I asked my good friends at the TD Bank's economics department if they could give me some key benchmarks that might let us compare the other two great recent recessions that Canada went through — most economists I've talked to say the worst years we've had prior to this one were 1981 and 1991 — against the current recession. The key takeaway here, as you may have heard, is that we are in much, much better shape to weather a recession than we were in 1981 and 1991. Here's the benchmark averages for the years prior to the worst recession year:
Inflation
- 2008: 2.37 %
- 1990: 4.78 %
- 1980: 10.13%
Unemployment rate:
- 2008: 6.1 %
- 1990: 8.2 %
- 1980: 7.6%
Exchange rate ($CDN need to purchase 1 US$)
- 2008: 1.0671
- 1990: 1.1668
- 1980 (Dec. 19): 1.1692
Crude Oil (in constant 2008 dollars)
- 2008: $100.16
- 1990: $35.61
- 1980: $96.84
CIBC Prime Rate (this data set is courtesy the Parliament of Canada. CIBC's Prime Rate could be expected to largely mirror the prime rate of every other major Canadian bank)
- 2008 (Dec. 10): 3.5%
- 1990 (Dec 21): 12.75 %
- 1980 (Dec. 19): 18.25%
And now, here are the forecasts for 2009 for each of those variables except Prime:
- Inflation: 0.50 %
- Unemployment: 7.7%
- Exchange rate: $1.2060
- Crude oil: $36.07
Thanks, David. It's refreshing to read some facts rather than the doom-and-gloom, Apocalypse-is-coming scenarios that most journalists are indulging in these days. Hopefully you will be able to put these stastics into a newspaper article.