Here is Derek Burleton, an associate vice-president and director of economic analysis at the TD Bank, writing today about the country's economic outlook:
In the job market, some 325,000 jobs are expected to be shed on a net basis this year, pushing the unemployment rate towards 8.8%.
Here is the first paragraph from an annex in one of the budget documents, “Economic Action Plan: Employment and Output Impacts”:
… the measures in this budget will boost real GDP by 1.4 per cent by the end of 2010, which translates into about 140,000 jobs created or maintained. Including funds leveraged from other orders of government, the impact on real GDP is estimated to be 1.9 per cent by the end of 2010, translating into almost 190,000 jobs created or maintained.
So, just to review:
- Jobs to be lost this year: 325,000
- Government job creation target: 190,000
Meanwhile, the Commons Finance Committee will hear evidence tomorrow from Kevin Page, the Parliamentary Budget Officer. Page may have some comments about the size and effectiveness of the government's stimulus plan and its impact on job creations.
Hi David,
I wonder if that figure of 190,000 includes jobs that won't be lost because of the stimulus package? Likewise, I'm wondering if that 325,000 figure includes the same.
I guess what I'm getting at, is if that's the case, it could all balance out. But then again, who knows and who can say for sure?
Burleton's forecast takes into account the effects of the budget's stimulative effects. So those job loss predictions are after the budget has done its work.
Sorry David, my bad. I misread.