Over the next week or so, Jack Layton's NDP are essentially going to be called upon to give Stephen Harper's government another year in office. My bet is: They will. That makes me part of “Team 2012”, those who believe the next federal election will be in 2012 and not this spring. I was actually on the Team 2012 bus for a long time but I must confess the Speaker's contempt rulings and the Carson affair was enough to get me to signal that I ought to get off the 2012 bus at the next stop. Then we learned late today about some of things the Conservatives will put in their budget Tuesday including:
- A boost to the Guaranteed Income Supplement of $600 a year for single seniors and $840 a year for couples.
- The extension of the EcoEnergy tax credit to give homeowners an incentive to make homes more energy efficient.
- Forgiveness of student loans of new doctors and nurses if they work in rural and remote areas.
- $4 million to a Thunder Bay, Ont. research institute — and both Thunder Bay MPs happen to be NDP MPs
- A new initiative to help veterans find jobs in the construction industry — an initiative Jack Layton lobbied Flaherty for personally.
So I was asked tonight by a friend of mine a question I've been asked lots frequently in one form or another: What is your sense of the NDP willingness to have an election?
And here's my answer:
My sense is that there are election hawks in all parties. But at the end of the day, this is the call the leaders have to make. It's my information that Harper, for example, doesn't want an election though many of his closest advisors want one.
Because this is the leader's call, I've focused my attention closely on NDP Leader Jack Layton over the last few months. Some in Layton's party, including some MPs, seem to be itching for a fight. But at the end of the day, it is Layton who has to make the final call and convince his caucus that his final call is the right move.
I think Layton will be able to say — with a great degree of truth — to his caucus and to his supporters that the NDP's frequent budget “asks” resulted in an EcoEnergy tax credit, a GIS bump, some money for new doctors and so on. Because they were the ones who asked for this stuff, the NDP can — again, with quite a bit of truth — turn to their supporters and say, “See? That's why you elect NDP MPs. Even though we are the smallest caucus in the Commons, we can deliver for our supporters. What did the Liberals get for their supporters? Nothing. And we voted against those corporate tax cuts before they could take root. The Liberals didn't even show up. And now, when we have a chance to do something for the environment and to do something for seniors, well, we think that's pretty good for a party with fewer than 40 MPs.”
My friend asked, of course, about “willingness” to have an election and what I just wrote is the answer to a different question. So let me answer what I was asked: I think the NDP are quite willing to go to the polls. In meetings with NDP operatives, they've laid out a credible plan to win more seats than they have now, even if they don't increase their popular vote that much. My hunch is that if they can boost their popular vote on e-day to anything above 20 per cent, they stand a very real chance of becoming the official opposition in a scenario where the Tories win a majority and the Liberal vote collapses. So they're willing. But will they go this week? I don't think so.
How about you? What's your sense?
My sense is that you're right (unfortunately). But Jack and the NDP must be held accountable for everything that flows from propping up Harper (not just the few budget baubles they like). That includes the contemptuous attitude to Parliament, the mega-prisons, the corporate tax cuts, the lack of a national child care program and the list goes on. Jack might like progressives across the country (and the media) to focus on his talking points, but I suspect most won't. And deservedly so.
I would only add that I think Layton is more than happy to wait another year and let Iggy's popularity hit rock bottom. If Jack's goal really is to win more seats than the Liberals, then the longer Iggy is leader, the better for Jack.
The reason that this is tough to call is that there are so many competing variables that Mr. Layton has to evaluate.
First is electoral gamesmanship. While the polls show a Conservative bump, many Canadians don't really pay attention to politics outside of the election period. Will the cumulative affects of 'Harperland' escalate in a campaign? If so, Harper loses despite current polling.
Second is that waiting for the Harper government to decline in the polls is a big gamble. The conservatives have a large budget for out of campaign advertising and are not afraid to use it aggressively. There is no assurance that polling will improve, and the longer this government runs the harder it is for the opposition parties to argue the courage of their convictions.
Finally, there is the NDP 'brand' which is tied in many minds to principled behaviour and being the conscience of Parliament. Supporting Harper in this round could do serious damage to that 'brand' with potentially devastating long term consequences for the NDP base.
agree completely