Two datapoints out this morning that might give us pause as the federal government prepares to release the hounds of spending.
First, the economics department at the T-D Bank says that ” despite perceptions of tightening conditions, bank credit continues to flow at a strong pace to households and firms.” The report, written by the bank's deputy chief economist Craig Alexander and economist Grant Bishop, concludes that “business credit expanded by 13.2% Y/Y in December fuelled by Canadian-denominated business loans and much expanded reliance on Bankers’ Acceptances.”
Business lobbies such as the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters and the Canadian Federation of Independent Business have been saying for weeks that credit for many of their members is drying up.
Second, the Conference Board of Canada today reports that consumer confidence is up this month. That's right — up! It's not up much but the board's survey found that an increasing number of Canadians are feeling better about their financial situation and are considering purchasing big-ticket items.
So basically Flaherty's attempt to pin the blame on the banks has fallen flat on its face and consumers are feeling a little better now that the Conservatives are no longer saying 'what problems'.
Oh, groan! Can we all please grow up? Can we stop with the blame games, and who gets to wear what – like who's going to wear this recession?
If consumer confidence is up, it is a miracle, because all we've been hearing from all the experts crawling out of every nook and cranny in this blessed country are the pundits, the analysts, the interest groups, the lobbyists, the blogosphere (yes, me too!), the talk show hosts, the man on the street interviewees, and everyone's grandmother – all and sundry have been talking down the economy into a downward spiral.
The fact is that in the 2007 year-end interviews, PM Harper warned that the year ahead would be a challenging one, and everyone at the time scoffed and scratched their heads in disbelief, wondering why the PM was talking down the economy.
He was not being alarmist, just matter of fact. Don't believe me, read it in this Canada.com story:
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics/story.html?id=f5ec9cef-6654-4acc-9164-9e468011b18e
«'Challenging year' ahead, Harper warns in year-end interview
Andrew Mayeda, Ottawa Citizen
Published: Thursday, December 20, 2007
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Stephen Harper has a sobering message for Canadians this holiday season: Enjoy the eggnog and candy canes while they last, because the party could soon be over. …»
And from a second source:
http://www.macleans.ca/article.jsp?content=20071227_193713_1392
«Not-so-happy New Year
Stephen Harper tells Macleans.ca why he's not looking forward to 2008 – and why you shouldn't either
John Geddes | Dec 28, 2007 | 8:37 pm EST …»
Then things went from “challenging” to “what the heck is happening?”
So if conditions change, one has to adjust to those changing conditions.
Instead of pointing fingers, consider these lines:
“Knowledge is invariably a matter of degree: you cannot put your finger upon even the simplest datum and say “this we know.” T.S. Eliot
And:
“The moving finger writes; and having writ,
Moves on: nor all your Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a line,
Nor all your Tears wash out a Word of it.”
Edward Fitzgerald, British writer, poet, translator of the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam.
So, let's try to deal with the present without the usual recriminations about the past or dire predictions about the future … please?