The only good news in Statistics Canada's monthly jobs report was that it was not as grim as some had expected. Still — it was as grim as most expected. More than 61,000 Canadians lost their jobs in March, the fifth month in a row, and our unemployment rate is now 8 per cent.
Dawn Desjardins, the assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank looked at the numbers and says:
The unemployment rate has risen at a staggering pace from a generational low of 5.8% at the beginning of 2008 to 6.6% at the end of the year and 8% at the end of the first quarter of 2009. This pace of increase clearly outflanked the rise in the unemployment rate during the economic slowdown earlier this decade (it increased to 8% from 6.7%) but is less than the 4.8 to 5.8 percentage point increase recorded in the early 1980s and 1990s recessions. That being said, we expect the unemployment rate to continue to move higher in the months ahead given the weak state of the economy and persistent uncertainty in financial markets.
However, with the considerable monetary policy and fiscal stimulus hitting up in Canada, we believe conditions are in place for the economy to start to recover mid-year especially if the nascent signs of stability in the US economic and financial markets build momentum. All eyes are on the Bank's statement on April 21 which will deliver the framework for quantitative and credit easing and we look for policymakers to reiterate their commitment to keeping interest rates low until the economy is growing sufficiently strong to close the output gap and limit downside risks to the inflation outlook.
Here's CIBC World Markets Avery Shenfeld:
We’ve reached much higher jobless rates in past recessions, but the pace of employment losses, with a further 61,000 in March extending a more than 2% drop since October, is consistent with a severe recession.
It is going to get much much worse, esp in the USA. Start buying Gold and silver and read Peter Schiff.