Month: April 2008

MPs are on the way back to Ottawa this weekend after a week in their ridings. Work in the House of Commons and in committees gets underway Monday.

On the eve of their return, The Toronto Star is out with some new numbers from its pollster Angus Reid. For this poll, survey respondents would have digested news about the RCMP raids of Conservative headquarters and, though the Star piece doesn't mention this, the live-on-TV arrest of a former Liberal official in Québec . So voters had some RCMP action from both parties to consider as they told Angus Reid pollsters which way they were leaning. The end result? Conservatives are still leading in the national sample of 1,001 voters with 33 per cent of respondents saying they'd vote Harper's team. But that's down three percentage points since Angus Reid was last in the field in early April. The Liberals are up four points to 30 per cent.

When it comes to the who's-a-better-leader type of questions, poll respondents overwhelmingly picked Harper over Dion on all characteristics but one: When asked which leader they rated as honest and trustworthy, Dion was picked by 38 per cent; Harper by 33 per cent. And 58 per cent of those polled say the credibility of the Conservatives had been damaged by the RCMP raids.

Many Liberals I spoke to before the break had been worried that possibility of more arrests in Montreal in connection with the sponsorship scandal wouldn't be such a great thing if they were to hit the hustings this spring. But almost as many thought that this spring would be their last, best chance to force an election on their own terms and the Elections Canada investigation might be just the thing for that.

Susan Delacourt, in her reporting on this poll, sounds a note of caution for election-hungry Liberals:

Despite all this bad news for the Tories, however, the poll does not provide any strong encouragement to Liberals to provoke a snap election when the Commons returns Monday after a one-week break. A strong 50 per cent of those polled disagree with having the opposition trigger an early election.

While the Tories are hovering below the 36 per cent popular support they received in the 2006 election, the Liberals are stuck at the same 30 per cent they had in that vote, which saw the end of their 12 years in power. The New Democrats stand at 20 per cent, the Greens at 8 per cent and the Bloc Québécois is at 30 per cent in Quebec.

There's less than a million people in Saskatchewan and, in fact, fewer people lived there at the time of the 2006 census than at the time of the 2001 census. But I suspect that Saskatchewan's population may soon start to grow again as, just like its next door neighbour Alberta, folks from other provinces start showing up looking for work and a top-dollar paycheque. James Woods reports on the front page of today's Regina Leader-Post and on the front of the Saskatoon Star-Phoenix that the flattest of provinces has the fattest of bank accounts:

Saskatchewan's ever-fattening bank account may yet burst as extra cash appears likely to fall into the government's hands thanks to stratospheric resource prices.

But the real big money — with both its benefits and challenges for the province and its residents — may be just around the corner if oil prices continue to climb as some analysts are predicting.

With oil prices reaching $119 US a barrel on Friday, the province appears likely to reap more — perhaps a great deal more — in oil royalties than projected in the budget, with its estimated oil price of $82.36 US for the fiscal year.

The government would take in roughly $300 million more in revenue than projected if oil averaged $100 US, while an average of $110 US would mean about $475 million in additional cash.

Soaring energy prices have already meant that April's sale of Crown lands, the first of six that will be held this year, took in $265 million, more than was projected for the entire year. Expectations are running high for the next sale in June.

And the potash boom that has made Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan the most valued company on the Toronto Stock Exchange at times this week means the province could very easily end up with double the $352 million in royalties it expected in the budget.

“Certainly for this year it looks extremely good,” said Saskatchewan Party Finance Minister Rod Gantefoer in an interview Friday. “I suspect that I'm in the enviable position of probably being in the very best times, maybe in the history of this province, to be finance minister in terms of potential revenue…” [Read the full story]

For a long time, the most valuable company in Canada, as measured by their stock market value, was the Royal Bank of Canada. Banks are a nice steady business that throw off lots of cash every year and it made sense that RBC was king of the hill.

But then Canada became an Energy Superpower (later to be modified by the federal Conservatives as a Clean Energy Superpower) and Calgary-based energy giant Encana Corp. became Canada's most valuable company.

Well, now there's a new giant on the block and they make fertilizer.

Actually, The Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan makes, well, potash, which is a key ingredient in fertilizer. It has a market value of somewhere around $67-billion this Friday afternoon.
Now I know they're celebrating at Potash HQ in Saskatoon over that fact – wow, the Grey Cup and the King of the Market all in one year! — but one of my favourite Bay Street economists, Merrill Lynch's David Wolf (left), has an important comment out this afternoon that just might dampen all this Potash Corp. excitement:

We're not industry specialists. But we think the following four observations are important:

• First, there's plenty of potash – nearly 300 years of known reserves at current consumption rates, according to the International Fertilizer Association.
• Second, you could hardly have found a worse investment in modern times – according to the US Geological Survey, real potash prices have fallen 95% from their record (peace-time) peak in 1919 through the recent trough in 2003.
• Third, the current combined market cap of the three large North American producers (POT, AGU and the US' Mosaic) is bigger than the value of the all of the potash ever sold in the history of the world (or, at least, in the roughly 100 years of available records).
• Fourth, and in our view most importantly, we believe that the euphoria in the fertilizer sector reflects a potentially dangerous broader trend across the commodity spectrum – investors mapping evident short-term supply/demand imbalances into expectations of persistent long-term supply/demand imbalances. We know that a long period of underinvestment in energy, metal and (yes even) potash supply has left producers unable to keep up with rising demand from booming emerging markets. But we also know that higher prices are now giving producers enormous incentive to develop new supply. That can't happen immediately, given long lead times on mines, the seasonality of agriculture, etc. In most cases, however, it eventually will (not a big surprise that no one's found or developed much potash capacity over the past 20 years – nobody's had reason to, until now). And even where supply appears limited over the longer term, such as in oil (where political issues are particularly important), if you can't find more, you find alternatives – as many companies (including the oil majors themselves) are aggressively working towards.
  

ANZAC Day, which will be marked April 25, is Australia's most important national commemoration. It marks the anniversary, according to information in my inbox this morning from the high commissions to Canada of Australia and of New Zealand, of the first time Australian and New Zealand military forces fought together in a major military action.

“The soldiers in those forces quickly became known as ANZACs, and the pride they soon took in that name endures to this day,” according to the commissions.
That major military action was the ill-fated landing at Gallipoli, Turkey during the First World War.

Canadian soldiers have often fought next to and in support of ANZAC troops and so there will be some ANZAC Day events here in Canada this week to which the public is invited. Here's the list provided to us from the high commissions. Note that special attire may be required as well as special instructions for admittance to some venues. All the events happen on April 25, except the one in Newfoundland which will take place on April 24. All times here are local.

Ottawa

Time: 0800hrs (8am)
Location: Canadian War Museum, 1 Vimy Place, Ottawa, ON.
Details: Service followed by gunfire breakfast in the Museum's cafeteria.
Dress: Uniform/Business.

Toronto

Time: 0700hrs (7am)
Location: Canadian Forces College, 215 Yonge Boulevard, Toronto, ON.
Details: Those wishing to attend must contact LTCOL Rory Colquhoun prior to the event to ensure access to the military site.
Dress: Uniform/Business.

London, Ontario
Time: 0545hrs (5:45am)

Location: Royal Canadian Regiment Memorial, Wolseley Barracks, Cnr Oxford and Elizabeth
Streets, London, Ontario.

Details: Dawn service followed by gunfire breakfast at the Officers Mess.

Dress: Coat and Tie/Business. No jeans allowed at the mess.

Vancouver

Time: 1800hrs (6pm)

Location: Victory Square Park, corner of Hastings and Cambie Streets, Vancouver, BC.

Dress: Uniform/Business.

Calgary

Time: 1900hrs (7pm)

Location: Cenotaph, cnr of 12th Avenue and 4th Street SW, Calgary, AB.

Details: Service will be followed by light refreshments at the Calgary Garrison Officers' Mess, located at 801 11th Street SW.

Dress: Coat and Tie/Business. No jeans allowed at the mess.

Edmonton
Time: 06oohrs (6am).
Location: Leduc Cenotaph (South of the city), Civic Centre 48A Street, Edmonton, AB.
Details: Service will be followed by a light breakfast at the Leduc Legion.
Dress: Neat casual.

Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan

Time: 1700hrs (5pm)

Location: O.B. Philip Building, CFB Moose Jaw.
Details: Non-Military Personnel will need to arrange access through POC by 18 April 08.
Dress: Neat casual. Military – Dress of the Day.

Winnipeg

Time: 1800hrs (6pm)

Location: Scandinavian Cultural Centre, 764 Erin Street, Winnipeg, MB.

Details: Service followed by a potluck dinner and a games night for members and guests. The Down Under Club will be joined by members of the Canadian Legion General Monash Branch, and Air Force Trainees from 17 Wing Winnipeg.

Dress: Neat Casual.

Halifax

Time: 0630hrs (6:30am)

Location: Fort Massey Cemetery, cnr of Queen and South Streets, at the grave of SGT Selwyn Keith Loveday (RAAF).

Details: Service followed breakfast at “Cousins”, on Lady Hammond Road.

Dress: Uniform/Business.

St John's, Newfoundland

Date: 24 April, 2008

Time: 1900hrs (7:00pm).  Open to the public. 

Location: Adjacent to Branch 56 of the Royal Canadian Legion in Pleasantville, St John's, NL.

Details: Service followed by reception in the Officers' Mess.

Dress: Uniform/Business.

Last summer and last fall, Canadian aircrews learning to fly our yet-to-be delivered Boeing C-17s were “seasoned” with some missions into Iraq. That would be same war Jean Chrétien said Canada wouldn't participate in. That's our first C-17 sitting at CFB Trenton in August on the day it first landed there.

I tore myself away from all the Conservative election scandal stuff to write this one up for tomorrow's papers:

OTTAWA – Canadian Forces personnel learned to operate Canada's newest military plane, the giant Boeing C-17, by training on American jets, including flying those planes into Iraq in support of the U.S. war, according to a memo written by Canada's top general and obtained by Canwest News Service.

Gen. Rick Hillier, the chief of Canada's defence staff, wrote to Gordon O'Connor, then-minister of national defence, in May 2007 that in the summer and fall of that year, Canadian military aircrew would fly into Iraq in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. That decision was taken without informing Parliament.

“Canadians have been very clear from the beginning that they wanted no part of George Bush's war on Iraq,” said NDP MP Dawn Black, her party's defence critic, “and they certainly don't want to see Canadians getting involved through a back door.” [Read the rest…]

Digging through the nearly 700 pages filed by the Elections Commissioner to support his request for a search warrant is well worth the effort. There's lots there that's already part of the public record or part of the record in the lawsuit against Elections Canada but there's a whole lot more that, it seems to me, is brand new.
Here's one paragraph from a second story I wrote tonight:

One of those initially worried [about the in-and-out scheme] was Andrew Kumpf, a senior executive with a company called Retail Media. Retail Media was the official advertising agent for the national party. That meant that, among other things, Retail Media placed the national ads on radio, television, in print and elsewhere.
On Dec. 6, 2005, just days after the election began, Kumpf sent an e-mail to Conservative Party officials, wondering if the scheme to have Retail Media place ads on behalf of local candidates would violate the Canada Elections Act: “While our thinking is that this option would be legal we are not certain beyond all reasonable doubt.”

The application for the search warrant served on the Conservatives this week was released this afternoon by the party itself but not to Canwest News Service, CBC, Maclean's and The Canadian Press. CTV, La Presse and The Toronto Star got their own private briefings with party brass but when I and those organizations showed up at the hotel where the briefings were taking place, hotel staff asked us to leave. Here's an excerpt from the story I just filed:

Doug Finley, the party's political operations director, Ryan Sparrow, its spokesman, and some party lawyers gave the warrant and supporting affidavits to selected media outlets along with a briefing on the matter.
Canwest News Service, The Canadian Press, Maclean's magazine and the English and French language news services of CBC were among those news organizations that were not invited to those briefings.
Indeed, reporters from those organizations were asked to leave the downtown Ottawa hotel where representatives from The Toronto Star, La Presse, and CTV were being briefed by Finley, Sparrow and others. Other media organizations may also have received a private briefing.

Just got the notice in my inbox this morning about a project — freshly launched — called Visible Government. This non-partisan group is trying to build online tools it hopes will improve the ability of Canadians to learn about and monitor the activities of the federal government.

It has three projects on the go — and it hopes to add many more — one of which is working towards creating some kind of standardized database for the disclosure of the expenses of politicians and their political staff. Right now, each department publishes how much each Minister, for example, spent to travel, eat, and sleep while doing the government's business. That's great but the data is published in an HTML table and only contains information about that one minister. If you wanted to compare that minister's spending with others, you've got to extract data from several HTML tables and that's a chore. And what if, for example, you wanted to compare Joe Volpe's spending on pizza dinners when he was Human Resources Minister with current Human Resources Minister Monte Solberg's penchant for pizza dinners? You can do it, but you are in for a long day of manually extracting information from lots and lots of HTML tables.

Some of us on the Hill have grumbled about trying to convince the government to take the next step with proactive disclosure (as this initiative is called) and publish the data in a way that is more useful to the public.

The Visible Government project, which may be modelled on the excellent OpenSecrets approach that tracks U.S. federal government disclosure info, looks to just that.

Visible Government is also working on a forum for tracking and discussing bills before Parliament, following the example of the U.S. site, OpenCongress. That's another great idea although the Library of Parliament does a relatively decent job of publishing information about bills at its LEGISinfo site and will even deliver an RSS feed about a bill you're interested in. Of course, the parliamentary Web site doesn't provide an online forum for discussion about bills nor does it do much in the way of tagging bills for search services like Technorati and so on.

Ken Dryden, you might have heard, once played a little hockey. I'm told that James Moore laced up the skates, too, and racked up a lot of penalty minutes playing junior hockey on the West Coast.
Dryden and Moore are now Members of Parliament and this week, during Question Period in the House of Commons, the veteran Dryden tried to knock down the younger Moore but Moore came into the corner with elbows up and … ok … enough with this extended metaphor: just play the clip. (3 min Quicktime video)