Some quick takes on interesting races in MB, SK, and AB:
MANITOBA
CHURCHILL
Tina Keeper won this for the Liberals in 2006, partly on the strength of a split in the NDP vote. Back then, incumbent MP Bev Desjarlais, who had quit the NDP caucus, was trying to defend her seat in a race that also included NDP candidate Nikki Ashton. With Desjarlais and Ashton splitting things, Keeper came up the middle. In 2008, Ashton is back for a re-match and Desjarlais — well, she went to work for Tory minister Greg Thompson right after the last election. This riding could swing NDP.
SAINT BONIFACE
During this campaing, whenever I have asked Liberal, Tory, or NDP strategists about Manitoba and how the standings there may change on Oct. 14, everyone tells me that Liberal Raymond Simard is in trouble in this riding. The Conservative candidate Shelly Glover is Winnipeg police officer and could win here.
SASKATCHEWAN
BATTLEFORDS-LLOYDMINSTER
This is the riding where embattled Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz hopes to be returned and, listeriosis jokes notwithstanding, he probably will. The NDP's Bob Woloshyn stands to gain if Battlefords voters are not ready to forgive Ritz his sense of humour.
DESNETHÉ-MISSINIPPI-CHURCHILL RIVER
The most northern riding in the province was won by Conservative Rob Clarke in a byelection last year. Liberal Gary Merasty won it a hair in 2006. Merasty beat Conservative Jeremy Harrison who won it by a nose in 2004. Clarke is expected to hold this riding for the Tories but the challenger is Liberal David Orchard — yes, that David Orchard — who has defied the pundits before with his political organization skills.
REGINA-LUMSDEN-LAKE CENTRE
Conservative Tom Lukiwski was caught on tape uttering nasty anti-gay slurs that angered some voters in his riding. There are probably not enough who are still angry enough to toss him aside.
WASCANA
There are few Liberals the Conservatives would like to beat more than Ralph Goodale, the lone Prairie Liberal. A poll by the local paper, though, indicates that Tories will be frustrated again and Goodale will be on his party's front bench once again.
ALBERTA
EDMONTON-STRATHCONA
Polls show that somewhere around 70 per cent of Albertas are voting Tory. So it's a bit of stretch to say there is anything interesting going on in Alberta on election day. Still, if we have to pick something to watch, it might be Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer's re-match with NDP candidate Linda Duncan. If there is an upset in Alberta, it could be here. Some Tory insiders tell me that Conservative incumbent Peter Goldring could also be in for a surprise in EDMONTON EAST. I'll believe it when I see it …
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