Harper's Index

From the Liberal War Room comes the first “Harper's Index”. Note to Libs: Did you check with Harper's? I'm pretty sure that Harper's Index is copyrighted 🙂

No doubt we'll see more of these before Oct. 14.

Harper's Index – Week One

Number of campaign events that Stephen Harper has held so far that have been open to members of the public: 0

Number of campaign events that Stéphane Dion has held so far that have been open to members of the public: 18 (including two town halls)

Number of times Jason Kenney has been seen in public since the puffin incident: 0

Total savings a Canadian family could receive from Mr. Harper's two-cent-per-litre diesel tax cut if it fully “trickles down” to consumers and is not absorbed by suppliers or transporters: $15 annually or about 25 cents per week.

Number of Conservative campaign events that used unwitting new and expectant mothers as human props: 1

Number of apologies Mr. Harper has had to issue so far for gaffes by his staff: 2

Number of female party leaders Mr. Harper has tried to exclude from the leader's debate: 1

Number of times the RCMP has been used to physically shield Mr. Harper from questions: 1 (2 if you count This Hour Has 22 Minutes)

Harper and immigrants

Ever since Stephen Harper assumed the leadership of the Conservative Party,it's been hismission to weaken what has traditionally been the power base for the Liberals in Canada's biggest cities, namely, immigrant communities. Early on, Harper tapped Jason Kenney to be in charge of outreach to Canada's New Canadians. Today, asked about reaching out to that vote, Harper gave a nod to Kenney who has a line favoured by the PM: “The challenge we face here is the challenge of converting small-c conservatives into big-c Conservatives.”But though Kenney and other Conservatives do indeed see some affinity between their views and the views of many New Canadians when it comes to issues like same-sex marriage, faith, crime and other social and justice issues, Liberals and political scientists I've spoken to say the sweet spot in those communities are policies that appeal to enterpreneurs, to risk-takers.In his remarks this morning at a press conference in Ottawa, in response to a reporter's question, Harper touched on this. Here's what he said:

Since I brought the new Conservative Party of Canada together, I’ve made it very clear to our people that one of the things Conservatives have to do is to make sure that we are active and we are relevant in all communities in the country. For all kinds of reasons, conservative parties tended to be weak among Francophones and weak among many groups of what we call new Canadians or ethnic voters. I have made a sustained effort, as have a couple of my predecessors, to build up the presence of the Conservative party among these communities. To quote Jason Kenney, the challenge we face here is the challenge of converting small-c conservatives into big-c Conservatives. It’s certainly not an insurmountable obstacle. I think we will see a growth in support (among ethnic voters). Whether it’s small growth or big growth, these efforts have to continue. We cannot be a party simply of old-stock Canadians. That is not feasible. It’s not right. And it doesn’t make any sense. These are people who believe in opportunity, they believe in enterprise, they believe in family. They are people who are close to our views.

Party Standings in Central Canada

If it were still just Lower Canada and Upper Canada in Confederation, we'd be in a minority Liberal government right now.

Stephen Harper leads his campaign into Quebec and Ontario
for the next week so let's review party standings there at dissolution, if we were just counting those two provinces:

Liberals: 62
Conservatives: 52
Bloc Quebecois: 48
NDP: 13
Independent: 2
Vacant: 2

Twitter and Election 2008: I'm being followed by AntiHarperBias!

You've heard of Twitter, right?

Twitter is all the rage among the political class in the U.S.. It's a little less popular here.

Still, politicians and others are fiddling with Twitter. With Twitter, you sign up and then choose some friends, notable, or political journalists (more on that in a sec) and then sit back and read their Twitterfeeds — their thoughts, notes, and updates at Twitter's limit  of 140-characters-at-a-time.I'm following NDP Leader Jack Layton on Twitter, for example, and here's his most recent Twitter update:

Hope to see you all on the campaign trail soon – check out all the videos from week one: http://www.ndp.ca/page/4725

And here's the most recent Twitter entry from some guy named pmharper:

Just played the piano and sang a few songs for the journalists covering our tour. Photo at http://tinyurl.com/6hzfzn

The Liberals put out a press release today to remind people that they were on Twitter, too, as well as other social networking tools like Facebook and Flickr.

Now, as I mentioned, Twitter, and its BlackBerry adjunct TwitterBerry, is hotter in the U.S. Than it is here. Part of the reason for that is that Twitter works best when you can use it a lot — when can constantly twitter about things, where you are, how you feel, and so on. For most people the best device for Twittering, as it's called, is your phone. But in the Canada, most cellphone users have plans where calls are cheap but you pay for every text message. In the U.S., cellphone plans that feature bulk rates for text messages are more common. As a result, U.S. Twitter members tend to Twitter more than Canadians do because Twittering is cheaper there.

Now I can see how Facebook, YouTube, and Flickr will become valuable tools for political operatives but I'm still waiting to see if Twitter will be a killer political app here in Canada.

In the meantime, I got this possibly ominous message from Twitter today. (You can set your Twitter preferences to be notified every time someone signs up to follow you):

Hi, davidakin.AntiHarperBias (AntiHarperBias) is now following your updates on Twitter.Check out AntiHarperBias's profile here:  http://twitter.com/AntiHarperBias

Liberal ads attack Harper as a "great leader"

They're pretty mild as attack ads go, but new Liberal French-language television ads are now airing in Quebec that tell viewers that Stephen Harper is hardly a great leader, because great leaders don't engage in personal attacks and don't use the politics of fear. The “truly, great leader” in this campaign, a voter in one ad says, is Stephane Dion.
No politician appears in these ads. Instead, the ads consist of a several everyday Quebecers shot mostly in close-up on a white background, saying a few lines about Stephen Harper.
One twenty-something man says Harper is following the policies of U.S. President George Bush.  Another says, “They made cuts in culture; they want to censor our films. Is that a strong a leader?”
Each ad ends with the tag, “Cette fois, je vote Liberal” or, “This time, I'm voting Liberal.”
“The criticisms of Mr. Harper's leadership style featured in the new advertisements are the direct result of comments that Liberal candidates across Quebec have heard on doorsteps from average Quebecers,” the Liberals said in a press release.  “While Stéphane Dion and the Liberal Party will continue to engage Canadians in a mature discussion of which Stephen Harper wants no part, preferring personal attack ads to debate. These new Liberal ads stand in sharp contrast with Conservative ads that focus on Stephen Harper as a family man instead of the political issues currently at stake.”

First MP of the 40th Parliament elected!

The Calgary Herald reports that LaVar Payne has won the nomination to carry the Conservative flag in Monte Solberg's southern Alberta riding so, with that fight complete, I'd say we could pretty much swear him in as an MP in the 40th Parliament right now.
In the 2006 election, just under 80 per cent of the electors in Solberg's riding of Medicine Hat put an 'x' beside his name.

Payne told the Herald there's a lot of work to be done.
“Obviously we're running a bit behind the eight ball because the election's been called and I've been just nominated as candidate,” Payne said. “We have to get our riding association get cracking.”

Methinks Payne doth protest too much.
Tthe Liberals, who finished second there last time, have to make up a 40,000-vote difference, to catch Payne and, call me crazy, but that seems like a pretty tall order.
So congratulations, LaVar Payne! In Alberta the toughest part of becoming an MP is winning that nomination battle and you've done it!

Payne, 62, was Solberg's special assistant in the constituency office and said it was his boss who encouraged him to seek the nomination.
Just 260 people showed up at the nomination meeting to pick the region's next MP but Payne did have to fend off two challengers to win.

Maurice Sendak in the Times

Maurice Sendak

Great profile of Maurice Sendak (left) in Sunday's New York Times ..

That Mr. Sendak fears that his work is inadequate, that he is racked with insecurity and anxiety, is no surprise. For more than 50 years that has been the hallmark of his art. The extermination of most of his relatives and millions of other Jews by the Nazis; the intrusive, unemployed immigrants who survived and crowded his parents’ small apartment; his sickly childhood; his mother’s dark moods; his own ever-present depression — all lurk below the surface of his work, frequently breaking through in meticulously drawn, fantastical ways. He is not, as children’s book writers are often supposed, an everyman’s grandpapa. His hatreds are fierce and grand, as if produced by Cecil B. DeMille. He hates his uncle (who made a cruel comment about him when he was a boy); he hates anything to do with God or religion, and Judaism in particular (“We were the ‘chosen people,’ chosen to be killed?”); he hates Salman Rushdie (for writing an excoriating review of one of his books); he hates syrupy animation, which is why he is thrilled with Mr. Jonze’s coming film of his book “Where the Wild Things Are,” despite rumors of studio discontent. “I hate people,” he said at one point, extolling the superior company of dogs, like his sweet-tempered German shepherd, Herman (after Melville). He is, at heart, a curmudgeon, but a delightful one, with a vast range of knowledge, a wicked sense of humor and a talent for storytelling and mimicry. When Mr. Sendak received the 1996 National Medal of Arts, President Bill Clinton told him about one of his own childhood fantasies that involved wearing a long coat with brass buttons when he grew up. “But Mr. President, you’re only going to be president for a year more,” Mr. Sendak said, “you still have time to be a doorman.” Mr. Sendak insisted he was trying to be ingratiating, not funny.

Read the full story

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A pollster just called …

There are some new polls out this weekend, each of which has some different results. Some of those differences are significant; some are slight.

The secret sauce to accurate polling is a jealously guarded secret but much of it has to do with question formulation and the order in which the questions are put to the respondent. I just got a call this afternoon at home from one of the pollsters mentioned below and here's what I was asked (I'm paraphrasing the questions) and in the order I was asked:

– What's the number one issue facing Canada today?

– Would you “consider or not consider” not voting for the following parties? Questioner then listed the parties. The pollster will rotate the order these parties are read out. In may case, it was Cons, Greens, Libs and NDP

– Who would make the best prime minister?

– Would you be very uncomfortable, somewhat uncomfortable, somewhat comfortable or very comfortable with a majority Harper government. I noted that the pollster did not ask “majority Conservative government” but asked “majority Harper government”. Also: I was not asked how I felt about minorities or any other government.

That was about it. I was never asked, oddly enough, “If a vote were held today, which party's candidate would you vote for?”

So here's the latest polls:

Ipsos Reid, which provides polls exclusively to Canwest News Service has: CONS 38 / LIBS 29 / NDP 13 / GRE 11, BQ 8

“Stephen Harper's Tories have a commanding lead over Stéphane Dion's Liberals nationally, but the Conservatives' failure to secure first place in the key electoral battlegrounds of Ontario and Quebec could stop them from winning a majority government..”

Nanos Research has CONS 38, LIBS 30, NDP 15, BQ 9, GRE 8.

Ekos Research has CONS 36, LIBS 26, NDP 19, GRE 11, BQ 8

“The Conservatives still lead in the B.C. lower mainland, but the Liberals remain strong in Toronto and Montreal – their traditional bedrock. ”

Harris/Decima has CONS 41, LIBS 26, NDP 14, GRE 9, BQ 8

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10 Races to care about in Vancouver

The Vancouver Sun has a smart look at 10 important riding races in the Lower Mainland. News to me, bound as I was to my desk in our Ottawa newsroom this week, was that Liberal MP Don Bell, running for re-election in North Vancouver, suffered a mild heart attack at the beginning of the campaign…

10 RACES TO CARE ABOUT



The Vancouver Sun

13 Sep 2008



A dozen or so battleground ridings in Metro Vancouver could determine whether Stephen Harper’s Conservatives form a majority government. The Tories need to make significant gains in Canada’s big cities, including Metro, to reach a majority, said Denis…read more…[alternate link]

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