Corn prices set to soar – driven by demand for ethanol

In a research note released this morning, analyst John Roy of W.R. Hambrecht and Co., says that U.S. farmers must plant at least 93.2 million acres of corn for the price of a bushel of corn to stay at (U.S.)$4.10. That is still a very high price — the 40–year average for bushel is around $2.40 — but, as Roy notes, prices could go higher still because of a booming demand in North America for ethanol. Right now, most ethanol in the North American market is made from corn.

Consumers, investors, and businesses will get a sense of how much corn will be planted in the U.S. on March 30 in the quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

If there is that much corn planted, that would represent a 19.5 per cent increase compared to what was planted last year.

Rising corn prices is affecting the price of food. In Mexico, tens of thousands have been involved in several  demonstrations protesting higher food prices. The tortilla — a corn-flour product that is a staple of the Mexican diet — has become very expensive.

The University of Illinois has published an estimate indicating that farmers must harvest 12.5 billion bushels of corn this year for prices to remain where they are.

Roy writes:

Recent warnings from two University of Minnesota economists (Runge and Senauer) about rising food costs have hit the popular press.  Due to the ethanol demand for corn (projected to be 35% of the harvest within a few years), Runge and Senauer now see corn prices up 20% by 2010 and 41% by 2020.  Just 4 years ago the same team saw grain prices falling. They cite the recent problems with tortilla prices in Mexico as a good example of the type of problem we might see.  We don't see politicians changing their views on ethanol subsidies, however, this is something to watch.  Cellulosic ethanol would seem to solve this issue.  

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Postal codes and MPs

This is good news. Anti-poverty activist Daniel Haran has written some code which lets you match postal codes to federal Members of Parliament. His goal — and likely the goal of many other activists — is to harness the power of the databases for political and social justice purposes. Now you'd think it would be dead simple to get a list of postal codes mapped to members of Parliament and if you thought that way you would be mistaken. It's dead simple if you're well-funded professional marketing agency and can afford to pay the federal government thousands of dollars for this data. Don't get me started …
In the meantime, Haran has made the dataset available in a variety of formats that should let you plug it in easily into whatever spreadsheet or database application you're using. Grab it now before the government sues him to shut it down!

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Kennedy and Liberal MPs sue National Post

Failed Liberal leadership candidate Gerard Kennedy have joined with some Liberal MPs to sue the National Post and one of its columnists Jonathan Kay for libel. Here’s the release from the Liberals:

Former Liberal leadership contestant Gerard Kennedy; Navdeep Bains, MP for Mississauga – Brampton South; and Omar Alghabra, MP for Mississauga – Erindale, served the National Post, columnist Jonathan Kay and related persons with notices of libel over statements that the three politicians were involved in deals to exchange votes in return for changes to national security policy.

Included as a defendant in one of the notices is John Doe, representing the anonymous source cited by Mr. Kay in his column published in the National Post February 27th, 2007.

“Mr. Kay has suggested criminal conduct on the part of Mr. Kennedy. This suggestion is false and defamatory. The situation is particularly aggravated by the fact that Mr. Kay's article is based on the information of a source whose identity, motives and credibility have been concealed. We look forward to exposing Mr. Kay's anonymous source so that Mr. Kennedy may be fully vindicated,” said Mr. Howard Winkler of Aird and Berlis, LLP, lawyer for Mr. Kennedy.

The conversations involving Mr. Bains related as fact in the column never took place, according to the notice prepared by Julian Porter, lawyer for Mr. Bains.

“In his notice of libel, Alghabra denies his political and policy decisions are driven by his ethnicity and that he knew of and condoned the vilification of Bob Rae and Arlene Perly Rae, at the Liberal leadership convention,” stated Cliff Lax, counsel for Mr. Alghabra.

“We have enormous respect for the role of the media,” says Kennedy, “but these are equally very serious and completely false statements that if left alone would mislead the public and distort public debate.”

The service of a libel notice is the first step in a defamation suit.

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Desrosiers on Vehicle Efficiency Initiative

Dennis Desrosiers of Desrosiers Automotive Consultants says the Vehicle Efficiency Initiative announced this week in the federal budget may be the most expensive program yet in terms of dollar per tonne of reductions of greenhouse gases:

“ Another quick back of the envelope calculation on this whole feebate fiasco: 

  • $14 per litre of reduced fuel consumption
  • each litre combusted emits 2.5 kgs of GHG
  • 400 litres of fuel combusted results in one tonne of GHGs emitted
  • 400 litres X $14/litre = $5,600 per tonne of GHG emissions reduced

     At $5,600 per tonne this policy has the dubious distinction of being even more expensive per tonne of GHG reduction than the previous record holder – the Conservatives' transit pass tax credit ($2,000 per tonne,  because about 97% of the subsidy recipients were already daily transit  riders). [in fact it’s] The most expensive environment program anywhere in the world by a wide margin.

 

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The CTV Poll: Conservatives on the edge of a majority

The federal budget tabled Monday has struck a positive chord with many voters, giving the Conservatives a bump in the polls and heightening the possibility of late spring or early summer election.

The latest poll, provided to CTV News and The Globe and Mail by The Strategic Counsel, finds Conservative support at 39 per cent following the federal budget, up three percentage points compared to polls taken before the budge was tabled. Liberal support is unchanged at 31 per cent but support for the NDP, Bloc Quebecois and Green  Party has dropped.

Perhaps more importantly, Ontario voters seem to be jumping on the Conservative bandwagon. The poll found that the Liberals and Conservatives are tied for voter support in Ontario at about 40 per cent.

Here’s the numbers:

How would you vote if an election were held today?

  1. Conservative Candidate: 39 per cent (up 3 percentage points since March 10)
  2. Liberal candidate: 31 per cent (unchanged)
  3. NDP: 13 per cent (down 2 percentage points)
  4. Green Party: (down 1 percentage point)
  5. Bloc Quebecois (down 1 percentage point)

Quebec results:

  1. Bloc Quebecois: 33 per cent (down 3)
  2. Liberal: 24 (up 2)
    Conservative: 24 per cent (down 2)
  3. Green: 11 per cent (up 4)
  4. NDP: 8 per cent (down 1)

Ontario results:

  1. Conservatives: 40 per cent (up 6)
    Liberals: 40 per cent (down 1)
  2. NDP: 13 per cent (down 2)
  3. Green Party: 7 per cent (down 3)

The fine print:

Interviews were conducted March 20 and 21. The Strategic Counsel surveyed 1,000 Canadians and believes the results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20. There is a higher margin of error for regional results. For example, the Quebec survey is accurate to within 6.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

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Leading off QP today: Ignatieff vs Van Loan

Prime Minister Harper and Opposition Leader Stephane Dion were out of Ottawa today — Harper was in Montreal to give a speech and, later today, Dion will be introducing Al Gore when Gore gives a speech in Toronto. That meant that the Liberal deputy leader Michael Ignatieff led off Question Period and the Conservative Government House Leader Peter Van Loan handled the questions that the Prime Minister would normally handle. The two picked up where Harper and Dion left off yesterday — arguing about Afghanistan and human rights.

Michael IgnatieffMr. Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Lib.) (left):
Mr. Speaker, yesterday in the House we once again saw that the Prime Minister will say anything and do anything to win his never-ending election campaign. It is clear that this is a Prime Minister who thinks that no attack is beneath him, no shot is too cheap and no smear is too unbecoming.

If the Prime Minister really cared about the troops, really cared about human rights, really cared about the success of the Afghan mission, he would replace his incompetent minister.

Will the Prime Minister stop putting election politics before everything else and replace the Minister of National Defence immediately?

*   *   *

Peter Van LoanHon. Peter Van Loan (Leader of the Government in the House of Commons and Minister for Democratic Reform, CPC) (right) :
Mr. Speaker, Canadians see a pattern of behaviour from the Liberal Party. It neglected the military for 13 years. The Liberal defence critic calls the military names. He calls the Chief of Defence Staff a prop. The defence minister, a brigadier general with 32 years of distinguished service, is sneered at as the arms dealer. This is from the Liberal Party whose advertisements insulted the military by speaking of its horror at “soldiers in our streets”.

Those are the disrespectful deeds, words and ads of the Liberal Party and no, we are not making this up.

*   *   *

Mr. Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Lib.) :
Mr. Speaker, members on that side of the House do not seem to understand they have no monopoly on patriotism, no monopoly on support for the military, no monopoly on support for our troops in Afghanistan.

The Prime Minister is blinded by ambition and Canada is hobbled by his arrogance. By putting into question Canada's duty to uphold the Geneva Convention, the Prime Minister has jeopardized our international reputation.

When will the Prime Minister put Canada's interests ahead of his own?

*   *   *

Hon. Peter Van Loan (Leader of the Government in the House of Commons and Minister for Democratic Reform, CPC) :
Mr. Speaker, this government corrected an agreement originally entered into by the Liberal government on this very issue in order to ensure Geneva Convention protections are provided.

Yesterday the Liberal defence critic told the media, “It's a disgrace to ask us to make a choice between the Taliban detainees and our troops”. On this side we do not find it hard to make a choice between our troops and the Taliban. We stand behind our troops.

*   *   *

M. Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Lib.) :
Monsieur le Président, hier, et encore aujourd'hui, le gouvernement a présenté un choix ridicule à la population canadienne: « Si vous croyez que les prisonniers de guerre devaient être traités en accord avec le droit international, alors vous ne supportez pas les troupes ». C'est un choix ridicule.

Le premier croit-il que la Convention de Genève est optionnelle? Croit-il qu'on traite les prisonniers dépend de ce qu'on pense d'eux? Pourquoi tolère-t-il un ministre de la Défense incompétent et quand va-t-il le remplacer?

*   *   *

Hon. Peter Van Loan (Leader of the Government in the House of Commons and Minister for Democratic Reform, CPC) :
Mr. Speaker, the irony drips. This is from the member for Etobicoke—Lakeshore who said that torture is justified when dealing with terrorists.

What we have been seeing is a pattern of behaviour from the Liberal Party. It does not respect the men and women in the military, suggesting they are a threat when they are allowed on the streets in Canada.

The Liberals spent the past month saying that police officers are not fit to participate in panels that review traditional appointments, something that the Liberal government entrusted to Liberal candidates and Liberal Party executives.

Why does the Liberal Party have a problem with the Canadians who put their lives on the line to protect us?

Biz mag names its Top 10 'green' giants

Suncor Energy, one of the biggest operators in Canada’s oil sands (and, as a result, one of the country’s biggest generators of the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming) has been named as one of the “10 Green Giants” by Fortune Magazine.

Fortune wrote: “In a survey of 23 global oil companies last year, Jantzi Research, a Canadian consultancy, named Suncor a top performer, noting its environmental and greenhouse-gas management programs. Specifically, it has improved emissions intensity (the amount of oil it extracts per ton of greenhouse gases emitted) 25 percent since 1990. Ditto for energy, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide. Suncor is part of an initiative to develop carbon-capture techniques. And while Suncor hopes to double its production by 2012, its water management is so advanced that it expects to draw no additional water from Alberta's Athabasca River.”

Alcan, another Canadian company, also made the list.

“..the company has been able to reduce its greenhouse-gas output by 25 percent since 1990, while production increased 40 percent. Alcan's latest goal is to install a high-capacity process that increases energy efficiency by as much as 20 percent and lowers emissions.”

The other “Green Giants” are Honda, Continental Airlines, Tesco, PG&E, S.C.Johnson, Goldman Sachs, Swiss Re, and Hewlett-Packard.

 

Joe Comuzzi: Why I'm supporting the budget

Joe Comuzzi, who has been representing the city of Thunder Bay, Ontario as a Liberal since 1988, was expelled from his caucus after he said he would vote in favour of the Conservative budget tabled Monday. His leader,  Stephane Dion, says budget votes, like Throne Speech votes, are confidence votes and, as a result, the caucus must vote as a group.

This morning, Comuzzi released this statement:

I just want to be sure that the people are clear on my position on the budget. I have had the opportunity to represent my constituents for the past 18 years and over that time we have arrived at a point where our region is in a state of serious transition. This budget contains funds and addresses some of the critical issues we face today. For example the Molecular Medicine Research initiative is essential to this transition. The municipal government, the provincial government and private sector partners are all at the table with committed money, yet the Liberal Party expects me to be critical of a budget that can complete the funding formulae that would launch a facility that has huge economic and employment implications.

I have no desire to go against the Liberal Party however this is the right thing for the people of my riding. They are who have entrusted me to represent them for the last 18 years.

Furthermore, if you study the budget and it's implications there are opportunities for the forest industry to look at themselves in new ways. Research and development and knowledge – based opportunities in the forestry sector are clearly eligible to be part of it. The 195 million dollars contained in the budget over the next two years is designated to put knowledge to work for the social and economic benefit of Canadians. Why aren't we developing new and innovative manufactured forest products, new equipment design and silviculture procedures or linking pharmaceutical research to the Boreal Forest? The representatives of the labour and the forest industries need to redefine their industry, the old way of doing things has clearly changed. I love Canada and my region and if doing the right thing has consequences, I must accept them. However I will never, never put my gain in front of representing my constituents.

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Liberals aim for O'Connor; Harper aims at Dion

The Liberals have now joined the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois in demanding that Defence Minister Gordon O’Connor resign after admitting to misleading the House of Commons on the issue of Canada’s treatment of Afghanistan prisoners. In this exchange, from the just-concluded Question Period , Harper eventually rises to  defend his minister and does so with what the Liberals say is an outrageous smear on their honour. Here’s the play-by-play:

Hon. Stéphane Dion (Leader of the Opposition, Lib.) :
Mr. Speaker, there are few things that are more important for the honour of a country than to protect human lives under its duty, including war detainees.

It is clear that this Minister of Defence failed in his duty, even though he has often been briefed on this.
I have no other choice than to ask the Prime Minister to ask his Minister of Defence to do the honourable thing and resign.

Hon. Gordon O'Connor (Minister of National Defence, CPC) :
Mr. Speaker, as I said in previous statements that my statements here in the House were made in good faith, based on the understanding that I had.

I have taken action to ensure that our detainees are treated properly.

L'hon. Stéphane Dion (chef de l'opposition, Lib.) :
Monsieur le Président, le premier ministre doit comprendre que son ministre s'est montré négligent et incompétent sur un enjeu très grave pour un pays comme le Canada, soit la protection des vies humaines qui sont sous notre responsabilité.

Le premier ministre ne peut pas garder son ministre de la Défense nationale, à moins que le premier ministre dise qu'il n'est pas important pour le Canada de protéger les vies humaines sous notre responsabilité.

*   *   *

Right Hon. Stephen Harper (Prime Minister, CPC) :
Mr. Speaker, the Minister of National Defence has provided a clear explanation to the House of Commons. This government was, as he knows, at the time operating under an agreement signed by the previous government. We have since entered into a new arrangement with the Independent Afghan Human Rights Commission.

I can understand the passion that the Leader of the Opposition and members of his party feel for Taliban prisoners. I just wish occasionally they would show the same passion for Canadian soldiers.

Then, a few minutes later:

Hon. Stéphane Dion (Leader of the Opposition, Lib.) :
Mr. Speaker, the Prime Minister made two shocking statements. First, he said that the government does not care about human rights, and second, that the official opposition does not care about Canadian soldiers.

The Prime Minister must understand that he has insulted the entire Parliament with his statement and he should apologize.

Right Hon. Stephen Harper (Prime Minister, CPC) :
Mr. Speaker, I said absolutely no such thing. What I said clearly was that the government does care about this issue. That is precisely why the Minister of National Defence upon learning the information he learned has acted to correct the situation. We will continue to monitor the situation to make sure we make progress.

The only other point I am making is that I would like to see more support in the House of Commons from all sides for Canadian men and women in uniform. I think Canadians expect that from parliamentarians in every party. They have not been getting it, and they deserve it.

 

 

Northern Manitoba town will ban plastic bags

GThe northern Manitoba town of Leaf Rapids will prohibit retailers from using single-use plastic bags. The ban will go into effect on April 2. Here’s part of the press release being issued by InStore Products Ltd., a Mississauga, Ont. company that makes those green re-useable shopping cart bins (left)you often see some grocery store shoppers use.

“…By-Law 462, which will be implemented on April 2nd states that retailers will no longer be permitted to give away or sell plastics shopping bags that are intended for single use. The town of Leaf Rapids is the first town in Canada to do so.

With this important environmental announcement, the town will set precedent and send a message to other Canadian cities that we need to collectively raise awareness on this topic and take a more proactive role in preserving our landscape. Leaf Rapids is taking a huge step towards recognizing and responding to the detrimental impact that plastic bags have on the environment.”

Here’s some background on this issue published in the Winnipeg Free Press last fall:

Leaf Rapids giving free cloth bags to residents
September 2, 2006
By Jason Bell

Leaf Rapids town leaders figure the fight against pollution is in the bag.

The northern Manitoba community has stepped up its municipal recycling program by giving away free cloth grocery bags in an effort to phase out the use of plastic bags.

There are about 700 cloth bags available — that's more than each of approximately 550 residents in the community 150 kilometres northwest of Thompson.

The Town of Leaf Rapids has also implemented a levy on plastic shopping bags — three pennies per bag — paid right at the grocery store checkout. It's a program used by some communities in Europe and the United States, but it's a brand new concept in Canada.

“The idea is not to make money. The idea is to reduce the use of these bags,” said Bond Ryan, Leaf Rapids' municipal administrator. “The hope is that we can greatly reduce the amount of bags flying around (as litter) and in our landfill.”

Leaf Rapids usually spends about $5,000 annually to clean up bags that blow out of the dump.

The town is also buying plastic bags from residents for one cent and then sending them off to be recycled.  

 

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