I spent the day on the phone today trying to figure out the ins and the outs of all this cabinet shuffle kerfuffle and, as a result, I find myself in the minority among my press gallery colleagues for I do not believe there will be any shuffle before Parliament resumes this spring. But, as I said, many of my colleagues think I’m blind as a bat — and they may well be right.
Canwest News Service reporter Norma Greenaway reports today that “there is virtually no doubt” that Harper will “shake up his cabinet”. Colleagues of mine in the CTV Ottawa Bureau feel the same way. Jane Taber, in today’s Globe and Mail, is more equivocal, noting that there is simply a lot of speculation, largely based, it seems on the fact that Harper’s closest advisors in the Prime Minister’s Office have told Ministers to restrict travel.
No one really knows what will happen, of course, except for Harper himself. He has an underperforming minister in Rona Ambrose (top left) who holds a portfolio – Environment — that seems to be politically more important than anyone had believed a year ago. But one political staffer tells me that while it is completely the Prime Minister’s prerogative to appoint whomever he pleases as Environment Minister, the file belongs to every member of cabinet. “If we have failed to effectively explain our environment policies, it is the entire Cabinet who must do better.” An admirable sentiment, to be sure, but I can tell you for a fact that many members of Ambrose’s caucus have been grumbling — some not so quietly — about her performance for more than a month.
But deciding who is in and who is out of cabinet is a job only for Harper and the guy he looks at in the mirror every day. Case in point: The appointments last winter of David Emerson and Michael Fortier to cabinet. Reliable sources indicate that Harper’s closest advisor — his Chief of Staff Ian Brodie — knew about the Emerson switch but didn’t know about Fortier. The head of his transition team, Derek Burney, knew about Fortier but wasn’t told about Emerson. There was, of course, no leak about either bombshell, just as there was no leak on the more recent income trust announcement. So, it’s all up to Harper — he may consult Brodie but many doubt if he will do even that. “We are dealing with a Prime Minister who has the propensity to change his mind at the last minute,” said one source.
So, today, I phoned or e-mailed some of those “top advisors” in the PMO. I corresponded with cabinet ministers; with Conservative MPs; with Conservative political staffers on the Hill and off the Hill; and with those we call ‘strategists’ – the lobbyists, consultants and others employed by private sector firms off the Hill but who have close connections to those in power. To a person, they would not say anything of any significance if it was to be attributed to them. If I promised not to attribute to them, they offered me the odd insight, from which I’ve stitched together the following:
Here is what I heard:
- Human Resources Minister Diane Finley will quit cabinet because of health problems. Not true. The rumour mill in Ottawa had it that Finley, who suffers from Graves Disease, had surgery after the House adjourned last month and that the surgery had not gone well. Her health in decline, Finley would decide to quit her job as a cabinet minister, clearing the way for Harper to move Ambrose to Human Resources — the kind of lateral move that could plausibly be argued as a slight promotion. The Prime Minister’s director of communications, Sandra Buckler, was very quick to respond today to the key aspect of this rumour — Finley’s health was in decline — telling me that Finley had not had any surgery and was doing just fine, thank you very much.
- Cabinet ministers have been ordered to Ottawa for this Thursday. Not true. Several cabinet ministers will be away from Ottawa; still on holiday or even out of the country. Sources in the PMO also indicate this is a bogus rumour.
- Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon will be moved into Environment. Unlikely. Cannon was elected in the Quebec riding of Pontiac, just across the river from Ottawa. He didn’t win by much and will have a tough fight to hold on to his seat in the next election. In addition to being Minister of Transport, he is also in charge of Canada Post and is Minister of Infrastructure and Communities. He has the best portfolio he can have in terms of getting his picture taken a lot handing out cheques and cutting ribbons. He is also the political minister for Quebec. All of those roles can only help his chances of getting re-elected, something he and his party need to make sure happens. Being Environment Minister likely hurts his chances of getting re-elected. Cannon’s director of communications Catherine Loubier says her minister has a very full plate over the next two months doing transport, infrastructure and communities stuff. He is on holiday with his family this week.
Industry Minister Maxime Bernier moves into Environment. Possible. Bernier (left) loves his job as Industry minister — just ask him! But as the only Quebec Conservative MP who has a safe seat — he, like his father before him, is the King of the Beauce — Bernier could take on the relatively controversial Environment file if only to sell it more effectively in La Belle Province. Sources say Ambrose has been reluctant, if not fearful, of trying to sell her government’s plan in Quebec. But who would take Industry? That’s the big question. It’s unlikely Ambrose would move there — although not out of the realm of possibility. More likely is that Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Peter Van Loan would play a housekeeping role as Industry Minister until the next election and Ambrose would take his old job. Or, to really gum things up, Ambrose could be punted from the cabinet altogether and James Rajotte, who, like Ambrose, is a young Edmonton MP, could take over at Industry. Rajotte was the Industry critic in the last Parliament and currently chairs the Industry Committee. But if Rajotte is elevated, expect howling from the likes of Diane Ablonczy, Jason Kenney, and James Moore — others who could rightfully claim that, on merit, they ought to be in Cabinet but are not there for other ‘politically correct’ reasons. 
Indian Affairs Minister Jim Prentice moves into Environment. Not likely. In
this scenario — one of the first to be floated before Christmas — Prentice (right) goes to Environment; Ambrose goes to Intergovernmental Affairs; and Van Loan goes to Indian Affairs. Several Conservatives both in and out of government believe Harper will be loathe to move Prentice. Though Cannon is officially the deputy prime minister, Prentice is the de facto deputy PM. He serves on four (!!) cabinet committees (He chairs the second-most powerful committee – ‘Operations’ — sits on the most powerful — ‘Priorities and Planning’ — which Harper chairs and serves on Treasury Board and the Social Affairs Committee) and, in a portfolio that has often been a political minefield, he has done a reasonably good job. (Even the NDP say so!) Moreover, if part of the Conservative problem is selling the Environment program in Quebec, Prentice may not be your man, some sources say. His French is OK, but you’d probably be better off with a Francophone like Bernier. Of course, Bernier’s English — which gets better every day — may still not be good enough to carry the message in English Canada. Also: Whoever succeeds Ambrose will be inheriting a job in which they will have next to no policy wiggle room. Does Prentice really want a job where he’s selling ideas he really had no hand in shaping? Not likely.- There will be no cabinet shuffle. Possible. Conservatives from Quebec that I spoke to today — both staffers and MPs — were nearly unanimous in their view that Harper would be best served by keeping things just the way they are. They look at it this way: What is the problem for Conservatives right now? Answer: Perceived weakness on the environment. Will replacing the Environment Minister improve that perception? Not likely. So why rock the boat? And, even if there was a good chance it could improve voters perception that the Tories are doing something — anything! — on Environment, the Quebeckers I spoke to (and some from outside Quebec) say that while voters right now say the environment is a big issue motivating their political preferences, they will not do so at election time. And, in any event, moving Ambrose out could cause more problems than it might solve. If Harper does shuffle Ambrose it means, in the view of one communications staffer I spoke with, that Harper is conceding that environment is an election issue and that he has lost leadership on the file. Do you think Harper is the sort of Prime Minister that likes to let the Opposition define what the issue of a debate or political fight will be (ask Gilles Duceppe how his “Nation Motion” turned out!)? Does Harper seem like the type who likes to concede he has lost leadership on a file?
- There are travel restrictions on Ministers. Sort of. International Trade Minister David Emerson and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will be in China next week — with the blessing of the PMO. The offices of six other ministers I spoke with today said that the PMO had not advised any of their offices about travel restrictions. That said: A source outside government that tends to be right more often than wrong says that Ministers have been told that, as of Monday, January 8, they are to stay in Canada and near an airport.
- Harper is summoning Ministers to Ottawa. True. But does that mean a cabinet shuffle is afoot? Maybe not. Today, Justice Minister Vic Toews travelled from his home in Manitoba to Ottawa today for a one-on-one with the PM, during which they presumably looked at the formidable amount of legislation Toews tabled in the last session with an eye towards figuring out how on earth they are to get it all through the Commons. Government House Leader Rob Nicholson was not in his riding of Niagara Falls today but was in the PM’s Langevin Block office likely planning out the overall legislative strategy for the spring session. Harper also had telephone meetings with other ministers,mostly, as The Canadian Press’s Jennifer Ditchburn reports, on some basic issues like: Do you plan to run again in the next election? Ambrose, it should be noted, was in her riding in Edmonton today.