The Royal Bank this morning issued updated forecasts for provincial economies and the news is not good:
The persistence of the financial market maelstrom means that the economic downturn will undoubtedly be more severe than we previously thought, with the United States now in the throes of a fairly deep recession and Canada no longer able to avoid a short period of contraction. This bleaker context will have widespread negative implications for provincial economies.
Here's RBC's predictions for percentage growth of provincial gross domestic product — the sum of all economic activity in a province — for 2008 and 2009, ranked from best to worst.
- Saskatchewan: 3.5 / 2.8
- Alberta: 1.5 / 2.1
- Manitoba: 2.5 / 1.9
- New Brunswick: 1.6 / 1.2
- Nova Scotia: 1.2 / 0.8
- British Columbia: 0.8 / 0.6
- Prince Edward Island: 1.5 / 0.5
- Quebec: 0.6 / 0.0
- CANADA: 0.6 / 0.0
- Newfoundland and Labrador: 0.0 / -0.5
- Ontario: -0.2 / -1.4