With all the Vimy stuff, I’ve been involved in over the last few days, I’ve neglected the release of some new polling data from SES Research.
On Sunday, SES released their latest voting intentions survey. It’s a mixed bag for the two main parties. Depending on which slice of data you want to look at, the news is marginally good or marginally bad for both the Conservatives and the Liberals.
Here’s the big picture nationally
“For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top current local preferences?”
- Conservative – 36 % (up 3 percentage points since SES most recent poll on Feb. 8)
- Liberal – 33 % (no change since last poll)
- NDP – 16 % (-1)
- BQ – 10% (no change)
- Green – 6 % (-1)
For this poll, 1,000 Canadians were surveyed between March 31 and April 5. The pollster says the results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
So, things are moving up for the Tories but, according to SES President Nik Nanos, “the Conservatives are still short of forming a majority government.”
Meanwhile, the Liberals are staying put and haven’t budged from where they were in the last federal election. So some might say that, despite near universal poor reviews from the pundit class in Ottawa on his performance, Stephane Dion is not hurting his party. On the other hand, Dion doesn’t seem to be helping his party.
But Nanos says there is trouble for the Liberals in Quebec:
However, the federal budget, Quebec provincial election results and the new advertising scandal arrest has put downward pressure on Liberal support in Quebec. The Liberals have dropped nine points in Quebec in the past 60 days. Research conducted by SES has shown that in the past there is a direct relationship between federal Liberal support in Quebec and any new revelations regarding the sponsorship scandal. It is too early to tell whether the Liberal drop is short term or not.
Here’s the numbers SES has for Quebec only:
- BQ – 37 % (-2 percentage points)
- Conservatives – 28 % (+8)
- Liberal – 18% (-9)
- NDP – 13% (+5)
- Green – 4% (-2)
For this poll, 244 Quebecers were surveyed. The pollster says it is accurate to within 6.4 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
And finally, there’s some new data from SES today, which surveys Canadians as to their opinion of which federal leader would make the best Prime Minister. Here’s the results:
- Stephen Harper 42%
- Stephane Dion 17%
- Jack Layton 16%
- Gilles Duceppe 7%
- Elizabeth May 4%
- None of them 7%
- Unsure 6%
This poll was done between March 31 and April 5. One thousand Canadians were asked this “read and rotate” question — respondents are read a list of the leaders and asked to select one, and the order in which the respondent hears the choices is rotated — and the pollster says the results were accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.