Month: July 2009

Free Kevin!

Up on our site now:

More than 130 economists have signed an open letter to parliamentarians calling on MPs to provide the fledgling Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer with the independence and funding required to continue the “commendable record” of analyzing the state of the federal government's finances.

The open letter, published online earlier this week, is as much a challenge to Liberal MPs as it is to Conservatives. MPs from both parties have been lukewarm in support of Parliamentary Budget Office, set up in the spring of 2008 ostensibly to provide an independent assessment of government spending and revenue plans and estimates. The inaugural officer, Kevin Page, in the view of some of those MPs, has shown perhaps too much of an independent streak in the reports he's published over the last year.

Noting the office has recently been subjected to bipartisan attacks, University of British Columbia economics professor Kevin Milligan said, “We write in support of this nascent, innovative, and necessary institution.” Milligan's open letter has been signed by more than 135 economists from universities and organizations across the country. The list includes 15 past presidents of the Canadian Economics Association and seven Canada Research Chairs.

“Without the (budget officer), important and vital information about Canada's fiscal position would be lost,” the letter said.

The committee of MPs and Senators that runs the Library of Parliament and, hence, the PBO has some very different views about what the PBO should be doing. The 40 page report may be a bit dry but you can get the gist of how they wish to clamp down on Page by reading the recommendations. This one, Recommendation 6, likely stands out:

That the Speakers of the Senate and the House of Commons instruct the Parliamentary Budget Officer that a response to a request made by a parliamentarian or a parliamentary committee in accordance with the legislated mandate shall remain confidential, until the confidentiality is lifted by the parliamentarian or the parliamentary committee making the request.

Though the Liberals on the Library committee did not issue a dissenting report or supplementary recommendations, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is on the record as saying something quite different about the PBO. Here's Ignatieff responding to some questions I put to him in a scrum on March 12 this year:

Me: Good afternoon, Mr. Ignatieff. Could I ask you about the Parliamentary Budget Officer? As you know, there's been some debate about the independence of that office, his battle with the librarian. Where do you see that? Should that be a truly independent officer of Parliament?

Ignatieff: We think it should, yes.

Me: And what are you doing sort of towards resolving that when some of your MPs are not of that view?

Ignatieff: We're supporting the — defending the independence of the PBO, no question about it. Parliament needs it. The country needs it. So we're strongly in support.

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Some clarifications on my views of Harper overseas

Embassy Magazine reporter Michelle Collins interviewed me earlier this week about my impressions of Prime Minister Stephen Harper when I have travelled overseas with him.

She interviewed others for this article as well — though none of the others quoted in the piece have, so far as I know, ever travelled overseas with a prime minister. The result of her work is in an article titled “G8 Attack Reflects Poorly on Canada: Experts”

I show up in the following bit:

Canwest News reporter David Akin said that when he follows the prime minister to such summits, the Canadian leader is so poorly known that photographers are constantly asking who Mr. Harper is.

Mr. Akin recalled that at the prime minister's first G8 Summit in St. Petersburg in 2006, Mr. Harper avoided the press for three entire days, even as every other G8 leader loudly trumpeted their messages to the international press gathered on site.

“He was so uncomfortable he was invisible, he physically looked smaller in that '06 summit…he seemed really out of his element,” Mr. Akin said. “When you're travelling with him, there's never enough information about his activities, about who he's speaking to. The read-outs that we get from the PMO communications when he meets with other leaders are frustratingly bland and vague.”

While these quotations attributed to me are correct, they represent an incomplete response give to the questions Collins put to me. Indeed, since the headline is “G8 Attack Reflects Poorly on Canada: Experts” you might get the impression that I am one of the “experts” who holds that view. For the record, I am neither an expert nor do I hold that view. In fact, when asked specifically by Collins if that's what I believed, I replied that the attack did not reflect in any way on Canada simply because most other delegations don't pay much attention to Canada. Canadians think it makes a difference to our world standing but I have seen no evidence when I'm at these summits that it makes a difference one way or the other.
Some other clarifications and amplifications:

  • I told Collins that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is rarely recognized by the foreign press but I also said that that goes for any Canadian prime minister. It was the same for former prime ministers Paul Martin and Jean Chretien not just for Harper.
  • Prime Minister Stephen Harper did indeed look out of his element the 2006 G8 summit. It was the first major international meeting for both Harper and his advisors. As I told Collins, many of those same advisors who now travel with the prime minister travelled have been travelling with him since 2008. And I told Collins that while he did seem “smaller” in 2006, that is no longer the case. While many have appropriate questions as to the objectives he wants to accomplish while overseas and the means he uses to accomplish those objectives, there is no denying that he is much more sure-footed overseas and has, in some cases, been able to bring other leaders around to his view. (The most notable example of that for me was the 2007 Commonwealth Summit in Uganda when Harper and Canada were seen as blocking movement on the climate change file and yet, the final communique reflected Canada's rather different view of this file.). The key point, though is: While he seemed “out of his element” in 2006, I no longer have that impression and told Collins as much.
  • I and many of my press gallery colleagues continue to complain about the amount and quality of information given to us while we're travelling with the prime minister. It is improving but remains a constant complaint.

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Civic and Corolla Canada's most popular cars but sales of high-end cars outperform the market

Auto analyst Dennis Desrosiers published his monthly scorecard of the top-selling vehicles in Canada.

With the exception of the Hyundai Elantra and the Ford Escape, all 20 vehicles on the Top 10 passenger car list and the top 10 light truck list are showing year-to-date declines. In other words, the first six months of 2008 was better for everybody than the first six months of this year. Not that's a surprise.

Here's Desrosiers' take on the big picture for June:

“… small entry level vehicles are hurting as much as any other size of vehicle. These are much lower priced obviously so one would think that they would be drawing in consumers from other segments. This may be true but these vehicles also play to the lower quartile of consumers from an economic perspective and these are the consumers most hurt from the recession and therefore are not buying. The best performing segments are the large/luxury/sport segment which are down 12.6 percent YTD but still much better than the market which is down by 18.3 percent. Mid-sized family vehicles are the worse performing sector down 26.8 percent on the month and 22.3 percent on the year.”

Here's the top-ten selling passenger cars in the country in June, ranked according to the number of units sold. In brackets is the percentage change in sales in June 2009 compared to June 2008:

  1. Honda Civic 5,883 ( -24.40% )
  2. Toyota Corolla 4,789 ( -20.10% )
  3. Mazda3 4,276 ( -22.00% )
  4. Hyundai Elantra 3,244 ( 187.10% )
  5. Ford Focus 2,851 ( -8.80% )
  6. Hyundai Accent 2,575 ( -34.10% )
  7. Chevrolet Impala 2,297 ( 30.70% )
  8. Ford Fusion 2,130 ( 12.90% )
  9. Toyota Matrix 2,008 ( -26.10% )
  10. Nissan Versa 1,974 ( 10.60% )

Here's the top-ten selling light trucks, SUVs and minivans in the country in June, ranked according to the number of units sold. In brackets is the percentage change in sales in June 2009 compared to June 2008:

  1. Ford F-Series 8,487 ( 38.50% )
  2. Ford Escape 4,917 ( 41.30% )
  3. Ford Ranger 3,067 ( 50.20% )
  4. Toyota RAV4 2,615 ( 49.90% )
  5. Dodge Ram 2,531 ( -26.10% )
  6. Hyundai Sante Fe 2,254 ( 104.20% )
  7. Honda CR-V 2,238 ( 54.70% )
  8. Chevrolet Silverado 2,016 ( -10.60% )
  9. GMC Sierra 1,958 ( -21.10% )
  10. Ford Edge 1,662 ( 23.30% )
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GDP in every province — including you, Saskatchewan – will shrink this year: TD

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TD Economics releases its latest forecast for provincial economic performance [PDF] and, if there's anything encouraging about it, it's that things are not likely to get worse. Are they getting better? Not much, according to TD economist Pascal Gauthier.

Some excerpts:

“A slumping U.S. economy, weak commodity prices and increasingly cautious consumers across the nation have meant there has simply been no place to hide [but] the major pieces of the economic and financial puzzle seem to be falling into place for a recovery, albeit modest, to start taking hold late this year..”

“While Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta have already been hit with significant job losses, we believe Québec and the Atlantic region might have some unfortunate catch up with further losses to come in the months ahead.”

The real gross domestic product or the sum of all provinces is forecast to shrink this year. (TD chart on the left) Real GDP is the sum of all economic activity in a region after adjusting for the effects of price inflation.

Manitoba's economy will shrink by just 0.7 per cent while Newfoundland and Labrador's economy will shrink by 4 per cent.

Next year, TD says, it will get a bit better with all provinces seeing real GDP provinces, led by B.C. which should post 2.1 per cent GDP growth. Every economist has a different view of what they consider healthy GDP growth but most would say that, for Canada, healthy growth is in the 2-3 per cent range. TD believes Canada's GDP growth in 2010 will be well below that at just 1.4 per cent. And, with the exception of B.C., no province is expected to see growth of two per cent.

All of which adds up to what could be long, slow, tepid recovery.

“All said, we do not find potent enough drivers that would convince us there will be significant regional differentiation during the initial economic recovery phase. Following a severe recession in most parts of the country, the foundation for a more robust and sustained recovery will be laid from coast to coast. Among other factors, we will look to local housing markets, net migration flows, consumer, business, and government investments and balance sheets to see which regions build a firmer foundation than others, which will drive wedges in performances beyond next year.:

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Immigration Minister takes to Twitter on Visa issue

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Jason Kenney, Canada's immigration and citizenship minister, did the rounds of most newsrooms in Ottawa – including ours — explaining the government's position on a story my colleague Peter O'Neill broke yesterday that, beginning early this morning, all visitors to Canada from the Czech Republic and Mexico need a visa to get into Canada. The visa requirement, by itself, doesn't prevent people from coming to Canada but, because it involves more paperwork that must be completed in advance of a visit, it does discourage spur-of-the-moment trips and can be a barrier that will reduce visitors from a given country.

In response, the Czech Republic recalled its ambassador to Canada and several refugee assistance groups decried the message.

Here's what Kenney had to say on Twitter (@MinJK) about the issue (The time element is relative to about 9 pm EDT):

  • Two important announcements about protecting the integrity of Canada's immigration system: http://is.gd/1xvyM http://is.gd/1xvGf4:15 PM Jul 13th
  • Its important to understand that visas are normal, not exceptional. There is a visa requirement on all foreign nationals in the law (IRPA)..23 minutes ago
  • @starkob Several weeks notice was given to the 2 relevant governments, but public notice would likely lead to a flood of last minute claims 11 minutes ago
  • @mattjuniper Actually standard practice is to give no notice: the 48 hour grace time was extraordinary. Longer notice = flood of ref claims.27 minutes ago from web in reply to mattjuniper
  • ..and on most (140+) countries. Exemptions are granted for some countries if they meet objective criteria, such as low rate of asylum claims20 minutes ago from web
  • # Re: more staff, tripling the size of the IRB would be insufficient to deal with the current refugee backlog: 30% increase in claims in 2008.9 minutes ago from web
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UW researchers combine 'SneakerNet' and USB sticks to bring Internet access to developed world

Old-time geeks will remember what it meant to use 'SneakerNet' to transfer data between two computers. You stuck your 5 1/4-inch floppy diskette in your your computer's diskette drive, transferred all of a maxiumum of 360 kilobytes of data , and then put on your sneakers and walked the diskette over to the other computer where you transferred the information.

Now, a University of Waterloo research team has combined the principle behind SneakerNet with USB memory sticks — which, for ten or twenty dollars can store several gigabytes of encrypted data — for project called VLink, which researchers say will help extend the functionality of the Internet to less-developed, rural areas of the world.

Here's the press release out this morning from UW:

Researchers at the University of Waterloo are making Internet access affordable in the developing world with an innovative combination of cheap, robust hardware and free, open-source software.

Building on ideas initially developed for inter-planetary communication, their 'Vlink' software permits reliable e-mail exchange over unreliable communication links. Where no communication links exist, VLink allows messages to be exchanged using USB memory sticks physically carried between desktop PCs. VLink can also transfer urgent e-mail using cellphone text messages.

Using VLink, governments and non-governmental organizations can disseminate agricultural, educational and financial data to rural residents. By providing access to this data from a rural PC and the ability to consult an expert over e-mail, VLink allows farmers, teachers and nurses in rural areas to get targeted expert help when they need it. Moreover, by moving large amounts of data to and from rural areas, business process outsourcers can use VLink to provide data entry jobs for rural youth, reducing overcrowding in cities.

“Unlike other approaches to rural Internet access, the VLink system is highly-reliable because it expects disconnections and gracefully deals with them,” explains Srinivasan Keshav, a professor with Waterloo's school of computer science, who guided the development of the VLink system. “VLink is inexpensive and easy to deploy, requiring only two Windows XP Pro PCs and a single USB memory stick to get started.” The team is currently testing the system at two locations in India.

VLink breaks new ground in using a USB memory stick to store encrypted 'frozen packets.' USB memory sticks contain no moving parts, and are small, lightweight and removable, making them ideally suited to conditions in developing countries. E-mail and data generated at a rural desktop are stored on a USB memory stick which can then be carried or mailed to a location that has Internet access. Here, the packets are 'thawed' and uploaded to the Internet.

The same USB memory stick also carries e-mail and data back to rural users. This eliminates the need for an end-to-end link, reducing costs. Data stored on a USB memory stick is encrypted, making it suitable for medical or financial information.

Where communication links, such as dial-up lines, already exist, VLink software adds reliability, allowing rural PCs to deal with link failures. Moreover, VLink allows e-mail and short, urgent data to be sent using cellphone text messaging, which is widely available in the developing world.

The researchers released the beta version of their software in June 2009 for testing by interested parties. This version of their software includes an e-mail application that allows rural users to exchange e-mail and attachments with other users anywhere in the world. Several applications relying on the VLink software are under active development.

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The Queen likes the little guy from Shawinigan – a lot apparently

No one tells the Queen who deserves to get the Order of Merit. It's a gift that is hers to give and apparently she likes the little guy from Shawinigan enough to give it to him. Here's what it says at the official Web site for the Queen:

The Order of Merit, founded by 1902 by King Edward VII, is a special mark of honour conferred by the Sovereign on individuals of exceptional distinction in the arts, learning, sciences and other areas such as public service.
Appointments to the Order are in the Sovereign's personal gift and ministerial advice is not required.

I do believe, looking through the current list of recipients, that Jean Chrétien will be the only living Canadian (and certainly the only Quebecer) to have this honour. (Helpful readers have mentioned other Canadian recipients of the O.M) Other recipients include Her Majesty's (controversial) portrait painter Lucian Freud, Tim Berners-Lee (he invented a little software application called The World Wide Web) and playwright Tom Stoppard.

The Liberals are very happy about this, as they should be:

Statement from Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff on the appointment of the Right Honourable Jean Chrétien to the Order of Merit:

It is with great pride that I congratulate the Right Honourable Jean Chrétien for being named a member of the Order of Merit, a prestigious honour bestowed by Queen Elizabeth II.

The Order of Merit – a special mark of honour on individuals of exceptional distinction in the arts, learning, sciences and other areas such as public service – represents a fitting tribute to this truly great Canadian. From his first election to Parliament in 1963 until his retirement from politics in 2003 as one of Canada's longest-serving prime ministers, Mr. Chrétien left an unequalled legacy of distinguished public service.

The winner of three consecutive majority governments, as Prime Minister of Canada, Jean Chrétien is remembered for slaying the deficit, presiding over a period of sustained economic growth, and strengthening Canada's national unity.

He joins an impressive list of members of the Order, including Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher and Tom Stoppard. Past members include Mother Teresa, Dr. Albert Schweitzer and Sir Winston Churchill.

On behalf of the Liberal Party of Canada and our entire Liberal Parliamentary caucus, I once again offer my congratulations to Mr. Chrétien. He has made Canada very proud.

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The Colonel Behind Republicans for Ignatieff

I, too, got pretty much the same response as Kady to my query, submitted via an online form, when I asked who was behind Republicans for Ignatieff. On Sunday we both get on e-mail from “The Colonel” behind the site. I've put the version I got below. (I don't think there's much difference between, the responder has a bit more at the top here, saying his group is small but growing, but the other stuff is pretty similar to Kady's)

Now, when I first saw Republicans for Ignatieff, I strongly suspected that the Conservative Party of Canada was unofficially behind it and/or responsible for it. I based that hunch on the fact some Conservative operatives have been known to do some stuff like this before; when do they stuff like this it tends to be a little more sophisticated; and, most of all, the point of the site fits right into the narrative currently being pushed about Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, warning Canadians that he is “Just Visiting”.

The group has a “press release” scheduled for tomorrow morning at 9 a.m. and this week, it says at the site, “Republicans for Ignatieff will be making the case – using Michael's own words – for targeted assassinations and coercive interrogations.” Now that can't be for real, can it?

I used to think it wasn't for real but I'm less inclinded to think so after reading the e-mail reply from The Colonel behind the site. Tell me what you think and, more importantly, if you were a politics reporter, what do you do with this? Thoughts on tracking down the real people behind this?

From: semperficolonel@aol.com
Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2009 09:00:01 -0500
To: dakin@canwest.com
Subject: Republicans For Ignatieff

Thanks for your e-mail and interest in the site.

I should tell you right off the top that I am not a media savvy individual nor do I crave media attention for myself. This is not about me it's about Michael Ignatieff. Our group is small (but growing) and members live in both the United States and Canada.

The site is what it is: a modest attempt to show why Republicans want Michael Ignatieff to become Prime Minister of Canada.

We've received several thousand unique visitors – more than we imagined.

Speaking for myself, I can tell you:

– I live in the United States.

– Everyone, except my Mother, calls me The Colonel.

– I am deeply invested in foreign affairs.

– I believe energy security is the single biggest foreign affairs challenge facing America.

– I first discovered Michael Ignatieff when I picked up a copy of Blood and Belonging in 1994.

– Although I don't agree with everything Michael Ignatieff stands for, particularly on social policy, I strongly support him on energy security and the war on terror, the two issues that matter most to me.

I suspect this is the case for most other Republican supporters of Michael Ignatieff.

– I also admire Ignatieff for his willingness to admit hard truths that many Canadians are unwilling to accept, particularly the strategic importance of the tar sands, the need for coercive interrogation as a tool in the war on terror, and the irrelevance of Canadian foreign policy under the Chretien and Martin administrations. In challenging the conventional wisdom of his own party, he reminds me a great deal of Tony Blair who took on the trade unions and the peace movement and re-invented the British Labour Party, culminating of course in his courageous support of President Bush in Iraq.

At this point, we have not, as a group, decided on an official spokesperson.

Over time, we hope to inform, educate and recruit more people to join us in backing Michael Ignatieff.

Thanks again for your interest.

The Colonel

semperficolonel@aol.com

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Ablonczy had no money, little power to do anything to boost tourism, briefing notes show

I'll post more excerpts later from the MInisterial Briefing Notes given to Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism, Diane Ablonczy,but here's the story that resulted:

The Canadian tourism industry is in dire straits, but federal Tourism Minister Diane Ablonczy has little money or legislative authority to do much about it, according to briefing notes obtained by Canwest News Service.

Ablonczy's ability to influence federal policy on tourism was further diminished late last month after she was stripped of funding responsibility for a key program after angering social Conservatives in caucus when she approved a grant to Toronto's gay Pride Week.

But even before that, the bureaucrats in her own department had warned her of the difficult task she faced as the lead cabinet minister responsible for tourism, an industry that generates about $74 billion a year and employs 660,000 Canadians.

“Your ability to help maintain and boost growth and competitiveness is constrained by current market forces, lack of funds for new or enhanced program spending and the broad dispersion of policies and programs of support across the federal government,” an anonymous bureaucrat writes in the ministerial briefing books given to Ablonczy, a Calgary MP, after she was sworn in as minister of state for small business and tourism last November.

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Would Canadians elect a PM who is a social conservative and fiscal 'progressive"?

Paul Wells, channelling Andrew Coyne and Chantel Hebert at the same time (Bravo! remarkable achievement!), notes that “while many Canadian politicians claim to be socially progressive and fiscally conservative, [Prime Minister Stephen] Harper is turning out to be the opposite on both scales.”

In other words, as events this week have underlined, his government is socially conservative and fiscally ultra-liberal.

As I hate to develop a bias in one direction or the other, I'd be pleased if someone might disabuse of this notion if, in fact, I'm correct.

And, more importantly, will Canadians elect a government with record spending levels, a record deficit, who believes ministers ought to be sidelined for funding a parade celebrating gay culture that brings in millions in tax revenue?

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