men to fire a gun — instead of rebuilding their country? Is that what Canada should be doing?

That’s not what we’re hearing from Scott Taylor of Esprit de Corps — hugely respected among rank-and-file soldiers.

That’s not what we’re hearing from the International Committee of the Red Cross.

That’s not what we’re hearing from ordinary Canadians.

What I hear people saying is this:

Instead of arming a regime that the people don’t respect, let’s try working with the people to rebuild a country.

That’s the New Democrat plan.

A plan to help build peace and improve lives — with an Afghan state that’s accountable to the people.

A plan that builds on Canada’s strengths and values.

A plan of practical solutions that I’ll share with you now.

* * * * *

Corporal Steve Martin, age 24, was the 154th Canadian soldier to die in Afghanistan. Thousands more are coming back to us wounded and traumatized. Yet even now, these women and men stand tall, ready to serve.

Whatever political stripes we wear, I think all Canadians can agree:

Canada’s soldiers are a cut above.

They have represented us with courage, professionalism and honour.

They have done more than their fair share in Afghanistan.

And it’s time to bring our troops home.

* * * * *

That military disengagement is the first essential step.

Only then can we do justice to step two: diplomacy.

Conservatives used to wail whenever anyone suggested “talking to the Taliban” to achieve peace. The world has left those backbenchers behind.

Now most people recognize that without negotiated reconciliation, Afghanistan has no hope for stability.

Decades of conflict have left Afghanistan with few institutions. After the Taliban, the vacuum was filled by a maze of local warlords —  some well-intentioned, some who rule by violence, some tied to the Taliban, some others paid off by Kabul.

There’s still no rule of law or effective justice system. No consequences for corrupt officials and strongmen who block progress toward democracy. And no way out for Afghans without negotiating those democratic institutions into existence.

Canada can play a leadership role here, sparking talks to build a stable Afghanistan — with accountable government, a justice system, legitimate elections.

With our experience in resolving conflicts, there’s a host of diplomatic roles we could play:

Pre-negotiating sticky local issues ahead of a wider peace process — isolating extremists by engaging moderates who fight for the Taliban not for ideology but to feed their families.

Making sure reconciliation includes ordinary people — especially women — not just warring factions and power players.

Coordinating a Regional Contact Group to challenge countries in the neighbourhood to take responsibility for this conflict.

Hammering out solutions for issues that fuel the conflict — from drug trafficking to terrorism to economic development.

Anyone watching up close knows that this work urgently needs doing — but nobody's leading the way yet.

One of those leaders can be Canada.

* * * * *

Finally, after military disengagement, alongside diplomacy: development.

Afghanistan is one of the world’s poorest countries.

One in two Afghans lacks adequate housing, water, electricity.

Half the Afghan population is now under 15 years of age.

They could be the generation that rebuilds Afghanistan — or they could form the next generation of desperate insurgents.

You cannot build a nation on a foundation of hunger and despair. For that, you need hope, education, public health, an economy.

Instead of cutting Afghan aid in half, Canada should be supporting more humanitarian and development work.

Not dumping money into corrupt channels, but supporting proven successes like the National Solidarity Program — undercutting corruption by helping communities identify, plan, and manage their own projects.

Supporting apprenticeship programs that teach young Afghans to lay bricks and build bridges — not just fire guns.

Helping Afghans take ownership over the process of building an economy and rebuilding a country.

Contributing to public health — including helping women’s organizations train female healthcare providers.

Our Foreign Affairs critic, Paul Dewar, updated me last month on one of the more successful humanitarian programs in Afghanistan.

You may have heard that seven million kids have now been vaccinated against polio.

Well, this is happening because UNICEF and the World Health Organization are negotiating access to Taliban-controlled areas.

What these development workers on the groun are telling us is that the absence of troops helps account for their success.

When they’re not tied to troops, they’re just not a target.

They’re building goodwill instead.

They’re pouring cold water on Mr. Harper’s mantra that you can’t do development work without overwhelming military security.

Security matters. But security comes with a justice system, not soldiers serving a corrupt regime. Security comes with the stability we’d help build through diplomacy, and development.

* * * * *

Would this new direction guarantee peace in Afghanistan?

Of course not.

Afghanistan is a hive of competing warlords, fiefdoms and histories.

Thirty years of bloody struggles. Three million dead.

Others have tried and failed to bring order.

There are no certainties here.

But this isn’t about certainty. This is about choices. And Canadians have choices to make now.

Even the hawks admit now that the insurgency won’t be pounded into submission.

What our plan offers is a new measure of hope for Afghans.

An approach ordinary Canadians can believe in.

If Canadians care about Afghanistan — and we do — then surely we owe it to ourselves to try.

* * * * *

Imagine living in a Canada where your Prime Minister makes you feel included, represented and proud.  Where your Prime Minister cares enough to do the right thing — even on something as tough as bringing stability to Afghanistan.

That’s what it should feel like to be a Canadian citizen. But that’s not the kind of leadership we’re getting from Stephen Harper — or from Michael Ignatieff, for that matter.

It may be years before we learn the full story about why Mr. Harper is breaking his promise to bring our troops home this year. It may be years before we learn how voices inside NATO caught his attention instead —what was said or bartered.

All we know is that the Prime Minister who promised to be different is delivering more of the same old politics. Listening to insiders instead of ordinary Canadians. Committing Canada to endless war, with Mr. Ignatieff’s help — to service interests he’s not even telling us about.

It doesn’t have to be this way.

To Mr. Harper and Mr. Ignatieff, I say: It’s not too late to bring our troops home this summer. It’s not too late to give Canadians the leadership they deserve. The kind of leadership we’re seen from New Democrats like Jack Harris (our Defence Critic) and Paul Dewar (Foreign Affairs Critic).

Before them: Dawn Black … Alexa McDonough.

And over the years, some of you in this room.

If you’ve questioned this war, you’ve born the insults.

Maybe even called a traitor.

Nobody should have to hear that.

I respect you for standing up for what’s right.

And our job is not done — there’s still work to do.

It’s time once again to stand up and be heard.

Here what I’m going to do.

Today, I’m launching a national campaign to take your voices to Ottawa.

I want you to be part of it.

When you leave here today, visit the NDP.CA website — sign our petition.

Talk to your friends. To your colleagues.

Speak up in class. Write letters to the editor. Call into those radio shows.

This is the time to say it: We won’t let our Prime Minister ignore us.  We won’t let him commit Canada to war without end.

Stephen Harper, bring our troops home.

We choose a new role for Canada to bring hope to Afghanistan.

If Canadians speak out loudly enough — if we make this uncomfortable enough for Mr. Harper — he’ll feel the pressure to change course.

And if he chooses not to, then let me tell you.

I will make this an issue in the next election .

To make sure Canadians’ voices are heard in Ottawa. ¬

So when we gather here again next year, or a decade from now, we won’t be staring into the black hole of yet another mission extension.

Instead, we’ll be saying, “My God, that was hard. But the fight was worth it. And Canada’ s finally doing what we should be doing in Afghanistan.”

Thank you.

 

Reasons not to have a federal election 'til next year: The MP Pension angle

A significant number of MPs will have a personal stake in any votes this year that could precipitate a federal election and risk their re-election: Their MP's pension.

If — and it's still a big if — the Harper government survives through February, 2012, then those MPs elected for the first time in the January, 2006 general election will qualify for their pensions.

MPs pensions are calculated based on their five best earning years and they lock in after six years of service. So, your garden variety backbencher earns about $157,000 a year and, based on earning just that every year, would qualify in year six for a lifetime pension of $27,000 a year once they reach the age of 55. MPs can earn more money depending on their parliamentary and caucus work. The prime minister, for example, gets an extra $157,000 a year on top of his regular MP's salary. The Leader of the Official Opposition and cabinet ministers get an extra $75,000 or so on top of their base salary.  Vice-chairs of parliamentary commitees get an extra $5,684 a year for that work. Parliament's Web site lists all the extra salaries that can be earned on top of a basic MP's salary.

According to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, which has been a fierce critic of the MP pension plan,  “An MP earns three per cent for each year of service times the average of the best five years of earnings. For even the most junior back bench MP, this means the plan pays out a pension (in 2010 dollars) of a minimum of $28,000 a year. For every dollar an MP contributes taxpayers contribute between $4.50 and $7. The plan is also indexed for life. Right now it is indexed at 3.3 per cent a year, which is two to three times the rate of inflation.”

The MP class of 2006 includes lots of cabinet members: Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, Government House Leader John Baird, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon, Industry Minister Tony Clement, and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Josée Verner.

The class of 2006 also includes Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. (The three other party leaders long ago qualified for their MP pension).

There are now 54 MPs in the House of Commons who were first elected in the 2006 general election. They include nine Bloc Quebecois MPs and seven NDP MPs. Independent MP André Arthur is also part of the class of 2006.

One other interesting note: Should the federal election be held in October 2012 , as per our fixed election date schedule, then Liberal MP Glen Pearson will be a month shy of his six years of his service as he came to Parliament in a byelection held Nov. 27, 2006.

The Parliamentary Web site contains a list of all MPs based on their length of service.