The QMI/Leger Poll: The full details

We published the results of our latest QMI/Leger poll in today's papers.

Here's the top line numbers:

Apr17Voting

And here's some stories we ran out of this poll:

Tories hold lead while NDP surges

OTTAWA – Stephen Harper's Conservatives continue to enjoy a commanding lead among decided voters but Jack Layton's NDP is surging and, in many parts of the country, has eclipsed Michael Ignatieff's Liberals as the second most popular party, according to a new poll done exclusively for QMI Agency…

Jack's Back! Leader's popularity lifts NDP

The good news for Jack Layton: In Quebec and in every province west of Ontario, the NDP is the second most-popular party among decided voters. <the bad news for Layton: NDP support is the "softest" among all parties …

Most Canadians shrug off “Just Visiting Attacks”

…a new poll shows that the Conservative attacks appear to have had some success in key election battlegrounds but, overall, most Canadians – or 54% – think the issue is irrelevant or that Ignatieff's overseas experience is a good thing for an applicant for the job of prime minister. ..

Constitution: Oui au Québec, non au Canada

Un Québécois sur deux serait prêt à rouvrir le débat constitutionnel pour faire entrer une fois pour toutes le Québec à l’intérieur de la constitution canadienne . . .

This poll was conducted April 15 to 17, after last week’s leaders debates. Leger surveyed 3,534 respondents selected randomly from its online panel of more than 350,000 Canadians. The pollster says results would be accurate to within 1.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20 for a similar-sized group selected randomly from among all Canadians.

You can download the poll data, methodology and questions here: National Poll_Federal Election 2011_April 17 2011.pdf

The truth about the news biz is it's hard to find the truth

Please see update below regarding CBC audience numbers

In the the fall of 1998, I was part of a relatively young group of journalists and editors that, with Conrad Black's money behind us, launched the National Post. As a journalist, it was a thrilling time — being on the inaugural staff of a start-up national newspaper, going up against the established market presence of The Globe and Mail.

Of course, given Black's well-known political sympathies, all the journalists on his staff — including the two top-ranking political writers at its launch Bob Fife (now with CTV) and Giles Gherson (now working for Dalton McGuinty's government) — were dismissed by our critics and competitors that we were about to wreck journalism in Canada — precisely because Black did not have the same kind of political views of the small-l liberal media establishment in Canada. We didn't wreck journalism in Canada, of course. In fact, I'd say we made it a whole lot better.

Still, on the eve of the launch of Sun News Network, here we are again. Same kind of critics; same kind of argument.

Personally: I'm always going to root for an initiative that, like the Post, creates more jobs for journalists and, in doing so, adds to the diversity of voices and opinions.

And I'll bet that, just as the Globe and the Toronto Star became better papers in response to the new competition from the Post, I think the added Canadian competition in the all-news TV business will force the existing entrants to respond with a new game. And, at the end of all of that, Canadians will be well served by more voices, smarter competition, and more choices.

That said: It disappoints me now, as it did back in the pre-launch days of the National Post, to read “reporting” from quality news organizations about their competitors that doesn't even attempt to do the basics. Such is the case with a piece moved on the Canadian Press wire — still thought of as the gold standard for some kinds of reporting — about the launch of our news network. It's written by Bill Brioux, “a freelance TV columnist based in Brampton, Ont.” and appears to be written in about 25 minutes after he watched one of our promos. By contrast, The Globe and Mail, assigned one of its most thorough staff reporters, Steve Chase, to do a similar piece. Over at PostMedia, my former colleague and veteran business writer Kim Covert delivered what I thought was, along with Chase's piece, the most straight-up piece on our network's launch (I may disagree with some of the people they interviewed but the reporting was bang-on).

But back to the CP piece. First of all: The Canadian Press makes much of its vaunted integrity, etc., etc., as if that organization employs nothing but high priests of objectivity. In fact, CP does employ many excellent, award-winning journalists who, like most of the excellent journalists I've worked with during my career at the National Post, Globe and Mail and CTV, love a story that upsets the status quo, that challenges authority, and that asks readers to re-assess commonly-held myths. CP reporters — again, like my present and past colleagues — work hard at fairness and accuracy. But CP journalists — like journalists at any organization — have no lock on objectivity and — again, just like journalists everywhere — must subject themselves to challenges of their work by readers, viewers and other journalists. In other words, CP has its blind spots and biases just like anyone else. Most of the time, CP's excellent reporters will acknowledge shortcomings in their reporting or possible bias in sources that could influence a readers opinion. (Great case in point: Joan Bryden's recent report on the leaked A-G report: There was no shortcoming in her reporting but she let readers know, as she reported on the contents of the leak, that it came from an opponent of the government. That was important information for a reader to be able to assess the reliability of the information passed on “anonymously” to Bryden. Inspired by her example, we did the same when we received a different leaked A-G report from a supporter of the government: Report the contents – report on the source)

But in reporting on its own industry, CP has been a big bust and that doesn't reflect well on the organization or its owners. Of course, you will never hear this criticism of CP in op-eds in The Globe and Mail or The Toronto Star and I suspec that the reason for that is because those organization are CP's owners. (Sun Media likely wouldn't run criticisms of CP either for the simple reason that most readers, like it or not, don't really care. But that's another story.)

And yet, despite this reluctance to criticize CP, I can't imagine any other news organization getting away with this howler on their Web site:  “The Canadian Press serves almost every daily newspaper in Canada”. Really? Let's think about that: My company, Quebecor, is the single-largest newspaper company by circulation in the country. In a given week, 6.5 million Canadians will read one of our newspapers. Our big titles include Le Journal de Montreal, the Toronto Sun, and the London Free Press. PostMedia is the number two newspaper chain in the country. It has the National Post, Ottawa Citizen, Vancouver Sun and others in its stable. (PostMedia claims it is the largest publisher of “paid” circulation in the country; Quebecor does not make that distinction about “paid” circulation as it publishes some 'give-away' 24 Hours titles. Either way: Quebecor and PostMedia are 1-2 or 2-1 when it comes to newspapers in Canada)

Neither Sun Media nor PostMedia run CP copy. In other words, CP does not serve either the number one circulation newspaper publisher in the country nor the number two publisher. Without National Post, Toronto Sun, the Calgary Sun and Calgary Herald, the Edmonton Journal and Edmonton Sun, the Vancouver Sun and Province, the Ottawa Citizen and Ottawa Sun, the Montreal Gazette, Le Journal de Montreal , or Le Journal de Quebec (I could go on), how on earth can you claim to serve “amost every daily newspaper in Canada.”

I'd ask someone at CP corporate but it is one of the most opaque organizations in Canada's media industry when it comes to disclosing its financials or governance. Have you checked its Web site? Who runs the place? How are senior managers appointed? How much money does CP get from CBC every year? How much money does CP get from its corporate clients?

So back to Brioux's article that CP moved about Sun News Network. Sun Media left CP last summer, a departure that cost CP $7 million a year. No mention of that by Brioux.

Brioux talks about the post-debate ratings of CBC and CTV. First, CBC is one of CP's biggest clients and sources of cash. BellGlobeMedia, owner of CTV, is one of the shareholders in CP. Sun Media is not a shareholder or a customer. No mention of that by Brioux. Brioux cites great ratings CBC (and to a lesser degree CTV) got after the debates. But really, these are the relevent stats:

 

According to the Bureau of Broadcast Measurement, between Aug. 31, 2009 and June 6, 2010 (almost a year):

  • CNN & CNN Headline News reached 3.1 million Canadians (18+) per week with an average minute audience of 22,000.
  • CBC News and CTV News Channel combined reached 3.3 million Canadians (18+) per week with an average minute audience of 21,000.
  • CP24 reached 3.5 million Canadians (18+) per week with an average minute audience of 22,000.

UPDATE

CBC spokesperson Jeff Keay writes to provide more up-to-date numbers. From Keay:

…you appear to be using year-old and incorrect BBM data about CBC News Network.
In fact, CBC News Network is the most-watched news network in Canada, based on the latest BBM numbers (i.e. adults 18+ for the 2010/11 broadcast year Aug 30/10 – Apr 3/11):
CBC News Network had an average weekly reach of 6.2 milllion Canadians 18+. This is greater than CNN and CNN Headline News combined and greater than both CTV News Channel and CP24.

So let me emphasize: CP24, which broadcasts only in Toronto, gets more viewers that CBC's and CTV's all-news offering combined when one averages viewership out over year, which tends to smooth out one-time spikes in viewership that might come with a leaders debate or some other big news event.

So what should Brioux “the freelance TV columnist” and CP have done with this file? First, the file should have reported the corporate blindspots. Sun News Network is owned by Quebecor, which, last year, ceased purchasing Canadian Press copy which cost CP $7 million a year. Second, CP is partially owned by TorStar Corp. and BellGlobeMedia, which owns The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail, which competes with Quebecor titles such as The Toronto Sun. CP's other owner is Gesca Inc., whose chief newspaper property, La Presse, competes with Quebecor's Le Journal de Montreal.”

Then maybe Brioux, like Chase and Covert, might liked to have phoned someone — anyone! — up to ask them about Sun News Network.

Do that and then let the reader decide. Because at the end of the day, readers and viewers are always right. (And I have I mentioned that the Toronto Sun's readership is up 22% while readership of the Globe and the Star are down... topic for another day.)

 

 

Civilized debate and Sun News Network

Sun News Network will debut Monday afternoon at 1630 and, as the host of one of the network's prime-time shows (The Daily Brief airing M-F 1800 ET) on that network, I'm surprised to read that, though we've not yet aired a single minute, we are going to disappoint Antonia Maioni, a professor at McGill University, who told my former colleague Kim Covert: “I don’t think it’s going to actually raise the level of civilized debate.”

Really?

How's this for civilized debate? This evening, I tweeted a promotional video of our daytime news anchor team which features some of the excellent journalists — many of them female — who you will see on the network. The promo video was titled: “Meet the Sun News hard news team.”

Here's the “civilized debate” coming from those who've never ever seen a single minute of our programming:

David Evans, who says he fixes “PCs, homes, and psyches” from London, Ont. tweeted:

“And looks has nothing to do with it. What dogs.”

Nice.

Here's Stuart Trew, the trade campaigner with the Council of Canadians:

Stuart

Wow. The Council of Canadians. Maude Barlow's group. Even if I was mistaken that the Council of Canadians stood for advancing the cause of social justice in Canada and around the world, I'm certain that those who campaign on its behalf aren't supposed to be laughing at journalists — just because they are women.

Here's Jean Proulx, an aide to Liberal MP Marc Garneau:

@davidakin Well that looks about as appalling as I expected, Hope you're well compensated Mr. Aiken #elxn41 #FoxNewsNorth #lipgloss #garbage

I'll forgive the spelling mistake — I realize how taxing it can be to get all of four letters in a row correctly to spell A-K-I-N — but, really, are those small-l liberal ideals? I thought small-l liberals were about freedom of expression. That more voices were always better than fewer voices. The arrogance of Proulx and Maioni is precisely what animates many of those who thought it a good idea to start up this kind of network.

And I am further saddened to observe that I have watched with anger and disappointment over the years as my friends  Krista Erickson (while she was at CBC), Susan Delacourt, Gloria Galloway, Jennifer Ditchburn and many other female journalists of the Parliamentary Press Gallery were singled out — precisely becuase they were female — for a unique kind of vicious insults from right-wing “haters” in the blogosphere, on Twitter and elsewhere — simply for their journalism. I suppose I was naive to believe that such mysogny and arrogance did not exist at the other end of the political spectrum.

Antonia: How am I doing now for civilized debate?

 

Elections Canada Statement on University of Guelph poll – and the Conservative reaction

Statement from Elections Canada:

OTTAWA, April 15, 2011 – The Special Voting Rules of the Canada Elections Act provide for the use of the special ballot to assist electors in a range of situations. Certain electors, including members of the Canadian Forces serving abroad and electors away from their ridings during a federal election (eg. snowbirds), can vote only by special ballot. The special ballot is also available to all electors who wish to vote by mail or at the local Elections Canada office. Because the rules governing the use of the special ballot are different from those for standard voting methods, Elections Canada generally uses the special ballot outside the local Elections Canada office in defmed circumstances to assist electors who face barriers to voting, such as electors in acute care hospitals or in isolated work camps in locations like Fort McMurray in northern Alberta.

“Initiatives of this nature are expected to be planned well ahead of the election,” said Chief Electoral Officer of Canada Marc Mayrand. “Parties are consulted, to avoid any confusion and to give them an opportunity to raise any possible concerns so that these may be considered and, where appropriate, addressed prior to conducting such initiatives.”

In light of the focus on youth and student electoral participation at the 41 st general election, and on efforts to increase voter interest and turnout among this group, a well-intentioned returning officer undertook a special initiative to create an opportunity for students at the University of Guelph to vote by special ballot. Once Elections Canada officials were made aware of the local initiative in Guelph, the returning officer was instructed not to engage in any further activities of a similar nature. All returning officers have received this instruction.

While the initiative at the University of Guelph was not pre-authorized by the Chief Electoral Officer, the Canada Elections Act provides that electors may apply for and vote by special ballot. A special ballot coordinator, appointed by the local returning officer, oversaw the activities at the University of Guelph. All information at our disposal indicates that the votes were cast in a manner that respects the Canada Elections Act and are valid.

UPDATE: Shortly after Elections Canada issued this statement, the Conservative Party issued the following:

Statement by the Conservative Campaign

We welcome the statement by Elections Canada concerning voting on campuses and in the electoral district of Guelph.

As we observed this morning, voting is a democratic right and a fair election process is an equally important democratic right.

While the Elections Canada statement confirms that what happened in Guelph lacked proper authorization, we applaud the decision not to disenfranchise University of Guelph students because of errors by the local Returning Officer. These student voters should not suffer because of mistakes by the local election officials.

At the same time, we are pleased that the rules for special ballotting have been clarified and reconfirmed. The same rules should apply everywhere and be applied consistently across the country.

We urge all Canadians to vote, whether by special ballot, at advance polls, or on May 2.

 

Get the back story to this issue here.

The Conservative argument for the blocked ballots in Guelph

The Guelph Mercury reports that the Conservative Party of Canada is seeking to have the “special ballots” of as many as 700 students nullified.

Here is the text of a letter that Arthur Hamilton, the Conservative Party's lawyer, sent to Elections Canada yesterday outlining the party's objections. (Do read the Mercury story first and then parts of this letter will make more sense)

Mr. Pierre Boutet
Office of the Chief Electoral Officer

Dear Mr. Boutet:
Re: Polling irregularities in Guelph

Thank you for speaking with me on numerous occasions yesterday afternoon in respect of voting irregularities in the electoral district of Guelph. Given the circumstances which transpired at the University of Guelph yesterday, I wish to confirm in writing the content of our discussions.

The purpose of my first call to you yesterday was to address what appeared to be a simple matter of the exclusion of a scrutineer at a time when ballots were being provided to individuals purporting to be on the list of electors within the Guelph electoral district. After our various discussions, you expressly confirmed to me that no advance poll or other form of polling had been sanctioned by Elections Canada for any location at the University of Guelph that day, and that accordingly, any ballots which had been received and placed in the ballot box then located at the University of Guelph were a nullity, which would not be recognized, counted or used for any purpose relating to the 41 st general election now underway. Given that express representation by you, acting in your role as authorized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada (the “CEO”), many related concerns with respect to the manner by which this polling was being conducted became moot.

You will know that in a subsequent telephone discussion between us yesterday afternoon, further concerns were raised regarding potential polling or supposed “registration of voters” which was being conducted on the campus of York University in North Toronto. In that subsequent telephone discussion, you once again confirmed that no polling at any university campus had been sanctioned by the CEO, and that as such, no person purporting to be on a voter's list should have been provided a ballot under any circumstances on April 13 at any polling station which was not located within the office of a Returning Officer.

Following our discussions, I am advised that the Returning Officer for the electoral district of Guelph, or an individual identifying herself as the Returning Officer personally attended at the University of Guelph to order that the collection of completed ballots from supposed voters continue, and further, that the hours the poll would remain open were extended for a second time that day, such that this supposed poll remained open beyond 7:00 p.m. Indeed, the final ballot was cast and put into a supposed special ballot box at 8:00 p.m. last evening. The ballot box in question was identified as special ballot box #2 and bore the marking 351-700. It is further my understanding that two seals were affixed to this ballot box, the top seal bearing #1030701 and the bottom seal bearing #1030702.

As you know from our discussions, the opportunity of candidates in the electoral district of Guelph to scrutineer during this “voting” did not comply with the requirements of the Canada Elections Act. But for the representation which you made to me during our telephone discussions yesterday, that all of the ballots placed special ballot box #2 (or any other ballot box utilized) were a nullity, the Conservative Party of Canada and its candidate in the electoral district of Guelph would have a number of challenges and complaints with respect to the ballots now collected during this supposed polling event at the University of Guelph yesterday.

However, on the strength of the unequivocal, express representation you provided yesterday, in accordance with the authority provided to you by the CEO, we require immediate confirmation from the CEO and the Returning Officer from the electoral district of Guelph that this ballot box and all of its contents will remain sealed and that none of the ballots contained therein will under any circumstances be combined with, added to or otherwise dealt with when the final tabulation of votes cast for the various candidates in the electoral district of Guelph takes place. We require this confirmation from the Returning Office and the CEO in writing without delay.

On a related note, a scrutineer who attempted to be present with this ballot box as it was located at the University of Guelph yesterday noted that many of the controls required for a polling location were not in place. Specifically, at the time when ballots were being provided to voters and placed in special ballot box #2, partisan election materials from various candidates contesting the election in the electoral district of Guelph were present in the polling location and indeed immediately proximate to the location of the ballot box. We trust the CEO and the Returning Officer for the electoral district of Guelph will agree that such unrestricted polling conditions fall markedly below the standard required by the Canada Elections Act.

To ensure immediate attention to the matters raised in this letter, I have taken the liberty of providing a copy of this letter to Mr. Mayrand, one of his counsel, and the Returning Officer for the electoral district of Guelph.

Once again, thank you for your prompt attention and definitive determination on the impropriety of the events at the University of Guelph with respect to this supposed polling location yesterday afternoon.

Yours very truly,
Arthur Hamilton

 

Also related: In 2006, the Liberals shut down some special ballot collection at the University of Toronto.

Latest Tory ad: Is this what Harper was decrying on debate night?

During the English-language debates, Conservative leader Stephen Harper had this to say:

“I don't think this kind of political bickering, personal attacks back and forth, is frankly going to do anything for Canadians.”

Two days later, Harper's party released this new ad:

Question then: Is this a “personal attack” or is it, as Conservatives argue, simply reminding voters of things Ignatieff actually said?

Polls are in: Who won the French-language leaders debate?

“The three national party leaders jockeyed to be Quebec’s next federalist champion Wednesday night while the Bloc Quebecois’ Gilles Duceppe worked to knock them off their stride …” [Read the rest of the debate night report by my colleague Jessica Murphy]

Right after the debate, our pollster, Leger Marketing, was in the field to find out who won. The results:

French debate winners

Other pollsters jumped in as well. Ipsos Reid also finds Duceppe was tagged as the winner by most (42%) but finds Michael Ignatieff in second place (declared the winner by 22%), Jack Layton in third at 19% (Post French-Language Debate Flash Poll Reveals Duceppe Takes the Night, Harper Stumbles)

On Twitter, the NDP communications team is reporting the results of a CROP poll (looking for the link) which also has Duceppe out front at 41% but has Layton finishing a strong second (28% pick him as the winner) followed by Harper at 16% and then Ignatieff (12%).

 

Statement from Auditor General Sheila Fraser

Public Statement from Sheila Fraser, Auditor General of Canada, regarding news reports about the audit of the G8 Legacy Infrastructure Fund:

We will not release or comment on our audit report on the G8 Legacy Infrastructure Fund. Under the Auditor General Act, we can only present reports when Parliament is sitting. The Office of the Audit General of Canada remains the custodian of its reports until they are presented to the Speaker of the House of Commons for tabling.

I strongly caution the public to wait until our final report on the G8 Legacy Infrastructure Fund has been tabled in Parliament and made public.

We work very hard to keep our reports confidential before they are tabled. There are indications that an early draft of this report may have been released by someone outside our Office. Our normal audit process requires that we share early drafts of our reports with government departments. We do this so they can validate the facts on which our conclusions are based, provide any additional relevant information, and so they can prepare responses to our recommendations. Sometimes during the process of fact validation, additional information is brought to our attention. Only the final report that is tabled in Parliament represents our audit findings and conclusions.

 

Ignatieff on voting in another country

Millions of Canadians were not born in this country and hundreds of thousands (maybe millions) have likely cast a ballot in an election in another country. Nothing wrong with that. But the Ignatieff campaign had two different answers when asked if the Liberal leader — a born-in-Canada Canadian citizen — had voted in another country.

On Sunday, my colleague Brian Lilley asked the Ignatieff campaign if he had voted in an election in another country.

Ignatieff spokesman Michel Liboiron replied: “Mr. Ignatieff is and always has been a Canadian citizen, period. He has never held any other citizenship and as such, has never voted in a foreign election.”

Lilly asked because:

  • In a 1998 book, Ignatieff says he voted Labour in 1997 to oust the ruling Conservatives. “Why did I vote Labour? I wanted the rascals out,” Ignatieff said in Identity and Politics: A Discussion with Michael Ignatieff and Sean Neeson.
  • Lilley reported that, according to online records, Ignatieff was registered to vote in Britain as recently as 2002.
  • In 2004, Ignatieff told the Glasgow Herald: “I am an American Democrat. I will vote for Kerry in November.”

Apparently Liboiron misspoke because on Monday, Ignatieff himself said:

Q: You say you’ve never voted in a foreign election. But you said something different in 1998 and 2004. So which one is true?

Ignatieff: I’m a Canadian citizen. I’ve never been the citizen of another country. I’ve never voted – can’t vote in the United States. But I’m a Commonwealth citizen, so I have voted in a British election. But you know, I’m also someone who didn’t go to a foreign audience and call this country a second call failed socialist state in front of a Republican audience. You know, I’m a proud Canadian. I’m a proud Canadian. And I’ve lived overseas – ya. And wherever I’ve been, I’ve always supported progressive policies. So, you know, in 2004, I thought that John Kerry was a better idea than George W. Bush. And only a Conservative would think that George W. Bush was a better choice for the United States. But I can’t vote in the United States. Never did.

Q: How many Canadian elections did you vote in when you were living overseas.

Ignatieff: I voted in a couple. Can’t remember, happy to tell you. But I voted in Canadian elections since I was able to vote.

Joseph Stiglitz on American inequality

Economist Joseph Stiglitz argues that America's growing inequality looks a lot like the kind of inequality that is one of the root causes of the Arab Spring uprisings. Some excerpts:

Economists long ago tried to justify the vast inequalities that seemed so troubling in the mid-19th century—inequalities that are but a pale shadow of what we are seeing in America today. The justification they came up with was called “marginal-productivity theory.” In a nutshell, this theory associated higher incomes with higher productivity and a greater contribution to society. It is a theory that has always been cherished by the rich. Evidence for its validity, however, remains thin . . .

… what happens when a society’s wealth distribution becomes lopsided. The more divided a society becomes in terms of wealth, the more reluctant the wealthy become to spend money on common needs. The rich don’t need to rely on government for parks or education or medical care or personal security—they can buy all these things for themselves. In the process, they become more distant from ordinary people, losing whatever empathy they may once have had. They also worry about strong government—one that could use its powers to adjust the balance, take some of their wealth, and invest it for the common good. The top 1 percent may complain about the kind of government we have in America, but in truth they like it just fine: too gridlocked to re-distribute, too divided toa do anything but lower taxes . . .

Virtually all U.S. senators, and most of the representatives in the House, are members of the top 1 percent when they arrive, are kept in office by money from the top 1 percent, and know that if they serve the top 1 percent well they will be rewarded by the top 1 percent when they leave office . . .

When you look at the sheer volume of wealth controlled by the top 1 percent in this country, it’s tempting to see our growing inequality as a quintessentially American achievement—we started way behind the pack, but now we’re doing inequality on a world-class level . . .

The rules of economic globalization are likewise designed to benefit the rich: they encourage competition among countries for business, which drives down taxes on corporations, weakens health and environmental protections, and undermines what used to be viewed as the “core” labor rights, which include the right to collective bargaining. Imagine what the world might look like if the rules were designed instead to encourage competition among countries for workers. Governments would compete in providing economic security, low taxes on ordinary wage earners, good education, and a clean environment—things workers care about.