Consultancy International Data Corp. of
Framingham, Mass. has published its predictions for the IT industry for 2004
and they're relatively thought-provoking, as lists at this time of year
ought to be. Here's what Frank Gens, senior VP, research at IDC has to say
about 2004:
- A tech resurrection will occur In its most recent official
forecast IDC says worldwide spending on tech stuff will grove 4.9% in 2004
compared to 2003, “the first significant uplift in several years.”
Unofficially, IDC says spending could grow by as much as 8%. - Commodity strategies will take the lead Software and hardware
vendors will finally get the message from their customers, that is, they
want standards-based technology products, not proprietary ones. As a symbol
of that trend, look for shipments of servers pre-loaded with Linux to eclipse 10 % of all server sales in
2004. - Utility computing will equal futility computing Utility computing is a good long-term bet, IDC says, but the concept is still waiting for a market leader, despite the mega-marketing by the likes
of IBM and HP. Vendors are focused too much on the infrastructure market and not enough on solving problems that businesses have, IDC says. - Offshore IT services are here to stay Offshore outsourcing in 2004
will double to $16-billion. Offshore, in this context, means “not in the
U.S.”. Canada, incidentally, is right up there with India as a beneficiary
of this “Offshore trend” in the U.S. - IT suppliers struggle to put on a business faceIT vendors must
and will do a better job of explaining to their customers how the purchase
of software, hardware, and services actually helps their customers'
business. - CEO-level business priorities will drive spending From issues
surrounding new regulatory compliance to an improved return on invested
capital, IT vendors, products, and services that help with the priorities of
CEOs will do well in 2004. - An RFID bubble will form — and burst The interest of Wal-Mart
and the U.S. Department of Defense won't be enough to make 2004 the year of
RFID. There will,
however, be lots of hype about it next year, IDC says. - The Wi-Fi race is onThe number of wi-fi hotspots
worldwide will double while big business customers test out new ways to
deploy wi-fi within the enterprise. - A new China and a new European Union will emerge China will
consumer $30-billion in TI spending in 2004 and a newly enlarged EU will
also mean newly enlarged business opportunities. - The next digital leap will be in the house From Dell's decision to start selling TVs to the increasing popularity of camera phones and DVD
recorders, digital media adoption by consumers will be one of the big
stories of 2004. Oh, and for the first time in 2004, more than half of
online households in the U.S. will have broadband access.
ZDNet columnist Dan Farber identifies offshore outsourcing, utility computing, and wi-fi as his big issues for 2004.