Late last week, Treasury Board President Vic Toews tabled the 2008–2009 Main Estimates. The Estimates are the vehicle through which spending for the current fiscal period is actually approved. The federal budget sets the broad paramaters for the government’s overall financial plan – it sketches out, for example, both spending and revenue — while the Estimates are the details on where the money’s actually going.
Now, just as Parliament must vote on the Budget, Parliament must approve Estimates. Both are confidence issues. If Parliament approves a budget, for example, but rejects Estimates, the Prime Minister can say he’s lost the confidence of the House.
Your federal government had planned to spend just over $220–billion between April 1, 2008 and March 31, 2009. That would be a 4.6 per cent increase for fiscal 2009 over spending in fiscal 2008, which ends in a few weeks. Most of that spending is what is known as statutory spending — spending programs, such as servicing the national debt or providing transfers to the provinces — which was already locked in by previous governments. But $79.1–billion of that spending is what is known as ‘voted’ spending. To use a metaphor from your household budget, this would be discretionary spending, money left over after all the real important bills are paid, like your mortgage.
So the discretionary spending, if you will, this year will be just over $79.1–billion. This being a Conservative government, Conservative supporters would have expected that spending to be less than it was last year or at least the same. Wrong. This discretionary spending is up 5.4 per cent compared to last year. The non-discretionary spending is up 4.2 per cent.
But — and it’s a big but — these spending estimates just tabled in Parliament were put together before the federal budget was tabled.
Given both production and secrecy constraints and the fact that the Budget was tabled two days before the Main Estimates, not all new spending plans can be reflected in the Main Estimates. Therefore, while these Main Estimates represent the major part of the Government's spending plans, additional changes to the amounts will be dealt with in Supplementary Estimates later during the fiscal year.
These Main Estimates represent the Government's expense plan as announced in its March 2007 Budget, as well as further updates as provided in its October 2007 Economic and Fiscal Update.
There was, by my count, nearly $2–billion of new spending in the federal budget although not all of it will take place in the next fiscal year. So overall government spending will certainly grow by more than 4.6 per cent and discretionary spending is certain to grow by more than 5.4 per cent.
As a benchmark, Canada’s Gross Domestic Product — the sum total of all economic activity in the country –grew by 5.9 per cent between the end of September 2007 (the most recent quarter for which data is available) and the end of September 2006. So government is planning to increase spending at a rate that is less than GDP growth for the third quarter of 2007 but I know of no economist who expects GDP to be growing by 5 per cent next year. So watch out for government spending to eclipse the overall growth of the economy.
So where’s the money going? I’ll be going through departments I cover over the next few days, but here’s the big picture (and remember, these numbers do not account for anything in the last federal budget):
- Ottawa will transfer $45.3–billion to other governments in Canada, an increase of 12.4 per cent compared to the year-earlier period. Within that category, the biggest jump — 16.6 per cent — was a result of a big boost in equalization payments. Ottawa will dole out $13.6–billion in equalization payments this year.
- Federal transfers of money to individual Canadians, for things like the Universal Child Care Benefit and payments to the elderly, will likely come in around $51.2–billion in fiscal 2009, a jump of 3.2 per cent. The child care benefit is costing $2.47–billion next year, just slighly more than the $2.46–billion it cost thisyear.
- Transfers to international financial organizations, like the World Bank, will jump significantly by 28.5 per cent to $693–million.
- Other transfers and subsidies will cost $29.3–billion, an increase of 7.2 per cent.
- Crown corporations will receive $5.2–billion, up 3.8 per cent year-over-year.
- General operating and capital expenses will climb 4.6 per cent to $55.3–billion.
- Public debt charges drop 2.9 per cent to $33.7–billion.