There are some new polls out this weekend, each of which has some different results. Some of those differences are significant; some are slight.
The secret sauce to accurate polling is a jealously guarded secret but much of it has to do with question formulation and the order in which the questions are put to the respondent. I just got a call this afternoon at home from one of the pollsters mentioned below and here's what I was asked (I'm paraphrasing the questions) and in the order I was asked:
– What's the number one issue facing Canada today?
– Would you “consider or not consider” not voting for the following parties? Questioner then listed the parties. The pollster will rotate the order these parties are read out. In may case, it was Cons, Greens, Libs and NDP
– Who would make the best prime minister?
– Would you be very uncomfortable, somewhat uncomfortable, somewhat comfortable or very comfortable with a majority Harper government. I noted that the pollster did not ask “majority Conservative government” but asked “majority Harper government”. Also: I was not asked how I felt about minorities or any other government.
That was about it. I was never asked, oddly enough, “If a vote were held today, which party's candidate would you vote for?”
So here's the latest polls:
Ipsos Reid, which provides polls exclusively to Canwest News Service has: CONS 38 / LIBS 29 / NDP 13 / GRE 11, BQ 8
“Stephen Harper's Tories have a commanding lead over Stéphane Dion's Liberals nationally, but the Conservatives' failure to secure first place in the key electoral battlegrounds of Ontario and Quebec could stop them from winning a majority government..”
Nanos Research has CONS 38, LIBS 30, NDP 15, BQ 9, GRE 8.
Ekos Research has CONS 36, LIBS 26, NDP 19, GRE 11, BQ 8
“The Conservatives still lead in the B.C. lower mainland, but the Liberals remain strong in Toronto and Montreal – their traditional bedrock. ”
Harris/Decima has CONS 41, LIBS 26, NDP 14, GRE 9, BQ 8