Month: October 2008

Some quick observations on B.C. and the Arctic ridings:

BRITISH COLUMBIA

BURNABY-DOUGLAS
BURNABY-NEW WESTMINSTER

Early in the campaign, Conservatives were boasting about knocking out NDP incumbents Peter Siksay in DOUGLAS and Peter Julian in NEW WESTMINSTER which, frankly, surprised me. I don't think the Tories are boasting any more. There will likely be gains in B.C. for the blue team but in these two ridings, Orange stands tall.

ESQUIMALT-JUAN DE FUCA
The Green vote nationally could be in the high single digits but in this riding, held by Liberal Keith Martin, it could be as high as 15 per cent. Even worse for Martin, Green voters could be mostly former Liberals. That could help Conservative Troy DeSouza squeak threw here in a riding with a big military component, thanks to CFB Comox.

FLEETWOOD-PORT KELLS
Conservative incumbent Nina Grewal has won twice here but last time she squeaked by Liberal Brenda Locke with less than 1,000 votes. If Liberals are finally finding their feet in B.C. and are looking for a win, Locke is back to take on Grewal.

KAMLOOPS-THOMPSON-CARIBOO
Conservative incumbent Betty Hinton is retiring and Cathy McLeod steps up to see if she can take her place. The NDP, though, think they're poised for a steal here with Michael Crawford.

NORTH VANCOUVER
RICHMOND

In NORTH VANCOUVER, former mayor and Liberal incumbent Don Bell should be fine. And in RICHMOND, former cabinet minister Raymond Chan should be fine, too. Should be. But the numbers at one point weren't looking good for either Bell or Chan. But then, in RICHMOND, Conservative candidate Alice Wong has been caught saying some oddly reactionary things and that might help Chan. But the Tories are at the gates in both ridings and pounding hard.

SAANICH-GULF ISLANDS
The incumbent here is Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn. Sources tell me he's in trouble. Sources tell me he's not. Yes he is. No he's not. And so on … What I do know is that some polls before the debate had Lunn at 38 per cent. But here, the NDP candidate ceased to campaign (though will still be on the ballot) after it emerged that he emerged from his clothes a few years back in front of a few teenaged girls. So, if the NDP and Green decide to support Liberal Briony Penn, she's in. Penn has a Ph.D but is notable in B.C. political circles for riding topless on a horse, a la Lady Godiva, during a protest in Vancouver once. I bet this will be one of the last races to be declared on Tuesday night.

SURREY NORTH
The ghost of Chuck Cadman still haunts this campaign in the form of accusations by Liberals that Cadman was offered a bribed to vote with the government in late 2005. Harper, himself, is suing the Liberals for slander. Meanwhile, Cadman's widow Dona is running for the Conservatives in a seat where there is no incumbent, thanks to the retirement of NDP MP Penny Priddy.

VANCOUVER CENTRE
This could be the wackiest race of the entire night and, in my view, the one riding that actually could elect a Green MP. Here we have incumbent Liberal Hedy Fry battling Green party deputy leader Adriane Carr, former provincial Liberal cabinet minister turned Conservative candidate Lorne Mayencourt and UBC professor and pundit Michael Byers. According to one party's independent polling before the debates, all four were at 24 per cent. Someone could win this thing with 27 per cent. As they say in sports betting, pick 'em!

VANCOUVER QUADRA
WEST VANCOUVER-SUNSHINE COAST-SEA-TO-SKY COUNTRY

In QUADRA, Joyce Murray just eked out a byelection victory for the Liberals a few months ago but she may not have the seat for long. This, along with SUNSHINE COAST, are the best chances the Conservatives have to win a seat in Vancouver proper. SUNSHINE COAST is held by Blair Wilson who was elected as a Liberal, got tossed from his caucus after some personal finance irregularities surfaced, and, after sitting as independent for a spell, decided to become the first-ever Green Party MP. Wilson never actually took his seat in the House of Commons as a Green since he crossed during the summer recess. And he likely won't ever get the chance to sit in the Commons again. Until Wilson, this riding had been Tory John Reynolds' fiefdom. It goes back to the blue team Tuesday.

THE NORTH

YUKON
Liberal Larry Bagnell is beloved in the Yukon. Not only will he win again, but, word has reached the rumour mills in Ottawa that he's getting married. Congrats! Whoops — word reached the rumour mills about a summer too late! Larry got married last summer. The big news is that he's about to be a dad.

NUNAVUT
It's a long flight up and back to Iqaluit, the biggest settlement in this eastern Arctic riding, but three leaders have made the trip in this campaign. Liberal MP Nancy Karetak-Lindell is retiring and everyone, it seems, is gunning for this one. The Conservatives have a former provincial health and finance minister running for them and, my sources tell me, Leona Aglukkaq is the first Inuit woman to make cabinet if the Tories are elected. (Would she be the first Inuit of either gender? Looking that up …) Meanwhile, the Liberal candidate Kirt Ejesiak is widely seen as very capable as is the NDP candidate Paul Irngaut. Oh — and I'm told it's the first time we've seen an all-Inuit race here.

WESTERN ARCTIC
Dennis Bevington is the NDP incumbent but, here again, the Conservatives think they have cabinet material if Brendan Bell can win. Bell is a former finance minister in the territorial government.

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Some quick takes on races to watch in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces:
NFLD –
AVALON
Incumbent Conservative Fabian Manning defied Danny Williams when Manning was a backbencher in Williams’ govt and earned his ‘rep’ as being one of the only politicians to stand up to Danny and go on to electoral victory, albeit at the federal level. As the only Conservative incumbent on the island, Manning will feel the brunt of the “wrath of Danny” and his ABC movement.
ST JOHN’S EAST
NDP candidate here is Jack Harris, a former MP and a former leader of the provincial NDP. He’s also one of Williams’ buddies (former law partner I believe). If the Conservative vote collapses on the island, the NDP could have their first MP from here in a long time. The riding was held by retiring Tory Norman Doyle.
PEI
EGMONT –
The Tories were shut out of the four seats on the Island in 2006, though Harper was on the Island twice in 2006. He was on the island twice this time, too, including Monday. The Tories feel good about winning Egmont. Incumbent Liberal Joe McGuire is retiring. The Liberals had a candidate, then he quit, the Tories said, because of the carbon tax.
MALPEQUE
Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz joked that he wished Liberal MP Wayne Easter got hit with listeriosis. It wasn’t a funny joke but the sentiment is one widely shared in the Tory caucus. Easter is among a handful of Liberals loathed by the Tories. Easter should win but the Tories would love surprise victory here.
NOVA SCOTIA
CENTRAL NOVA
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May tries to knock off Defence Minister Peter MacKay. It looks like this will be the second time May's name has been on a ballot — and the second time she will lose.
WEST NOVA
Liberal Robert Thibault was first elected in 2000 but his plurality has declined every election. In 2006, he beat Greg Kerr by a few hundred votes. Kerr is back for round 2 but Thibault said he was too old. That line prompted Marjory LeBreton to take a shot at Thibault. (Kerr is just 60) and Thibault told LeBreton to go back to serving tea to Brian Mulroney. Speaking of which — Mulroney sued Thibault for libel during the whole Mulroney-Schreiber affair. Like Easter, Thibault is a Liberal Tories would take personal satisfaction in beating.
NEW BRUNSWICK

FREDERICTON
A small-c conservative riding that had been returning Liberal Andy Scott. Scott has now retired, and there’s a good chance this could be a rare Atlantic Canada win for the Conservatives.
MADAWASKA-RESTIGOUCHE
Liberal Jean-Claude D’Amours has been targeted as weak by the Tories who want to steal this northern New Brunswick riding. Harper campaigned there right after the debates.
QUEBEC
AHUNTSIC
If Liberal fortunes in Quebec are reviving, this would be a place to start. Liberal Eleni Bakopanos lost to the BQ in 2006; she’s back and hopes to win it for the Libs. Maria Mourani holds this for the Bloc right now.
BEAUHARNOIS-SALABERRY
DRUMMOND
RICHMOND-ARTHABASKA
SHERBROOKE
If the Conservatives really are going to be Bloc killers, then the BQ incumbents in thee ridings to the south and east of Montreal should be worried. Folks here, the parties say, are small-c conservatives and won’t be phased one bit by plans to cut funding to those snooty downtown Montreal artists. SHERBROOKE is in the neighborhood but that race has an extra dynamic with Tory Andre Bachand running against BQ incumbent Serge Cardin. Bachand was Jean Charest’s emissary in Ottawa for the last few years and, before that, was a PC MP. He once hated Harper and hated the merger. Now he thinks Harper is fantastic. If Charest’s people help Bachand out, it could be a long night for Cardin. Late polls this week, though show Bachand is way back in SHERBROOKE and the Tories are trailing the Bloc elsewhere.
TROIS-RIVIERES
As our colleague Liz Thompson said, if the Trois-Rivieres of the world start throwing out BQ MPs in favour of Conservatives, here comes a majority government. Quebec polls seem to indicate BQ incumbent Paule Brunelle here should be safe.
CHICOUTIMI-LE FJORD
ROBERVAL-LAC ST. JEAN
JONQUIERE-ALMA
The region known as the Saguenay was once a three-riding BQ stronghold. Then, in 2006, Jean-Pierre Blackburn came out of nowhere to win JONQUIERE-ALMA. He became the Conservative’s chief political minister for “the regions” in Quebec and his work paid off with a byelection victory in the second of the Saguenay three, ROBERVAL-LAC ST. JEAN when Denis Lebel won a year and a bit ago. Lebel is back to defend his win. In the third of the Saguenay three, BQ incumbent Robert Bouchard is trying to maintain his party’s beach head in the Saguenay from the Tory march. The BQ are muttering that not only will Bouchard hold, but they will knock Blackburn off his perch.
GATINEAU
Bloc MP Richard Nadeau knocked off Liberal incumbent Francoise Boivin in 2006. Boivin is back for a re-match but this time she’s carrying the ball for Jack Layton’s NDP. The NDP think this may be their best chance for another MP from la belle province.
OUTREMONT
Some think Thomas Mulcair could be a successor to Jack Layton if and when that time comes. But Mulcair will have to win this former Liberal stronghold in a general election. He won it a year ago in a byelection. Mulcair’s win was the result of the collapse of the Bloc vote and what Liberals themselves said was a disorganized spirtless fight.
PAPINEAU
A star is born? Justin Trudeau fought for and won the right to try to beat incumbent BQ MP Vivian Barbeau, who, in 2006, knocked out Liberal cabinet minister Pierre Pettigrew.
QUEBEC
BEAUPORT-LIMOILOU
CHARLESBOURG-HAUTE-SAINT-CHARLES
LOUIS-HÉBERT
LOUIS-SAINT-LAURENT
The Tories hold every Quebec City riding except Quebec, the riding in the downtown core. The Tories want it all; BQ incumbent Christiane Gagnon wants to stop them. Not only are Gagnon and the BQ likely to stop them, but the BQ could knock out some Tories. Cons incumbents Sylvie Boucher in BEAUPORT-LIMOILOU, Daniel Petit in CHARLESBOURG, and Luc Harvey in LOUIS-HÉBERT are worried. Heritage Minister Josée Verner is the minister who was supposed to stop those arts funding cuts. Will she suffer as a result in LOUIS-SAINT-LAURENT. On the south shore, Cons incumb Steven Blaney is likely OK in LEVIS-BELLECHASSE as is Jacques Gourde in Lotbinière–Chutes-de-la-Chaudière.
VAUDREUIL-SOULANGES
West end of Montreal, just off the island, is former senator Michael Fortier’s last stand. Had a decent shot at the beginning of the campaign, but hope may be fading with Quebecers’ fury over arts cuts and harsh sentences for teenagers. One to watch, nonetheless.
WESTMOUNT VILLE-MARIE
How could this not be a Liberal seat? Was held by Lucienne Robillard, then when she retired, famous astronaut Marc Garneau picked up the nomination. But he’s facing a decent challenge from the NDP, who are running local CBC radio host Anne Lagace Dowson. Can Dowson do what Mulcair did next door in Outremont?

I've just driven from Ottawa to Montreal. I finish this campaign at Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's election night headquarters in a hotel in his riding of St. Laurent-Cartierville, near Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport.
On election night I and my colleague Hannah Thibedeau will be reporting from here during Global Television's network special (Do be sure to tune in!).
The hotel the Liberals have booked is the Four Points Sheraton and, like the Liberal Party, it has seen better days. Like the Liberals, the hotel owners have been frantically undergoing renovations to get ready for Tuesday. Like the Liberals, the hotel has got a lot of new stuff but there are still parts that are under construction or need updating.
I've been on the phone with Liberal incumbents over the last couple of days. They are cautiously optimistic and they sense that the momentum has been on their side over the last week of the campaign. But still, they worry the new momentum may not be enough to put them over the top.
Pollster Nik Nanos just released his final poll for the campaign. Nanos, political junkies will recall, got the popular vote pretty much spot on in 2006. If he's right again, you're looking at slightly weakened Tory minority — again. Here's his final numbers:
Conservatives: 34.2 per cent
Liberals: 26.7
NDP: 21.4
BQ: 9.5
Greens: 8.2
(Nanos' says his poll of 1,400 Canadians take over the last three nights is accurate to within 2.6 percentage points 19 times out of 20)
Some observations on the numbers:
• If the Conservatives do, in fact, come in at 34.2 on Tuesday, they will have done worse than 2006 when they scored 36 per cent of the popular vote.
• If the Liberals score 26.7 per cent, that would be a disaster. Their 2006 popular support was 30 per cent and that was historically low. When John Turner was getting wiped out by Brian Mulroney in 1984, the Liberals still scored 28 per cent. As I blogged earlier, anything below 28 per cent gives Dion the lowest popular vote in Liberal history except for the very first election the new Dominion of Canada had in 1867 when Liberal leader George Brown notched just 22.67 per cent of popular vote against the very popular John A. Macdonald. Dion says he won't quit as a result of Tuesday's vote but if the popular vote is not at least where it was in 2006, he can expect there will be those in his party who will point at the popular vote and tell him it's time to go.
• If the NDP numbers hold, they should be very happy. They notched about 17 per cent in 2006 and Jack Layton, with a strong campaign, will have improved on that. His seat totals, though, will very much depend on how the vote splits in some key ridings in Ontario and in British Columbia.
• The Bloc scored 11 per cent of the “national” vote, good enough for 48 seats. They may lose the odd seat but they pick up the odd seat to stay pretty much where they are, give or take a couple.
• The Greens got five per cent last time and will do better this time but it's probably not enough for a seat in the House. (If they get one, my money is on Vancouver Centre where Green deputy leader Adriane Carr is up against Liberal incumbent Hedy Fry.) Still, by my calculation, every one per cent of the popular vote nationally, translates into an extra $275,000 a year in terms of public subsidy and that will give them some more resources to build on.

Attentive readers of this blog will remember the sceptical eye cast at a poll of Guelph voters taken by a Winnipeg company last summer in the midst of what was just a byelection there.

That poll showed that it was going to be a Liberal win in a cakewalk.

Well, Allan Bruinooge — the Winnipeg pollster who is the brother of the Winnipeg Conservative MP Rod — went back to Guelph for the general election and, this time, he finds that the Conservative candidate is poised to win a squeaker.

Given Guelph's voting history, that makes some sense. With two exceptions in the last 50 years, Guelph's MP has always been on the government side of the House. One of those exceptions was the last Parliament, where the Conservatives formed the government but Guelph's MP Brenda Chamberlain was on the Liberal benches.

Here's the headline number from Bruinooge's company, Klr-Vu Research:

Conservative Gloria Kovach: 29.94 %
Liberal Frank Valeriote: 27.63 %
NDP Thomas King: 21.42 %
Green Charles Nagy: 21 %

You can read more about his methodology — which involves automated robot callers and touchtone responses — but here's what he says about the accuracy:
“This poll was completed Oct 8th 2008, from unique households in the Federal Riding of Guelph. 1,711 completed responses out of 13,307 possible respondents, for a response level of 13% with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of 2.31%”

And, as he noted in a e-mail message himself, he himself is the poll's sponsor. (Elections Canada requires that the polling company and the poll sponsor be identified in any poll published during the writ period — something he did not do in the first byelection poll).

The cool pic I've included with this post, by the way, was taken by Rockwood Ray”. It'a shot of the northeast corner of MacDonnell and Wyndham Streets, about a block east of an apartment I onced lived in. I haven't asked Ray for permission to throw his pic up here but I hope he's OK with that — and I trust readers of this blog will click back through to see the other cool work Ray's done.

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Elections Canada over the weekend released the spending limits for all candidates and parties.
Spending limits are set by the federal elections watchdog based on a number of factors, but mostly based on the number of electors in each district in which the party has a candidate.

Here's the list of how much each party can spend, ranked by the most to the least:

The NDP gets to top the charts because they have a candidate in all 308 ridings.
The Liberals are running in 307. They're skipping Central Nova and so they would lose the amount of funding for all electors in Central Nova. The Tories, too, are running in 307. They won't compete against independent MP André Arthur in the Quebec City-area riding of Portneuf. And the Greens are skipping two ridings: Stéphane Dion's riding in Montreal and independent MP Bill Casey's riding in Nova Scotia.

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elections, NDP, election finances