Races to watch: Ontario

Quick takes on Ontario ridings worth watching and why:

BEACHES-EAST YORK
Marilyn Churley, who was in Bob Rae’s cabinet in Ontario, is back for a second crack at Lib incumbent Maria Minna. It’s Minna’s to lose but if there is another Toronto riding the NDP could pick up in addition to what they have, this might be it. Layton was campaigning in Toronto Monday hoping to pry it loose.

BRAMPTON-SPRINGDALE
This is Lib incumbent Ruby Dhalla’s riding, one of the most populous ridings in the country. Dhalla, young, good-looking, and popular should win but there have been rumours that she is nervous and has pulled out all the stops in the final week.

BURLINGTON
It took Conservative incumbent Mike Wallace three tries to knock off Liberal Paddy Torsney. Harper visited this riding in the last week of 2006 and again in the last week of 2008. And again, the main event is Wallace versus Torsney.

CHATHAM-KENT-ESSEX
ELGIN-MIDDLESEX-LONDON
LAMBTON-KENT-MIDDLESEX
SARNIA-LAMBTON
ESSEX
OSHAWA

Watch these ridings for the auto sector effect. Businesses and voters in these ridings depend heavily on a healthy auto sector. Harper had some money for Ford three days before the campaign got underway but, other than that, hasn’t been seen to be doing a lot for the sector. Rookie incumbent Conservatives are going to have to keep their head up in Chatham-Kent (Dave van Kesteren), Sarnia-Lambton (Pat Davidson) and Lambton-Kent (Bev Shipley). Even though two-term Cons MP Jeff Watson is the country’s first ever elected automaker (he worked on the line at Chrysler), he’ll be challenged to hold on to the Windsor-area riding of ESSEX. In Oshawa, the NDP is putting up a CAW leader, Mike Bilek Shields, who they hope will channel some GM anger at Conservative incumbent Colin Carrie.

EGLINTON-LAWRENCE
Should be a win for Liberal Joe Volpe in a walk but this could be the shocker of the night. Don’t know what the most shocking detail might be, that the Tories win one in Toronto or that Volpe is out.

GLENGARRY-PRESCOTT-RUSSELL
Voters here may be forgiven for being confused. The incumbent is Cons Pierre Lemieux who replaced longtime Liberal Don Boudria. This time around voters can choose between two Lemieuxs (Green candidate is Sylvie Lemieux) and another Boudria, Don’s son Dan. In any event, this looks to be a close race.

GUELPH
Liberal Brenda Chamberlain held this riding then she retired. The Lib candidate Frank Valeriote is a good choice but the Green Party’s Mike Nagy is doing well enough here.

HALDIMAND-NORFOLK
Diane Finley holds the unenviable title of “cabinet minister most likely to lose”. Mind you, some of my Tory sources think she'll be OK and that Jean Pierre Blackburn is the minister (other then Michael Fortier) who is in troube. If Finley loses, blame the long-running conflict in Caledonia between natives and a subdivision owner as well as unhappy tobacco farmers.

HALTON
Garth Turner’s riding. Need I say more? Also of note: Halton had the second most number of eligible voters — 98,768 — of any riding in 2006. Oak Ridges-Markham had more at 111,882.

HAMILTON EAST-STONEY CREEK
Was held by Liberal Tony Valeri who knocked off Sheila Copps in a nasty nomination battle in 2005 when parts of their ridings were combined. Didn’t help Tony, though. He got bumped by the NDP’s Wayne Marsden. Still, if Liberal wounds have healed, Larry Di Ianni could be the new MP.

HAMILTON MOUNTAIN
NDP MP Chris Charlton took at least three kicks at this can before winning. Can she hold if the left vote collapses back towards the Liberals?

HURON BRUCE
Paul Steckle, the Liberal MP who probably secretly voted for the Reform Party at one time, has retired clearing the way for Conservative candidate Ben Lobb to steal this one.

KENORA
Tories aren’t supposed to win anything north of Orillia in Ontario but party HQ thinks Greg Rickford has a chance to knock off Liberal incumbent Roger Valley. Mind you, the NDP is bullish on everything north of Superior — including KENORA, THUNDER BAY-RAINY RIVER, and THUNDER BAY-SUPERIOR NORTH, the riding last held by Liberal-turned-Conservative Joe Commuzzi.

OAKVILLE
Liberal Bonnie Brown, from the Lloyd Axworthy wing of her party, seems to have nine lives in this second most affluent riding in Canada. But if the Tories are sweeping the suburbs, Bonnie best look out …

OTTAWA CENTRE
Voters here may be giving NDP incumbent Paul Dewar a vote in recognition of the work his mother Marian did for Ottawa. Marian died in mid-campaign and Paul, already a strong candidate, may be too much for Penny Collenette, wife of David, the former Chretien-era cabinet minister.

OTTAWA SOUTH
A potential for another shocker. Could Lib David McGuinty lose to a Conservative here? He’s the favourite and he's hustling hard to justify that.

PARKDALE-HIGH PARK
NDP incumbent Peggy Nash versus Liberal kingmaker Gerard Kennedy. Will Dion’s coattails be enough to get Kennedy into the House of Commons. Don’t bet (much) on it.

PARRY SOUND-MUSKOKA
Tony Clement won this riding by a sliver over his Liberal challenger. This time around, it will be similarly tough. The Liberal is Jamie McGarvey, well known in the riding.

PETERBOROUGH
A bellwether. Sends MPs to sit on the government side. Dean del Maestro is Cons incumbent. Lib challenger is Betsy McGregor and she’s been giving him a helluva run.

ST. CATHARINES
Rick Dykstra won by a hair over Lib Walt Lewstewka in 2006. Lewstewka is back. There have been layoffs in this auto-industry town. Keep an eye out here — could go either way.

THUNDER BAY-SUPERIOR NORTH
We’ll all miss Liberal turned Conservative MP Joe Comuzzi, the Tony Bennett lookalike who was dubbed the Senator from Florida for his penchant for heading south at the winter break. Comuzzi quit the Libs because he couldn’t vote against a budget that contained funding for a new hospital in his riding. Will voters here remember the Conservative largesse? Probably not — they look set to elect an NDP candidate.

TRINITY SPADINA
The NDP’s Olivia Chow beat former Lib cabinet minister Tony Ianno in 2006. Now Ianno’s wife Christine Innes wants the seat back in the family.