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Here comes the coalition again: NDP candidate quits in London, calls it "a strategic decision" to stop Harper

Our friends at the London Free Press are reporting this morning that the NDP candidate in Elgin-Middlesex-London resigned today. NDPer Ryan Dolby said he made “a strategic decision” to quit because “I am worried if Stephen Harper gets a majority.” This, I'm pretty sure, guarantees that the whole “coalition” meme is going to pop back up on the campaign trail for the leaders.

Indeed, Free Press reporter Randy Richmond has already tweeted that the Conservative incumbent in Elgin-Middlesex-London, Joe Preston, has already call this evidence of a coalition.

The NDP still has plenty of time to find a candidate. The deadline from Elections Canada to file the papers to become an Official Candidate for the May 2 vote is not until April 11.

Still, based on the results of the 2008 election, if every Liberal voted Liberal again, and every NDP voter from '08 voted Liberal, Preston would still win by more than 2,500 voters if all his voters showed up.

Meanwhile, the NDP National Campaign says Dolby's decision is unfortunate and that they'll have a nomination meeting in that riding within 48 hours. They are running candidates in all 308 ridings.

Harper then and now on the choices for an unhappy Official Opposition

In 2004, Opposition Leader Stephen Harper was not happy with the current state of Parliamentary Affairs and he wrote a letter to then Governor General Adrienne Clarkson in which he said, in part:

“We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority.”

But today, outside the residence of the current Governor General David Johnston, Harper said an unhappy official opposition leader has only one option:

“First of all you don’t try and form a government if you lost the election. That is not legitimate. If Canadians elect the other party, even by a minority you respect that judgement. It is illegitimate to attempt to overturn that and if you want to overturn it, you go back to the people and get a mandate to do so. “

What Harper actually did in 2004 is very different than what Dion actually did in 2008.

But Harper in 2004 had “lost the election” and yet was seeking some kind of “options” other than an election to supplant Martin as prime minister. In 2011, Harper seems to say there is only one thing an Opposition leader can do if he doesn't like the government — “you go back to the people and get a mandate.” But in 2004, he was cautioning Clarkson that before “a request for dissolution”, she should consider “all your options.”

 

The first batch of polls have much in common, despite oddly different numbers

A batch of new polls popped up just as the government was falling Friday and the country's 41st general election was about to get underway. The polls are unanimous on this issue: Harper and the Conservatives are out in front; the Liberals are second, followed by the NDP and then the Greens. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is the heavy favourite.

And yet, each pollster — Ipsos Reid, Ekos, Angus Reid, and Leger — all have substantially different actually numbers. Let's take a look:

Poll Comparisons

Why so different? I'm no professional pollster (and they are probably best positioned to answer that) but I would say that, though they purport to measure the same thing — i.e. voter intention — they each used substantially different methodologies to do that. EKOS, for example, was out in the field from March 17 to March 24 while Ipsos was just March 23 and 24. One thing, then, to consider is: All of Ipsos survey respondents would have had information about the federal budget March 22 while only some of Ekos respondents had that information. Would that have influenced voter intention? The other two polls were also out in the field over slightly different time periods.

Each pollster contacts survey participants differently. Some use an online panel, some use old-fashioned phone calls; some use a mix.

The precision of these numbers will, I think, be more important closer to polling day on May 2.

But for now, one way that it seems useful to me to “interrogate” these numbers is rather than compare pollster-to-pollster, what might we learn if we compared each firm's previous poll to each firm's current poll? In between polls, a lot might have happened that one might think would influence the numbers. The Bruce Carson scandal, contempt of Parliament hearings,  the federal budget are just three.

Now I don't have (or can't find) a comparable Leger poll but let's take a look at the other three firms, all of which were in the field at the beginning of March for polls released around March 10 or so.

Pollsters

Well, look at that. All three pollsters found that despite a budget and some heat over ethics issues, Tory support remained unchanged. One pollster found Liberal support unchanged; one found a bump; one found a slight drop. The Liberal changes are all within the margin of error so probably safe to say Liberal support is largely unchanged. Same with the NDP and Greens.

In other words, NOTHING happened through the middle of March that seemed to get a voter angered/excited enough to change their mind about who to vote for!

Let's see if these election campaigns will change that.

 

NDP: Campaign opening statement

Delivered by Jack Layton in Ottawa:

My friends, five years ago, Stephen Harper was elected on a promise that he’d do things differently.  He promised to work with others to fix what was wrong in Ottawa.

He said he’d make your life more affordable.  He made it more expensive.

He said he’d make your healthcare a priority.  He’s ignored it for five years.

He promised he’d finally clean up Liberal-style scandals.  Instead, just created new scandals of his own.

After five years, Stephen Harper has failed to fix what’s wrong in Ottawa.  In fact, he’s made it worse.

You’re working harder than ever.  Your household debt is at an all-time high.  Your retirement is less secure.  And nothing’s being done for you.

What does all this mean?

Ottawa is broken.  And it’s time for us to fix it.

It’s time to fix it for Janet, who I spoke with in Edmonton.  She’s caring for her mother with Alzheimer’s at home, and is drawing money from her hard-earned retirement fund just to get by.

It’s time to fix it for Tanya in Saskatoon who is no longer able to keep up with the cost of housing, daycare and groceries.  She’s working harder than ever but still relies on a food bank to feed her family.

It’s time to fix it for the hard-working employees of Electrolux, a company that took Mr. Harper’s corporate tax giveaway – and then announced they were shipping 1300 jobs from Canada to Memphis.

My friends, we’ve got to do better.

In this election, you can elect a Prime Minister you can count on.

A Prime Minister who will help your family get ahead.  Someone who will put aside political games and work with others to get things done.

I’m running to be that Prime Minister.

Because I want to bring some Canadian leadership to Ottawa.

The leadership I saw in my Dad.  He was a Progressive Conservative cabinet minister, and he taught me the value of bringing people together, of seeing the good in everyone.  Of building a better country for our children and grandchildren.

My Dad and my Mom committed to leaving this country better off for their kids.

That’s a value I share.  It’s a value that so many Canadians share.

I’m joined today by my daughter Sarah and my granddaughter Beatrice.

And it’s my commitment to all our children and grandchildren that drives me each and every day.

That work starts in this election – one practical step at a time.

Here’s how:

First, I’ll give your family a break – not just the well-connected, like Mr. Harper has done.

Throughout this recession, you’ve worked hard to keep your family from falling behind.  You’re paying more for everyday essentials like home heating, gas and groceries.

And on top of it all, Stephen Harper made tougher for you and your family – raising sales taxes during some pretty tough times.

In this election, I will put forward concrete proposals to take the strain off your family budget and make everyday essentials less expensive.  And I’ll help those who have been completely left behind by Mr. Harper – seniors and children living in poverty.

Second, I’ll reward the job creators in our economy – not those shipping jobs overseas, as Mr. Harper has done.

New Democrats will give small businesses a boost, and target investments to those creating jobs right here at home.  I’ll stop the subsidies to the big polluters and invest that money to foster the new energy economy.

Third, I’ll focus on families that are simultaneously caring for their aging parents and working to build a future for their children – the ever-increasing sandwich generation.

New Democrats will take affordable steps to strengthen the pensions and retirement savings that Canadians rely on.  We’ll put forward a do-able plan to ensure families have access to child-care and education.  And we’ll give working families the flexibility to care for a sick or aging relative.

Finally, I will put forward practical solutions that will improve your front line health services.

I never thought I’d see the day where a Canadian hospital would have to use their coffee shop as an emergency room.  Well it’s happened.

Under Stephen Harper, we’ve seen hospital hallway medicine graduate to Tim Horton’s healthcare.

We need Canadian leadership on health care – right now.

The Prime Minister you elect on May 2 will negotiate the next health care accord with the provinces and territories.  With something as important as your family’s health at stake, I’ll be asking you – who do you trust to lead those discussions?  Who do you trust to improve your health care services?

When it comes to strengthening health care, I won’t stop until the job’s done.

My friends, I’m ready to serve as your Prime Minister.   And my team is ready too.

New Democrats have grown as the needs and priorities of Canadians have grown.  Today’s New Democrats are focused on middle-class families and ready to work for you – in parliament and in cabinet.

And so I’m asking Canadians to join with me to defeat Stephen Harper – regardless of who you’ve voted for in the past.

If you’ve voted Liberal before but have some doubt about the latest leader, Michael Ignatieff – you’re not alone.

Mr. Ignatieff’s words don’t match his actions.  And he’s betting you don’t notice.  He’s betting you don’t care.  Mr. Ignatieff, saying one thing after doing another is not Canadian leadership.

If you’ve voted Bloc in the past, I invite you to help me replace this Conservative government.

The last two elections have shown a vote for the Bloc can’t stop Stephen Harper from becoming Prime Minister.  It can’t stop him from implementing an agenda that most Quebecers are against.

This time, we have to do something different.  This time, it’s not enough to keep Stephen Harper from his majority.  This time we have to replace him.

I know that Canadians want someone in Ottawa who’ll work with others and get things done.

I’m proud of what New Democrats have been able to accomplish by working together.  These accomplishments are the cornerstone of the leadership I’m offering in this election.

I’m asking for a mandate to lead the next government.  And if that’s a minority Parliament, as Prime Minister you can count on me to reach out to all Members of Parliament who believe in building a better Canada.

Together we will provide an alternative to a Harper-led government.  Whether it’s on a case-by-case basis, as been done over the past 5 years or more stable arrangements, I will work with the mandate you give me.

This is a key difference between Stephen Harper and me.

Stephen Harper sees co-operation as a weakness.

I view it as a very Canadian strength.

And while Stephen Harper helped insiders and the well-connected through this recession.

I say now it’s your turn.

And so I’ll stop the divisive political games, and bring your Members of Parliament together to deliver results for you.

My friends, in this election we’re going to fix what’s broken in Ottawa.  And we’re going to do it the way that only New Democrats can – by defeating Conservatives right across Canada.

And I can tell you that I’m ready to take this fight direct to the Conservative heartland.  Starting tonight in Edmonton – where we’ve shown that only New Democrats are strong enough to defeat the Conservatives.

In British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba – where only New Democrats defeat Conservatives.

And throughout Ontario and Atlantic Canada – there is a new alternative to Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.

In Quebec we will invite those who have voted Bloc to stop Stephen Harper to vote for me to replace him.

Together, my friends, we can get down to work to build the Canada we want.

A Canada where we help each other through tough times, where families come first, where nobody is left behind.

We’re all in this together.

It’s time to roll up our sleeves to make it happen – because that’s Canadian leadership.

Thank you.

Green Party: Campaign opening statement

Delivered today by Elizabeth May, Leader of the Green Party:

The people of Saanich-Gulf Islands are poised to make history, sending a fresh new voice into Canadian Parliament and changing Canadian politics forever by electing a Green MP for the first time. The voters here and across Canada will send a strong message with their votes. A message of hope for better. A demand for responsible debate and an end to the negative attack politics.

 

During this campaign you will see and hear Green Party candidates from coast to coast to coast talking about our vision for a smart economy, for strong communities and for true democracy. Once I am elected, I will be relentless in raising issues that are rarely if ever heard in Canadian Parliament for a different sort of politics in this country – for an unprecedented expansion of sustainable businesses, technologies and jobs for the future, for greater civility, cooperation and accountability in our democracy, and for strong communities that put people and ecosystems first.

Liberals: Opening campaign statement

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff opening campaign statement:

This election is not just an exercise in democracy, it’s about democracy.  So as we begin the campaign, let’s be clear about the rules.

Whoever leads the party that wins the most seats on election day should be called on to form the government.

If that is the Liberal Party, then I will be required to rapidly seek the confidence of the newly-elected Parliament.   If our government cannot win the support of the House, then Mr. Harper will be called on to form a government and face the same challenge.  That is our Constitution.  It is the law of the land.

If, as Leader of the Liberal Party, I am given the privilege of forming the government, these are the rules that will guide me:

We will face Parliament with exactly the same team, platform and agenda that we bring to Canadians during this election. What Canadians see in this campaign is what Canadians will get if we are asked to form government.

We will work with ALL parties to make Parliament work, and deliver sound policies – even the Conservative Party in opposition.

We will not enter a coalition with other federalist parties.   In our system, coalitions are a legitimate constitutional option. However, I believe that issue-by-issue collaboration with other parties is the best way for minority Parliaments to function.

We categorically rule out a coalition or formal arrangement with the Bloc Quebecois.

If I am facing a minority Parliament, I will work like Liberal Prime Ministers Lester Pearson, Pierre Trudeau and Paul Martin did:  to provide progressive government to our country, by building support issue-by-issue, and by tapping into the goodwill, generosity and common sense of Canadians across the political spectrum.  These are the governments that gave Canada the Canadian Flag, Medicare, the Canada Pension Plan, the Kelowna Accord and a National Daycare Plan.  With the right kind of leadership another minority Parliament could strive for such heights.

That is my position.  Now I have a few questions for Mr. Harper:

Does he agree with how I have described the workings of our democratic system?

Why does he insist on fabricating lies about an impending coalition, something he knows is false?

Will he tell Canadians the truth about his secret hotel room meetings in 2004 with the Bloc Quebecois which resulted in a signed letter of agreement to the Governor General, proposing a Conservative-NDP-Bloc coalition?

Will he finally acknowledge the unprecedented finding of contempt against his government yesterday in the House of Commons?

 

Conservatives: Opening campaign statement

Delivered by Prime Minister Stephen Harper outside Rideau Hall this morning:

Good morning.

In light of yesterday’s disappointing events I met with His Excellency the Governor General, and he has agreed that Parliament should be dissolved.

Before I say anything else, I would like to begin by thanking Canadians for the confidence and trust they have given me and my colleagues over the past five years.

It has been a privilege and honour to serve as Prime Minister of the best country in the world as together we faced the most difficult days of the global economic recession.

At the same time, because of the great challenges that still confront us I understand that our job is not done.

Today the world economy remains fragile.  The risk of a new international debt crisis is still with us.  Armed conflict, political turmoil and humanitarian disasters in the Middle East and elsewhere have serious potential consequences for the global recovery.

Against this backdrop of growing economic risk, and against our advice, the opposition parties have chosen to force an election the country doesn’t want; an election the economy doesn’t need.

They have deliberately chosen to halt the implementation of the Next Phase of our Economic Action Plan, a plan that has thus far allowed Canada to emerge from the global recession in a much better position than most other countries.

To my fellow Canadians I say this: the opposition parties have made their choice.  Now we Canadians get to make ours.

On May the 2nd, we will choose between stable national government and a reckless Coalition; between a low-tax plan for jobs and growth, and a high-tax agenda that will stall our recovery, kill jobs and set families back.

Canadians need to understand clearly, without any ambiguity: unless Canadians elect a stable, national majority, Mr. Ignatieff will form a Coalition with the NDP and Bloc Québécois.  They tried it before.  It is clear they will try it again.  And, next time, if given the chance, they will do it in a way that no one will be able to stop.

We need to ensure that our government is stable, national and wholly committed to the unity of our country.

Imagine a coalition of arch-centralists and Quebec sovereignists trying to work together.

The only thing they’ll be able to agree on is to spend more money and to raise taxes to pay for it.  We’ve all got too much at stake.  Now is not the time for political instability.

Now is not the time for economic uncertainty.  And now is most certainly not the time for higher taxes.

For Conservatives, economic recovery is our focus; economic recovery is our plan; and we will continue to use each and every day of a renewed mandate to complete our economic recovery, to provide growth, jobs and financial security for Canadian families.

The outcome of this election will therefore impact each and every Canadian with a job to find or a job to keep; a home to buy or a mortgage to pay; a retirement to fund or a business to build.

During this campaign, our focus will be on these Canadians: real people with real priorities who never wanted this election in the first place, who only want the economic recovery to be completed and political stability in Ottawa so they can have financial security at home.

We will be asking Canadians for a renewed mandate to:

Implement the Next Phase of Canada’s world-leading Economic Action Plan to protect and create jobs as outlined in the Budget.

To make life easier and more affordable for working families, the people who work hard and play by the rules.

To make our streets safer, putting the rights of victims ahead of criminals.

And to stand on guard for our country by cracking down on human smuggling and strengthening our Arctic sovereignty.

Canada is coming out of the global economic crisis with a clear economic advantage.

Today, the world looks to Canada.  And this is something we should all be proud of.  We can protect this advantage.  We can complete our economic recovery.  And we can keep taxes down.

And so I ask Canadians for their support.  I ask Canadians: who can deliver the stable national government that Canada needs to complete our economic recovery and keep taxes down?

Thank you.

Bloc Quebecois: Opening campaign statement

Issued by the Bloc Quebecois press office earlier today, here is leader Gilles Duceppe's opening statement:

Bonjour,

Si nous sommes aujourd’hui en campagne électorale, c’est que Stephen Harper a tout fait pour provoquer des élections. Le chef conservateur veut obtenir une majorité pour imposer son idéologie, sans aucune limite. Pour y arriver, les conservateurs n’ont pas hésité à mener des assauts répétés contre les principes mêmes de la démocratie.

Le chef conservateur a érigé le mensonge et la tromperie en système de gouvernement. Stephen Harper n’a que faire de la vérité. Faisant preuve d’un manque d’intégrité sans borne, le gouvernement Harper a multiplié les nominations partisanes et il est accusé de patronage et de trafic d’influence.

Le Parti conservateur est poursuivi en justice pour avoir violé la loi. Élections Canada parle d’un système prémédité de fraude électorale. Des enquêtes criminelles sont en cours sur un ancien conseiller de Stephen Harper et un autre, de Christian Paradis.

Une ministre a menti aux élus et à la population; le gouvernement a caché la vérité sur les coûts et les effets négatifs de ses politiques. C’est ainsi que le gouvernement Harper a été condamné pour outrage au Parlement, une première dans l’histoire canadienne. Cette condamnation était pleinement méritée, car il n’y avait aucune circonstance atténuante.

Autre mensonge : le chef conservateur a dit qu’il ne voulait pas d’élections, mais il n’a pas hésité pas à orchestrer une campagne publicitaire de 26 millions avec l’argent public.

Le chef conservateur a dit qu’il ne voulait pas d’élections, mais il a conçu le budget de telle façon qu’aucun parti d’opposition ne puisse l’appuyer. Face au Québec, c’est encore pire. Le budget confirme que Stephen Harper a fait une croix sur le Québec.

Les conservateurs ont refusé de rendre justice au Québec comme ils l’ont fait pour l’Ontario, la Colombie-Britannique et les provinces atlantiques sur la question de l’harmonisation des taxes de vente. En tout, les conservateurs ont privé le Québec de 5 milliards de dollars, soit l’équivalent de 2 500 dollars par famille de quatre.

Les conservateurs ont refusé de soutenir nos économies régionales et l’industrie forestière. Pourtant, ils n’ont pas hésité à déverser des milliards pour aider l’industrie de l’auto en Ontario. Stephen Harper a donné des milliards aux banques et aux grandes pétrolières. Mais il n’a pas le cœur d’aider ceux et celles qui ont perdu leur emploi. Le comble, c’est que le gouvernement conservateur veut encore piger des milliards dans la caisse d’assurance-emploi. Niant nos aspirations, indifférents à nos intérêts et opposés à nos valeurs, les conservateurs ont tourné le dos aux Québécoises et aux Québécois.

Pour toutes ces raisons, Stephen Harper et son gouvernement ne sont pas dignes de confiance. Les conservateurs ont été sanctionnés par les élus. Ils ne méritent pas non plus la confiance de la population.

En vue des élections du 2 mai, nous nous retrouvons face à un danger encore plus grand. Le risque que Stephen Harper obtienne une majorité est bien réel. Si cela arrivait, les conservateurs n’auront plus aucune retenue. Ils seront libres d’imposer, sans frein, des politiques idéologiques contraires à nos intérêts et à nos valeurs. Il y a là une véritable menace pour le Québec.

L’ordre du jour conservateur est chargé :

  • une politique étrangère belliqueuse;
  • des milliards de dépenses militaires supplémentaires;
  • la protection des intérêts des grandes pétrolières;
  • toujours plus de prisons et d’armes à feu;
  • des assauts répétés contre l’environnement, contre les plus démunis, contre les femmes, contre la vérité et contre la démocratie.

Une majorité de Stephen Harper, ça signifie la négation complète de ce que nous sommes, nous, les Québécois. Cela signifie de nouvelles attaques contre la culture québécoise. Une majorité de Stephen Harper, cela signifie que nos intérêts économiques seront complètement ignorés, et nos régions, encore plus délaissées.

Heureusement, nous

ouvons empêcher cela. Si toutes les Québécoises et tous les Québécois conscients de ce danger s’unissent, nous pourrons faire obstacle à Stephen Harper. Au Québec, le seul parti capable de lui barrer la route, c’est le Bloc Québécois. Notre parti est également le seul à parler pour le Québec, d’abord et avant tout. Et pour nous, Québécoises et Québécois, la seule façon d’obtenir gain de cause à Ottawa, c’est de parler du Québec, de nos besoins, de notre réalité et de nous tenir debout, avec fierté.

À Ottawa, le Québec et sa différence dérangent. Les partis canadiens voudraient que nous ne soyons qu’une province comme les autres, que la nation québécoise rentre dans le rang. Nous sommes les seuls à nous battre contre ça.

Ce qui distingue le Bloc des autres partis, c’est qu’eux parlent Canada, alors que nous parlons Québec. Eux sont présents en Saskatchewan, au Manitoba, à Terre-Neuve. Nous sommes présents dans toutes les villes et tous les villages du Québec. Eux défendent les intérêts du Canada. Nous défendons les intérêts du Québec, les intérêts des gens d’ici. Eux défendent les valeurs canadiennes. Nous défendons les valeurs québécoises, notre identité, notre langue et notre culture. Au Canada, il n’y a plus aucune ouverture face aux aspirations et valeurs du Québec. La fermeture du Canada à l’endroit du Québec s’est amplifiée sous les conservateurs, qui l’ont consacrée.

Ces élections sont donc très importantes pour le Québec. Nous devons à la fois protéger notre identité, défendre nos intérêts et nos valeurs en tant que Québécois et barrer la route à Stephen Harper. Face au danger d’une majorité conservatrice, je lance un appel à tous ceux et à toutes celles qui ont à cœur l’avenir du Québec : joignez-vous à nous. Joignez-vous à ces femmes et ces hommes qui portent la bannière du Bloc Québécois. Des gens honnêtes, près du monde, respectueux de la démocratie et qui parlent vrai. Vous, qui dans tous les coins du Québec œuvrez tous les jours à la prospérité économique et à l’épanouissement de notre nation, nous avons besoin de votre appui pour promouvoir avec force les intérêts économiques de nos régions, de nos villes et de nos villages.

Le Québec doit demeurer le plus fort possible à Ottawa. Nous devons faire face à la menace conservatrice en formant un bloc uni. Ici, au Québec, si nous voulons vraiment faire une différence, il faut rejoindre le Bloc Québécois, le seul parti capable de barrer la route à Stephen Harper. Nous pouvons protéger notre identité, nos valeurs et nos intérêts. Joignez-vous au Bloc Québécois et, ensemble. »

Liberals lose a Quebec candidate

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff will begin the country's 41st general election campaign and his first campaign as a party leader in Ottawa with rally. He'll then head to Montreal and be there overnight Saturday. As Ignatieff heads to the province of Quebec, he'll be greeted by the news that his candidate in the riding of Quebec, currently held by Bloc Quebecois MP Christiane Gagnon, has packed it in on the very day the Harper government fell:

Coup de théâtre dans la circonscription de Québec où Anne Gagné, candidate libérale désignée depuis le 14 décembre 2009, a jeté l’éponge avant même le déclenchement officiel du scrutin fédéral.

La nouvelle, tombée hier matin, est d’autant plus surprenante que Mme Gagné fut omniprésente au cours de différents événements publics des 15 derniers mois. Elle y affichait systématiquement son goût d’en découdre électoralement, le plus rapidement possible, avec la députée bloquiste sortante Christiane Gagnon, élue à Québec depuis 1993.

[Read the rest of the story]

The one and only vote to bring down the Harper government

There are a lot Parliamentary hijinks happening this afternoon which I'll try to explain in a minute. For those you not named Kady O'Malley (I tease because I like!) let me cut to the chase:

The next and last vote of the Parliament (barring some routine procedural votes) will be Friday at about 1:30 pm on the following motion, tabled today by the Liberals:

“That the House agrees with the finding of the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs that the Government is in contempt of Parliament, which is unprecedented in Canadian Parliamentary history, and consequently, the House has lost confidence in the Government.”

All three opposition parties will vote in favour of this motion and that will be that for the 40th Parliament.

And now for those of you, like my friend Kady, who have an abiding interest in all things Parliamentary …

What about a vote in the House of Commons that will find the government in contempt of Parliament? What about some votes on the budget presented by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty? What about votes on those supplementary estimates? Ain't never gonna happen.

Here's why.

This afternoon in the House of Commons, MPs began debating “concurrence” in the contempt report from the Procedure and House Affairs Commitee (PROC). Under the procedural rules, three hours of House of Commons time is allotted for that debate. At the end of that debate, MPs will vote to “concur” with that report which would mean that, for the first time ever, a government would be found in contempt of Parliament.

But there is simply not enough time in the House of Commons calendar today to squeeze in three hours of debate before the House adjourns at 5:30 p.m.

Under the rules, it is up to the government to schedule the remainder of time of debate on the contempt report and its subsequent vote. But the government can reschedule that any time over the next 10 sitting days. That will never happen because this Parliament ends Friday.

So bottom line here: This government will never be found in contempt of Parliament.

The opposition parties are happy with this — and are putting up speakers to run out the clock to 5:30 — because of another procedural side effect of spending all day today debating the contempt report, that being, we will not get to to any votes on the budget becausethose votes cannot happen at least until the second day of debate on the budget.

Had the House of Commons spent even 30 seconds today debating the budget, today would have been declared the first day of budget debate. The Conservatives were trying to do that, one more little way to show they are “focused on the economy.”

So on Thursday, we will have our first day of budget debate. Under Parliamentary rules, on the first day of budget debate (which now is not today) the Official Opposition (the Liberals) introduces a motion on the budget. Also on the first day of budget debate, the Bloc Quebecois gets to introduce a sub-amendment on that Liberal motion. MPs then spend the day debating the budget but the votes, by rule, on the Liberal motion and the BQ sub-amendment are held on the second day of budget debate. That day, too, will never come because Parliament will end on Friday.

Friday is a special kind of day in the Parliamentary calendar. It is known as a supply day and it is the last possible day that this particular supply day can be held. By rule, all other House business — such as the second day of budget debate or anything else — is put off until this supply day is done. The day will be spent debating the motion that the Liberals tabled today (the one at the top of this post) and then, at 1:30 p.m., three different votes are scheduled.

The first vote will be on the Liberal non-confidence motion. The second and third are votes on routine money bills that give the government the authority to spend money over the next few months. Those two money bills are also, by definition, confidence votes because they are related to the budget. But because the Liberal motion is first up the House will have declared no confidence in the government making votes on those money bills a moot point.

Why do the opposition parties like the way this unfolds? Largely because they will have been able to say: At the first opportunity they had this (even though it's an opportunity they kind of engineered) they voted to bring down the government.